The Fantasy Baseball Nerd: All Breakout Team

Alright, I'll be honest, this one is basically for me, so that, at the end of the year, if any of these guys become big, or have break out (or bounce back) type seasons, I'll be able to shove it in anyone's face that I was right (once).

Before we get going, let me clarify what I term as breakout. For me, a breakout season can mean a number of things. It can mean the obvious of just coming from no where to have a huge season, a la Josh Hamilton. It can mean having a big year after many down years, like Ken Griffey Jr. in 2007. It can mean building upon previous good seasons, and putting it all together, like Derrek Lee in 2005. It can mean any of these things, and more. So, just because a guy was good last year, doesn't mean he can't have what I'm calling a breakout year this year.

As always, feel free to rip it apart in the comments.

C - Mike Napoli has already hit 46 homers in his career, 20 of which came last year. But, this year, he's going to do better. I'm talking 30 to 35 homers, better. The average won't be good, but with health and finally some full-time duties behind the plate, the burly catcher will rip it up. With that said, still don't expect much more than 80 or so RBIs.

1B - This is a tough one, because a lot of these guys have already had pretty good seasons. For instance, I'm one of many that thinks Joey Votto is going to have a big year, but it's not much of a surprise considering how well he hit last year. Another guy people have pegged is Billy Butler, who seems like he's been on lists like this for years. If he's healthy, the kid can hit, no doubt. He doesn't have a position, and seems to have more doubles-type power than homer-type power, but I think we'd all be happy with 20 and 100 from Billy B.

2B - A guy a lot of people are mentioning is Aaron Hill, but he already had what I'd call his breakout year two years ago. No, my guy is the speedster Alexi Casilla. Think Luis Castillo, but a better hitter. Way better. And, steals will come for Casilla. He only swiped 7 last year, but in the minors he averaged over 30 steals a season.

SS - Consider this my first divergence from the rules I set up above. Troy Tulowitzki already had his big year, two years ago. But, people seem to have forgotten about him on draft day this year. The guy was injured last year, never got it going, but he hasn't lost his stroke. Not to mention, he'll still be playing his home games at Coors Field, and with Matt Holliday gone, the Rocks will be counting on him to help fill in.

3B - Another guy that's on these lists a lot is Alex Gordon. I've heard that he's starting to try to go the other way more, not pull everything he sees. Which, is all well and good, but I need to see him hit well for more than a two week period before I endorse him. My guy here is another one that isn't really going to "break out". Ryan Zimmerman has had a few good years in his career, but like Tulowitzki, has completely fallen off people's radars. Zim can hit and now that he's healthy (not to mention, with Dunn in the lineup) he should resume his 25/110-type seasons.

OF - Adam Jones will steal at least 25 bases, David DeJesus could drive in over 90 runs batting in the 3-hole this year (if Bengie Molina can do it from the cleanup spot...), Coco Crisp with more playing time and no media to harass him should return to pre-Boston stats, once B.J. Upton returns on the 13th, he will tear it up (think power of 2007, speed of 2008), and not too far form 20/25 last year, Lastings Milledge will do big things from the leadoff spot for the Nats. I wouldn't sleep on Elijah Dukes either, who, if he keeps himself on the field, would be hard pressed not to go at least 20/20.

SP - They say the second year after Tommy John surgery is when you see a return to form, expect that from Francisco Liriano. He won 15 games last year, but Ricky Nolasco's ceiling is somewhere in the atmosphere. Matt Cain has only won 15 games the last two years while pitching to solid ERAs both times. I wouldn't expect his luck to be so poor for a third straight year. Figure between 12 and 16 wins. Another guy that's shown a ton of promise is Johnny Cueto, who I'd expect more consistency out of in his second full year. Bounce back year for Fausto Carmona, that heavy sinker is too good to ignore.

Again, I'm leaving off relievers because they're just too damn flimsy.

So, there you have it, my picks for guys to have break out or bust out or big or unexpected or kind of expected years. Agree, disagree, or simply ignore. You're choice. But, I'll still say I told ya so.

