30 Teams In 30 Days

Tampa Bay Rays:  Operation Smoke and Mirrors Going For Round 2

(Over the next 30 days, BERNing on Sports will be previewing every team in the Majors, yes, even the Royals. Only one a day, every day, so try not to get too hooked)

Keeping It Real

OK, maybe it's not fair to call the Rays accomplishments a smoke and mirror operation.  Then again, let's look at some numbers.  They had only two players hit more than 25 homers (Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena), they had only two regular players hit over .275 (Dioner Navarro and Jason Bartlett), and as a team they were in the bottom half of the league in several offensive categories.  But yet, they still made the World Series.  The reason was obviously pitching, as their team ERA was third in the league, an amazing statistic considering that not one of the pitchers in their rotation was what you'd call a veteran, by any stretch.  Still, they return nearly all of those young, good arms in Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine and their young core offensively named above (and add a certain Bat named Patrick).  The only thing (and it's a big one) that they have going against them is that their division didn't get any easier.  One thing's for sure, the Rays won't be an easy series any longer, but how elite they are might not be totally within their control.

Injuries and Incompetence

Basically, this is what accounted for the failures of the Tampa offense last year.  That said, they still were quite good, but should be even better this year.  Carl Crawford, after an injury riddled season, seems primed to bounce back.  Boss Man Jr. seems likely to do the same.  The one I'm not so sure of is Carlos Pena.  I'm in the camp that thinks this past season's poor average is more likely the norm than the previous season's aberration of a good average.  The previous six seasons of his career (before 2007), he'd been a guy that could hit the ball a mile, if he made contact.  I don't think he's a legit star, but rather a traditional, low average, high power slugger.

Not Household Names In Their Own Houses

J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler.  These were the core members of Tampa's bullpen for the duration of last season, and they did a damn good job.  Problem is, they may have done too good of a job, if that's possible.  Each of those guys finished 2008 with ERAs significantly lower than the year prior (Howell -5.36, Balfour -6.12, Wheeler -2.18).  Now, I'm all for career resurrection, and finding your way, but there's also such a thing as reality.  The likelihood these guys all pitch this well again is exceedingly low.  But, as a Yankee fan, I obviously wish them the best of luck.

If Vlad Guerrero's 34 Years Old...

Then Troy Percival's at least 50.  Or maybe it just seems that way.  After seemingly being done with baseball for good, he was rescued by the Cardinals, then came back to save 28 games for the Rays last year.  He had to become one of the only closers in history to have only one more save than walks allowed (28 to 27), but I'll have to look that up.  Either way, with each wretch of that tired back of his, you get the feeling he's thrown his last pitch.  He did go on the DL a few times last year and should be expected to do the same this year.  As you've seen with many teams (ahem, Mets) a good (or even competent) closer can mean the difference between a playoff berth and going home.  Not sure I bank on Percy two years in a row.

Bold Predictions

The Rays will not make the playoffs, but not because of their poor play but rather because their division is so difficult.

Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton will both have big years, bouncing back.  David Price (somehow not mentioned elsewhere here) won't have as good of a season as many hope for, and not because he's not going to be great, but because he's only 23, has only pitched on year in professional baseball, and usually these type guys don't put it all together right away.  He will be amazing at points, just not completely.

Evan Longoria's career taking off will force Eva Longoria to divorce Tony Parker, and the two will wed (as we all have been routing for) and name their first child Eva N. Longoria.

Up Next...Thursday, Orioles