The Fantasy Baseball Nerd: A Strategy For The Ages

It doesn't help me get women.  It's not considered "cool".  I should grow up at some point.  It's been called pathetic.

I know all of these things said about playing fantasy baseball.  Trust me.  My dad told me some of them last night as I watched ESPN's hour long fantasy baseball special.  Then again, when one of your leading "experts" looks like this, can you really blame anyone for making those sort of assertions?

Thing is, I've been doing fantasy baseball for the past eight years, and I'd say I've become fairly proficient (read:  my nerdyness and lack of social life has allowed me to be competitive on a year-in, year-out basis).  And so, as we move closer to the start of the real baseball season, and throughout the year, I'm going to be putting up some fantasy baseball related posts.  I wouldn't say to count on it, because you all know how bad unfulfilled promises can be.  But, be ready.

Day 1:  Strategy

Today, I'd like to talk strategy.  For the purpose of this or any further discussion on the topic of fantasy baseball, let's assume a standard, 5 by 5, head-to-head league (BA, HR, RBI, SB, R for hitters and W, WHIP, ERA, SV, K for pitchers). 

Some leagues I've seen, some of the categories included are just flat out ridiculous.  One league a buddy of mine is includes CI.  Yes, catcher's interferences are a category.  I'm not sure who wins in that situation.  The guy with more CI's, or less?  I've also seen perfect games as a category.  Plural.  It's happened 17 times in 132 years.  Come on.

The Idea, In Theory

Last year, I brewed up a scheme. Essentially, after years of doing stupid things like drafting players I liked and players I thought would be good, I wanted to try to monopolize a few categories and try to guarantee the most that I could.  Further, I started to realize that the fluctuation in the pitching market from year to year (Aaron Harang, anyone?) really made it a crap shoot and guys like that were only helping you with strikeouts as wins were basically pot luck.

So...the idea.  I figured, if I can lock up steals, I could lock up batting average and runs.  Draft steals and saves, in heavy doses almost exclusively.  See if you can get one of those closers that has SP eligibility so you can put another in your daily lineup.  Go with guys like Jose Reyes and Ichiro and Grady Sizemore.  With one or two of these guys in your lineup along with a few other guys that steal in the 20's you should be able to lock up steals every week.  Following my logic, most guys that steal bases score runs.  And, to score runs, you've got to be on base, so their batting average isn't terrible either.  Of the 16 guys to steal at least 30 bags last year, only two didn't score at least 75 runs or hit at least .275.  

On the other side, my idea had me going heavy with closers.  The theory being that their ERAs and WHIPs would be extremely low each week, and you'd be in the mix for both of those categories.  Logically, you'd take saves.  Throw in a few cheap starters that are proven for some wins, like Chien-Ming Wang, Joe Saunders, and Derek Lowe and you're now in the mix for wins without having to gamble on guys like Joba Chamberlain or Rich Harden who seem to wind up hurting more than anything in the long run.

The Idea, In Practice

This failed miserably.  I finished in 9th place, which is the lowest I've finished in a league since 2003, and the lowest ever in a 10 team league.  I sucked major (insert phallic joke here).  Then again, that could have something to do with the fact that my "locks" like Matt Holliday (dropped 49 RBIs from the previous year), Ichiro (BA dropped 40 points), and Vladimir Guerrero (worst full statistical year in career) all decided to have down years.  In a big way.  Then, another lock, Mr. Ming Wang, decided he couldn't handle running the bases.  

Still, besides bitterness, the strategy didn't work as well as I had hoped.  I did get a ton of steals and saves, but just like any other category, they came in fits and spurts.  As you could imagine, during those dry spells my team stunk.  More often than not, that was the case.

Coming up soon...All-Bargain Team

Hump Day Headlines

In this week's Hump Day Headlines, we discuss the Netherlands shocking upset of the Dominicans, LaDainian Tomlinson's choice to stick with San Diego, Roger Clemens' roiding, and what Cleveland State's win means for the NCAA bubble...