The Fantasy Baseball Nerd: All Bargain Team

On Sunday night I went through the best part of any fantasy baseball season, bar none:  the draft.

The excitement that accompanies each pick, wondering the seemingly eternal questions like, will this be the year Rich Harden stays healthy?  It's great fun.  After that, the season pretty much goes down hill.

The answer, by the way, is no.

Any how, we're all looking for bargains, players on the cheap that everyone else is going to sleep on.  You know what I'm talking about, the proverbial Jermaine Dye, that produces way above where he's selected on average in most drafts.

And so, I present my All-Bargain Team.  By the by, I'm judging what is a "bargain" on value as opposed to ADP (average draft position) in Yahoo drafts.

C - I've never understood the idea of taking any catcher before the, I don't know, 15th round?  Maybe later.  You really shouldn't have to.  Ramon Hernandez and Kelly Shoppach are two guys that will have similar numbers (lower average, but still...) to most top tier catchers.  Difference?  You can get those two guys on average 15 rounds lower.  I'd take the slight hit in BA.

1B - A deep position, no doubt, but you shouldn't have to go with a first basemen in the 1st round if you don't want to.  Sure, guys like Mark Teixeira will put up .300/30/100+, but, so do 4th and 5th round guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Youkilis.  People sleep on Gonzo, and I don't know why.  Forget the ballpark, forget how bad his team is.  They've been bad and good for a while now, and the ballpark is the same size.  3 of 5 fantasy cat's have increased since he got to San Diego (R, HR, RBIs).  As for the Greek God, he's another one that has trended upwards each year over the past 3, and plays in a great lineup in a great park.

2B - One idea I had here was Robinson Cano, primed for a bounce back year.  But, if you're not much for banking on that type of thing, Jose Lopez (on average taken in round 15) is your guy.  He'll be in the middle of the Seattle order (feigned Oh My!), has shown some pop (17 HRs) and only 2 other second basemen had as many RBIs as he did last year.

SS - The top few guys here are amazing, no doubt.  Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes produce on a level that later round guys can not match.  But, there are a few really good shortstops out there to be had later in the draft.  J.J. Hardy and Jhonny Peralta are generally available in the 9th and 10th rounds.  Both have hit over 20 homers each of the last two years, are improving, and don't have real first names.  

3B - You could go with Youk here, but a name that seems to be garnering a ton of buzz in the fantasy world is Pablo Sandoval.  People around baseball have been known to say that the two months not to pay attention to statistics in are March and September.  If you hold to that belief, you might want to stay away from Sandoval.  In a half of August and full September, the burly Sandoval (with catcher, 3b, and 1b eligibility, I believe) hit over .340 and knocked in 24.  If he's for real, who knows, but someone needs to drive in runs for San Fran, and he'll get his shot.

OF - Mark Nickakis (either way, really) is one guy you can get in the 4th round on average, that's a good bet to get somewhere near .290/25/100.  Magglio Ordonez isn't as fun or up-and-coming as a guy like Nate McClouth, but he's a near lock to mash.  Over the last 3 seasons, he's never had less than 21 HRs, 103 RBIs, or batted under .298 (all, curiously, right near what his career averages are).  Same goes for Raul Ibanez, especially in a hitter's park now.  Mags' (6th round) and Ibanez's (11th round) statistics compare quite favorably to those a few rounds higher.

SP - My theory is, if you pitch in the NL West, you're A-OKay with me.  There's one hitter, one real hitter in that whole division.  You know who I'm talking about.  So, in that line of thinking, the first guy I'd recommend is Chad Billingsley (7th round), who should be fine for Opening Day, already had his first big season innings-wise, and should be ready to stay strong the whole season this year.  Teammates Derek Lowe (13th round) and Javier Vazquez (11th round) are consistently producing, and the National League never hurt anyone.  Ted Lilly (17th round) is a steal, considering he could won that many games last year, and has had at least 15 three years in a row.  Other post 10th round names are John Danks (14th, same as Billingsley, should be ready to handle full year of pitching after big innings year last year), Scott Baker (14th, over 3 to 1 K:BB ratio last season), and Zack Greinke (12th, don't let impending psychosis, team, or my man-crush get in the way).

