The Fantasy Baseball Nerd: A Strategy For The Ages

It doesn't help me get women.  It's not considered "cool".  I should grow up at some point.  It's been called pathetic.

I know all of these things said about playing fantasy baseball.  Trust me.  My dad told me some of them last night as I watched ESPN's hour long fantasy baseball special.  Then again, when one of your leading "experts" looks like this, can you really blame anyone for making those sort of assertions?

Thing is, I've been doing fantasy baseball for the past eight years, and I'd say I've become fairly proficient (read:  my nerdyness and lack of social life has allowed me to be competitive on a year-in, year-out basis).  And so, as we move closer to the start of the real baseball season, and throughout the year, I'm going to be putting up some fantasy baseball related posts.  I wouldn't say to count on it, because you all know how bad unfulfilled promises can be.  But, be ready.

Day 1:  Strategy

Today, I'd like to talk strategy.  For the purpose of this or any further discussion on the topic of fantasy baseball, let's assume a standard, 5 by 5, head-to-head league (BA, HR, RBI, SB, R for hitters and W, WHIP, ERA, SV, K for pitchers). 

Some leagues I've seen, some of the categories included are just flat out ridiculous.  One league a buddy of mine is includes CI.  Yes, catcher's interferences are a category.  I'm not sure who wins in that situation.  The guy with more CI's, or less?  I've also seen perfect games as a category.  Plural.  It's happened 17 times in 132 years.  Come on.

The Idea, In Theory

Last year, I brewed up a scheme. Essentially, after years of doing stupid things like drafting players I liked and players I thought would be good, I wanted to try to monopolize a few categories and try to guarantee the most that I could.  Further, I started to realize that the fluctuation in the pitching market from year to year (Aaron Harang, anyone?) really made it a crap shoot and guys like that were only helping you with strikeouts as wins were basically pot luck.

So...the idea.  I figured, if I can lock up steals, I could lock up batting average and runs.  Draft steals and saves, in heavy doses almost exclusively.  See if you can get one of those closers that has SP eligibility so you can put another in your daily lineup.  Go with guys like Jose Reyes and Ichiro and Grady Sizemore.  With one or two of these guys in your lineup along with a few other guys that steal in the 20's you should be able to lock up steals every week.  Following my logic, most guys that steal bases score runs.  And, to score runs, you've got to be on base, so their batting average isn't terrible either.  Of the 16 guys to steal at least 30 bags last year, only two didn't score at least 75 runs or hit at least .275.  

On the other side, my idea had me going heavy with closers.  The theory being that their ERAs and WHIPs would be extremely low each week, and you'd be in the mix for both of those categories.  Logically, you'd take saves.  Throw in a few cheap starters that are proven for some wins, like Chien-Ming Wang, Joe Saunders, and Derek Lowe and you're now in the mix for wins without having to gamble on guys like Joba Chamberlain or Rich Harden who seem to wind up hurting more than anything in the long run.

The Idea, In Practice

This failed miserably.  I finished in 9th place, which is the lowest I've finished in a league since 2003, and the lowest ever in a 10 team league.  I sucked major (insert phallic joke here).  Then again, that could have something to do with the fact that my "locks" like Matt Holliday (dropped 49 RBIs from the previous year), Ichiro (BA dropped 40 points), and Vladimir Guerrero (worst full statistical year in career) all decided to have down years.  In a big way.  Then, another lock, Mr. Ming Wang, decided he couldn't handle running the bases.  

Still, besides bitterness, the strategy didn't work as well as I had hoped.  I did get a ton of steals and saves, but just like any other category, they came in fits and spurts.  As you could imagine, during those dry spells my team stunk.  More often than not, that was the case.

Coming up soon...All-Bargain Team

Should the Cubs or Rays Want Curt Schilling?

Curt Schilling says there's only a twenty percent chance he returns to baseball.  He hasn't pitched since 2007, and sat out all of last season rehabbing from shoulder surgery.

But if he were to come back, he says he'd like to pitch for either the Tampa Bay Rays or Chicago Cubs.

It's the obvious challenge:  take a team that hasn't won in 100 years, and break their curse like he did the Red Sox, or go to a team that until winning the American League pennant last year was the perennial doormat of the AL East.  Schilling could add to his legendary post season status, especially if he brought the Red Sox and Cubs a World Series Championship in his career.  Who else in baseball history would be able to say that?

Still, before we start worrying about where he'll go, he's not even sure he wants to pitch.  Like I said, Schilling said his chances of returning are just twenty percent.

"I'm hemming and hawing right now," Schilling said about the possibility of pitching again to ESPN Radio.  "I'll make a decision in the next couple of weeks."

Schilling has been a great pitcher in his career for stretches.  I don't believe he's a hall of famer myself, but he has had an excellent career.  He has 216 career wins, has a career ERA of 3.46 and has 3,116 career strikeouts.

His post-season numbers are amazing however, as he boasts an 11-2 career record in October with a 2.23 ERA.  The thought of having him pitch in the playoffs, especially for a Cubs team that hasn't won a post-season game during the last two years, would be enticing.

But his last full season in the bigs was fairly pedestrian.  He went 9-8 with a 3.87 ERA, and struck out 101 over 151 innings.  He also allowed 21 home runs during that stretch.  Those numbers aren't exactly the type of numbers a GM would covet, especially from a pitcher who will turn 43 this year.

If you're the Cubs, I suppose he could fit into the fifth spot in the rotation behind Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Rich Harden and Ted Lilly.  In the playoffs, maybe you start Schilling in games one or two of a playoff series, depending on how he's pitching heading into the series.  Plus, you'd have a guy who historically loves enormous pressure and wouldn't likely be fazed by the pressure the Cubs roster is usually burdened with in October.

If you're the Rays, he'd be entering a young and already crowded rotation, with Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine and David Price already responsible for rise of Tampa Bay in 2008.  It would be interesting to see him pitch against Boston in the ALCS or in the World Series, but the Rays appear to be a team that has the pitching to win it.  With more experience you'd think they could probably capture the crown without Schilling in the rotation.

And again, he turns 43 this year.

If you're getting the Schilling of the past, it would be a no brainer to have this guy in uniform as soon as he's ready to go.  If you're not though, imagine the disappointment for a Cubs team to add a guy like Schill and still not get to the promised land.  And if you're the Rays, adding him might slow the development of one of your young starters who needs the experience to improve.

What do you all think?  Post away.