• Apparently they play baseball in the Netherlands. Who knew? Actually, the team is comprised of a lot of players from Dutch Territories and a couple players who's ancestry may have included someone who knew someone Dutch. Either way, their stunning upsets of the Dominican Republic have sent La Republica home and Rik Smits' countrymen to the second round in Miami. The Dominican team had a team loaded with major league superstars, such as Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, David Ortiz and Miguel Tejada. The Netherlands had, who, exactly? Some guy named Kingsale, Sidney Ponson, and a man better known for beating running sausages than anything else. Talk about your David vs. Goliath type match-up. La Republica's roster was collectively making more than $83 million, while the Dutchmen were making a combined $0.4 million. There were 23 major-leaguers on the Dominican team, and just two on the Netherlands. The fact that David was able to win twice though really is something. The Dominicans were a favorite to win the World Baseball Classic, and why not? They had a team full of stars! How is it that a team with six pitchers I've never heard of combined to shut down a lineup filled with not only major league players, but star players last night? Unreal. Maybe the Dutch will start playing more baseball, which I guess is one of Bud Selig's goals: globalize the game.
• Ladainian Tomlinson is returning to the Chargers after all. The star running back must really love playing in San Diego, because I'm not sure I could work for an arrogant jerk like GM A.J. Smith. Then again, with the weather and the Pacific Ocean in the backdrop I could probably be persuaded. So could Tomlinson too, apparently, as team president Dean Spanos was apparently able to smooth over the strained relationship between the running back and the organization. This ultimately allowed the restructuring of Tomlinson's contract to happen. He'll make a bit more than back up back Darren Sproles, who was franchised this off season. This deal had to happen for the Chargers. If Tomlinson wanted out the Chargers just wouldn't be as good. Granted, Tomlinson's numbers weren't all-world last year like they usually are. But he's crucial to a team that has flirted with greatness in the AFC for awhile now. Good job by the Chargers, and by Tomlinson for getting the deal done.
• Here's a story that's not surprising. Federal authorities found that the syringes, vials and gauze pads used on Roger Clemens that Brian McNamee supplied investigators all had performance enhancing drugs on them. Shocking! As we have mentioned before, there was no reason for McNamee to lie, because the man just doesn't want to live his life behind bars. Clemens on the other hand, could end up behind bars, since he has denied steroid use under oath. The Rocket still maintains that he was only injected with lidocaine and B-12. Apparently that's not the case, according to these tests, and the DNA found in the blood on the syringes (reported February 6th int he Washington Post). "I assumed, and I am not surprised, that the tests were positive for both DNA and for performance-enhancing drugs, because that's what Brian said all along, and there's not much doubt that Brian's been telling the truth," Richard Emery, the attorney for McNamee told the AP. "The confirmation of that fact, once again, just seems to me to be another significant step towards jail for Clemens." I agree.
• With Cleveland State's win over 17th-ranked Butler, two Horizon league teams will be heading to the NCAA tournament. That means bad news for the bubble dwellers, who can only hope this week that as few surprise teams as possible force their way into the field of 65. Other than their big win over Syracuse on that 60-foot 3-pointer in December, Cleveland State's tournament resume wasn't good enough to make the dance otherwise. Their other quality wins were against...well, nobody. So now teams like Florida, South Carolina, Kentucky, Northwestern, San Diego State and the like will need to make big moves in their conference tournaments, even more so now than before. And they'll have to sweat out every conference championship the rest of the week. The next few days are why we love college basketball. Teams are fighting for that chance to dance. And then next week begins the glory that is the tournament, with non-stop basketball action for four straight days. Ahh how I love it.
• Bonus Point: Did anyone see that Tennessee football coach Lane Kiffin told a recruit that if he goes to the University of South Carolina he'll end up pumping gas like everyone else there? I've said in the past Lane Kiffin is a moron. I don't think I need to say it again, do I? This guy better win a lot of games for those rocky toppers down there. If he doesn't, what a total loser this guy is.

30 Teams In 30 Days

New York Yankees: The Billion Dollar Bombers

(Over the next 30 days, BERNing on Sports will be previewing every team in the Majors, yes, even the Royals. Only one a day, every day, so try not to get too hooked)

Keeping It Real

The Yankees dumped a disgusting amount of money (recession or not) on three of the best free agent available this off-season. It came to a whopping 423.5 million. But, the reality is they actually trimmed payroll from last year (amazing as that sounds, it's true). Gone are heavy burdens like Jason Giambi (back to the Bay), Mike Mussina (retired), Bobby Abreu (allowed to avoid walls in Anaheim now), Carl Pavano (allowed to quit for another franchise), and Kyle Farnsworth (allowed to flex his muscles in purgatory...err, Kansas City). They added serious rotation depth, not just in A.J. Burnett and C.C. Sabathia, but also in the form of former ace, Chien-Ming Wang, who is healthy after missing most of last season with a freak ankle injury. Mark Teixeira may have seemed like a greedy pick up, but they needed him for a) his defense, and b) his bat (Jorge Posada and Robinson Cano aren't likely to get either younger or more consistent).

Alex Rodriguez Plays Baseball (among other things)

What can be said about this guy that hasn't been said? What more can he say or do wrong? Just a few days ago he said he wished he could play with Jose Reyes all the time. I guess Derek Jeter and Cano don't do it for ya? I can't say the steroids won't distract him, but, it won't be the first time (or last) he'll be bombarded with media coverage. My advice to Rodriguez? Take your time recovering from surgery, keep your mouth shut, and hit a home run or two when you come back.

And The Award For Most Time Spent On The DL Goes To...

With the types of players on the Yankees, the amount of money invested in them, and the history the Yankees have had with the DL, it's not a matter of who, but how often and how long. If I was running Vegas, the odds on favorite would be A.J. Burnett, and that's hard to argue with. But, to keep it interesting and because he's already starting the season on the DL, Alex Rodriguez has to make the list.

Running Proof the ROY Means Nothing

Just in case you hadn't noticed, Angel Berroa, AL ROY in 2003, is battling Cody Ransom (who at least can do this) for the back-up infielder spot. Apparently, striking out at a rate four times more frequently than walking is detrimental to your career success. Who'd have thought?

Bold Predictions

Robinson Cano will start (and finish) strong, bouncing back from a poor 2008. People have compared him to Rod Carew (easy with that) and while he's no where near that now, he'll finally have a complete season. I'll say a steady .295/20/95.

Phil Hughes in another attempt to distract people from the fact that his fastball tops out at 92 MPH, will try glasses again while pitching. When that doesn't work, he'll wear the same mask that Rip Hamilton wears.

Up Next...Friday, Atlanta Braves