The Fantasy Baseball Nerd: A Strategy For The Ages

It doesn't help me get women.  It's not considered "cool".  I should grow up at some point.  It's been called pathetic.

I know all of these things said about playing fantasy baseball.  Trust me.  My dad told me some of them last night as I watched ESPN's hour long fantasy baseball special.  Then again, when one of your leading "experts" looks like this, can you really blame anyone for making those sort of assertions?

Thing is, I've been doing fantasy baseball for the past eight years, and I'd say I've become fairly proficient (read:  my nerdyness and lack of social life has allowed me to be competitive on a year-in, year-out basis).  And so, as we move closer to the start of the real baseball season, and throughout the year, I'm going to be putting up some fantasy baseball related posts.  I wouldn't say to count on it, because you all know how bad unfulfilled promises can be.  But, be ready.

Day 1:  Strategy

Today, I'd like to talk strategy.  For the purpose of this or any further discussion on the topic of fantasy baseball, let's assume a standard, 5 by 5, head-to-head league (BA, HR, RBI, SB, R for hitters and W, WHIP, ERA, SV, K for pitchers). 

Some leagues I've seen, some of the categories included are just flat out ridiculous.  One league a buddy of mine is includes CI.  Yes, catcher's interferences are a category.  I'm not sure who wins in that situation.  The guy with more CI's, or less?  I've also seen perfect games as a category.  Plural.  It's happened 17 times in 132 years.  Come on.

The Idea, In Theory

Last year, I brewed up a scheme. Essentially, after years of doing stupid things like drafting players I liked and players I thought would be good, I wanted to try to monopolize a few categories and try to guarantee the most that I could.  Further, I started to realize that the fluctuation in the pitching market from year to year (Aaron Harang, anyone?) really made it a crap shoot and guys like that were only helping you with strikeouts as wins were basically pot luck.

So...the idea.  I figured, if I can lock up steals, I could lock up batting average and runs.  Draft steals and saves, in heavy doses almost exclusively.  See if you can get one of those closers that has SP eligibility so you can put another in your daily lineup.  Go with guys like Jose Reyes and Ichiro and Grady Sizemore.  With one or two of these guys in your lineup along with a few other guys that steal in the 20's you should be able to lock up steals every week.  Following my logic, most guys that steal bases score runs.  And, to score runs, you've got to be on base, so their batting average isn't terrible either.  Of the 16 guys to steal at least 30 bags last year, only two didn't score at least 75 runs or hit at least .275.  

On the other side, my idea had me going heavy with closers.  The theory being that their ERAs and WHIPs would be extremely low each week, and you'd be in the mix for both of those categories.  Logically, you'd take saves.  Throw in a few cheap starters that are proven for some wins, like Chien-Ming Wang, Joe Saunders, and Derek Lowe and you're now in the mix for wins without having to gamble on guys like Joba Chamberlain or Rich Harden who seem to wind up hurting more than anything in the long run.

The Idea, In Practice

This failed miserably.  I finished in 9th place, which is the lowest I've finished in a league since 2003, and the lowest ever in a 10 team league.  I sucked major (insert phallic joke here).  Then again, that could have something to do with the fact that my "locks" like Matt Holliday (dropped 49 RBIs from the previous year), Ichiro (BA dropped 40 points), and Vladimir Guerrero (worst full statistical year in career) all decided to have down years.  In a big way.  Then, another lock, Mr. Ming Wang, decided he couldn't handle running the bases.  

Still, besides bitterness, the strategy didn't work as well as I had hoped.  I did get a ton of steals and saves, but just like any other category, they came in fits and spurts.  As you could imagine, during those dry spells my team stunk.  More often than not, that was the case.

Coming up soon...All-Bargain Team

Teixeira Headed To The Bronx: Yankees to Sign Every Good Free Agent Available

As of slightly before 4 PM eastern time, word is that the Evil Empire has done it again.

Sources I have (including the NY Daily News, and, oddly enough, Facebook, which alerted me to the signing first), indicate that Mark Teixeira and the Yankees are reportedly closing in on an eight year deal worth over 170 million.

