The Fantasy Baseball Nerd: A Strategy For The Ages

It doesn't help me get women.  It's not considered "cool".  I should grow up at some point.  It's been called pathetic.

I know all of these things said about playing fantasy baseball.  Trust me.  My dad told me some of them last night as I watched ESPN's hour long fantasy baseball special.  Then again, when one of your leading "experts" looks like this, can you really blame anyone for making those sort of assertions?

Thing is, I've been doing fantasy baseball for the past eight years, and I'd say I've become fairly proficient (read:  my nerdyness and lack of social life has allowed me to be competitive on a year-in, year-out basis).  And so, as we move closer to the start of the real baseball season, and throughout the year, I'm going to be putting up some fantasy baseball related posts.  I wouldn't say to count on it, because you all know how bad unfulfilled promises can be.  But, be ready.

Day 1:  Strategy

Today, I'd like to talk strategy.  For the purpose of this or any further discussion on the topic of fantasy baseball, let's assume a standard, 5 by 5, head-to-head league (BA, HR, RBI, SB, R for hitters and W, WHIP, ERA, SV, K for pitchers). 

Some leagues I've seen, some of the categories included are just flat out ridiculous.  One league a buddy of mine is includes CI.  Yes, catcher's interferences are a category.  I'm not sure who wins in that situation.  The guy with more CI's, or less?  I've also seen perfect games as a category.  Plural.  It's happened 17 times in 132 years.  Come on.

The Idea, In Theory

Last year, I brewed up a scheme. Essentially, after years of doing stupid things like drafting players I liked and players I thought would be good, I wanted to try to monopolize a few categories and try to guarantee the most that I could.  Further, I started to realize that the fluctuation in the pitching market from year to year (Aaron Harang, anyone?) really made it a crap shoot and guys like that were only helping you with strikeouts as wins were basically pot luck.

So...the idea.  I figured, if I can lock up steals, I could lock up batting average and runs.  Draft steals and saves, in heavy doses almost exclusively.  See if you can get one of those closers that has SP eligibility so you can put another in your daily lineup.  Go with guys like Jose Reyes and Ichiro and Grady Sizemore.  With one or two of these guys in your lineup along with a few other guys that steal in the 20's you should be able to lock up steals every week.  Following my logic, most guys that steal bases score runs.  And, to score runs, you've got to be on base, so their batting average isn't terrible either.  Of the 16 guys to steal at least 30 bags last year, only two didn't score at least 75 runs or hit at least .275.  

On the other side, my idea had me going heavy with closers.  The theory being that their ERAs and WHIPs would be extremely low each week, and you'd be in the mix for both of those categories.  Logically, you'd take saves.  Throw in a few cheap starters that are proven for some wins, like Chien-Ming Wang, Joe Saunders, and Derek Lowe and you're now in the mix for wins without having to gamble on guys like Joba Chamberlain or Rich Harden who seem to wind up hurting more than anything in the long run.

The Idea, In Practice

This failed miserably.  I finished in 9th place, which is the lowest I've finished in a league since 2003, and the lowest ever in a 10 team league.  I sucked major (insert phallic joke here).  Then again, that could have something to do with the fact that my "locks" like Matt Holliday (dropped 49 RBIs from the previous year), Ichiro (BA dropped 40 points), and Vladimir Guerrero (worst full statistical year in career) all decided to have down years.  In a big way.  Then, another lock, Mr. Ming Wang, decided he couldn't handle running the bases.  

Still, besides bitterness, the strategy didn't work as well as I had hoped.  I did get a ton of steals and saves, but just like any other category, they came in fits and spurts.  As you could imagine, during those dry spells my team stunk.  More often than not, that was the case.

Coming up soon...All-Bargain Team