I'm leaving RPs off this list because there so unpredictable.  People in firm closer seats pop in and out all year, it's not worth getting excited over.  What I will say is, you can find value late, and that it's not worth going too early for them.  Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria, Jose Valverde had as many as or more saves than Jonathan Papelbon.  Not saying those guys will do it again, but the point is, it could be anyone.

Coming up next...All-Breakout Year

The Fantasy Baseball Nerd: A Strategy For The Ages

It doesn't help me get women.  It's not considered "cool".  I should grow up at some point.  It's been called pathetic.

I know all of these things said about playing fantasy baseball.  Trust me.  My dad told me some of them last night as I watched ESPN's hour long fantasy baseball special.  Then again, when one of your leading "experts" looks like this, can you really blame anyone for making those sort of assertions?

Thing is, I've been doing fantasy baseball for the past eight years, and I'd say I've become fairly proficient (read:  my nerdyness and lack of social life has allowed me to be competitive on a year-in, year-out basis).  And so, as we move closer to the start of the real baseball season, and throughout the year, I'm going to be putting up some fantasy baseball related posts.  I wouldn't say to count on it, because you all know how bad unfulfilled promises can be.  But, be ready.

Day 1:  Strategy

Today, I'd like to talk strategy.  For the purpose of this or any further discussion on the topic of fantasy baseball, let's assume a standard, 5 by 5, head-to-head league (BA, HR, RBI, SB, R for hitters and W, WHIP, ERA, SV, K for pitchers). 

Some leagues I've seen, some of the categories included are just flat out ridiculous.  One league a buddy of mine is includes CI.  Yes, catcher's interferences are a category.  I'm not sure who wins in that situation.  The guy with more CI's, or less?  I've also seen perfect games as a category.  Plural.  It's happened 17 times in 132 years.  Come on.

The Idea, In Theory

Last year, I brewed up a scheme. Essentially, after years of doing stupid things like drafting players I liked and players I thought would be good, I wanted to try to monopolize a few categories and try to guarantee the most that I could.  Further, I started to realize that the fluctuation in the pitching market from year to year (Aaron Harang, anyone?) really made it a crap shoot and guys like that were only helping you with strikeouts as wins were basically pot luck.

So...the idea.  I figured, if I can lock up steals, I could lock up batting average and runs.  Draft steals and saves, in heavy doses almost exclusively.  See if you can get one of those closers that has SP eligibility so you can put another in your daily lineup.  Go with guys like Jose Reyes and Ichiro and Grady Sizemore.  With one or two of these guys in your lineup along with a few other guys that steal in the 20's you should be able to lock up steals every week.  Following my logic, most guys that steal bases score runs.  And, to score runs, you've got to be on base, so their batting average isn't terrible either.  Of the 16 guys to steal at least 30 bags last year, only two didn't score at least 75 runs or hit at least .275.  

On the other side, my idea had me going heavy with closers.  The theory being that their ERAs and WHIPs would be extremely low each week, and you'd be in the mix for both of those categories.  Logically, you'd take saves.  Throw in a few cheap starters that are proven for some wins, like Chien-Ming Wang, Joe Saunders, and Derek Lowe and you're now in the mix for wins without having to gamble on guys like Joba Chamberlain or Rich Harden who seem to wind up hurting more than anything in the long run.

The Idea, In Practice

This failed miserably.  I finished in 9th place, which is the lowest I've finished in a league since 2003, and the lowest ever in a 10 team league.  I sucked major (insert phallic joke here).  Then again, that could have something to do with the fact that my "locks" like Matt Holliday (dropped 49 RBIs from the previous year), Ichiro (BA dropped 40 points), and Vladimir Guerrero (worst full statistical year in career) all decided to have down years.  In a big way.  Then, another lock, Mr. Ming Wang, decided he couldn't handle running the bases.  

Still, besides bitterness, the strategy didn't work as well as I had hoped.  I did get a ton of steals and saves, but just like any other category, they came in fits and spurts.  As you could imagine, during those dry spells my team stunk.  More often than not, that was the case.

Coming up soon...All-Bargain Team