Talk about your all-time hogwash stories.  All those following the Teixeira "saga" heard was that the Yankees were distantly involved.  Earlier today, Buster Olney reported that the Red Sox and Nationals were the serious destinations for the 1B.  Brian Cashman has said that there wasn't anything on the table for the switch hitter.  

Suddenly (read: all along), the Yankees emerge as real contenders for Teixeira, and, within a seeming instant, they've signed the last remaining true prize left on the market.

How on Earth do you begin to analyze this?  Let's take a stab, shall we?

Yankee Apologist

On a baseball level, strictly on the field of play, it's a great move.  They needed a first baseman with the Giambino gone, and they went out and got the best one available.  Truth is, their offense outside of A-Rod is either really old (Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Jorge Posada) or really inconsistent (Robinson Cano), and adding a huge bat to protect Rodriguez is a great thing.

Yankee Hater

Here they go again!  What was it, one summer ago that they wanted to hold onto all their prospects, do this winning "thing" the all-natural way?  Yeah, way to stick to the game plan.  Not to mention, do they have to sign everyone?  First C.C, then Burnett, and now Teixeira?  Let me guess, tomorrow they'll sign Manny to a 6 year deal, Lowe to 5 years, and Oliver Perez to a 4 year contract.

Financially Oriented Yankee Fan (As If It's Their Money Anyway)

This idea that the Yankees have spent over 400 million in the past few weeks is ridiculous.  These aren't 180 million, one year contracts.  In fact, with 88 million coming off the books from last year, the Yankees salary will actually be close or even under where it was last year.  

Scott Boras

See, I told you there was a mystery team!

Not Yankee Haters, per se, But Let's Just Say They Wouldn't Call The Yankees Back After A First Date

This is awful for baseball.  The Yankees, more importantly, the power of the almighty dollar is ruining professional sports, at a time when we're simultaneously seeing the ruin of our current economy and financial structure.  When people are losing their jobs, right and left, these jerks are going out and dumping hundreds of millions on ball players.  The Yankees aren't necessarily to blame, other teams were offering similarly high amounts (the Nationals were, in fact, offering more), but, the symbolism of this move just demonstrates the decline of the true spirit of the game (editor's note:  we have no idea what that actually means, but "real" fans always say it, so it has to be true).

BERNing on Sports' Take (read:  Scott's)

As a fan of baseball's most hated team, I'm quite torn.  Are they better with him? Yes.  Is it a boat load of money?  Yes.  Is it my money, is it honestly costing me anything?  No, and not really.  Will I cheer for him, and still root for the Yankees? Yes, no doubt.

However, it'll be with a heavy heart.  Recently, I remarked to a friend of mine that I'm feeling more and more detached from the Yankees.  It just seems like its a new team every year, filled with a new, free agent du jour.  Gone are the days where the young stud comes through the farm system, and he's actually given time to develop.  Your either Joba Chamberlain or Ian Kennedy, it seems, in the eyes of Yankees brass.

While I can't say I'm thrilled about it, what I can say I'm angry about are people that will act disgusted by the Yankees.  They play by the rules, they have the money, and they're aggressive.  Albeit, overly aggressive, but still, if the Steinbrenners were running the Cubs or Red Sox or Dodgers or Angels, no one from those markets would be complaining.

The real crime is, with all that they've done, all they've added, what happens if they don't win the World Series?  Rumor has it that Moses (no, not Malone, the biblical one) will be up for free agency next winter.

And so, as a Yankee, I'm caught in between a desire to see my team win and not be constantly picked on by fellow baseball fans.  Between a desire to see them bring home another championship and to see them actually earn another championship.

In effect, that's what it comes down to.  Sure, they can win, and, they should.  But, did they earn it?  Are the Yankees better, just because they spend more? It's almost like the kid that used to beat the crap out of the weaklings at lunch for their money.  Was that kid really to blame for being stronger?  No, but, should he feel good about beating up a bunch of younger, skinny nerds?  

Regardless, I'll root, upset or not.  I'll watch the press conference, where he'll tell me how badly he wanted to be a Yankee (yeah, sure, like Jessica Simpson and Nick Lachey were together because she was sooo smart).  And, if they win, I'll be happy, though, it won't feel right.  It won't feel earned.