(Over the next 30 days, BERNing on Sports will be previewing every team in the Majors, yes, even the Royals. Only one a day, every day, so try not to get too hooked.)
Finally Some Pressure To Win
The Oakland A's normal course of action when they have a top flight player entering their prime is to let him walk at the end of his contract or trade him for four or five prospects before his deal expires. Remember the Mark Mulder trade to St. Louis? Or when Tim Hudson was dealt to Atlanta? How about letting go of Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon and Miguel Tejada, all in their respective primes? The rationalization for these peculiar management decisions was always that they could be replaced by players using Moneyball (more on that later). But considering Oakland is a combined 21 games below .500 over the last two years, management told General Manager Billy Beane to go get some bats in this lineup. Enter Matt Holliday acquired via trade, resigning an older yet still effective Giambi, picking up former White Sox shortstop Orlando Cabrera and taking Nomar Garciaparra off the scrap heap, all of a sudden this lineup may not be so bad. Is it great? No. But when was the last time Oakland was the team making key free agent acquisitions? Exactly, I can't think of a time either, at least before this off season. I'm not saying the A's will be good, but at least they'll be more watchable this season.
Would You Want Any Of These Five Men In Your Starting Rotation?
If you're an educated baseball fan, and you were told your opening day starter would be some girl named Dana Eveland (kidding), and he'd be followed by Justin Duchscherer (say that 5 times fast), Sean Gallagher, Dallas Braden and Gio Gonzalez, would you think your team had a fighting chance this season? The answer, clearly, is no. This rotation might be the weakest in baseball, at least in terms of name recognition, and as Scott pointed out, the Royals rotation at least has two viable pitchers in it. Beane usually constructs a pitching staff full of young talent, but other than Duchscherer, this staff has youth but not much talent. Starting pitching will be the Achilles of the A's all season long unless one of these guys blossoms in that big ball park (which is an atrocity, by the way). Otherwise, Oakland will struggle again in the AL West.
A Three Month Solution?
While I did give some props to the A's for acquiring Matt Holliday, let's reserve some of those props for the end of the season. Because those props go right out the window if the Athletics go par for the course and trade Holliday at the deadline or let him go after this season. Holliday is a young player, and while his splits do suggest he was helped a bit by Coors Field in Colorado, he's a good player who could be the the face of the franchise for a while if they keep him around. When asked about his future on "Jim Rome is Burning" on ESPN a couple days ago, Holliday said he was told by management he likely wouldn't be sticking around very long. As he put it, management told him they "don't really do long term contracts" and that they may not have the money to offer him anyways. We can cut the A's a little slack because they're trying to finance a new ballpark but can't get it, and the franchise appears to be in limbo. But if Holliday hits by the bay this year, this guy should be kept in the fold. Unless Beane has a left fielder in AA who has a .405 on base percentage. Groan.
How Great Is Moneyball Anyway?
Michael Lewis wrote a book about it, and the topic has been discussed and analyzed around baseball ever since it came out. The truth is, "Sabrmetrics" the system that is money ball has been around since Bill James came out with those boring stat magazines almost thirty years ago that no one took seriously at the time. Moneyball has certainly had an influence on the game since it was re-popularized by Beane in the 199os, in that on base percentage has become a far more important statistic than it ever was before. Bu the teams that seem to be most successful using Moneyball tactics also employ good baseball wisdom: signing good free agents, developing quality pitching, etc. I'm not saying that Beane hasn't or doesn't do that, because his track record certainly shows that he did and still does. But what I am saying is he relies too much on his system and not enough on common sense. Look at the pitching staff he has? It's terrible from top to bottom. I don't care how many of these guys throw a high percentage of strikes with a 1-1 count. It's still bad.
Bold Predictions
- Oakland will finish in last place in the American League West. Yes, last place. This team won't be able to win enough games out-slugging people and their pitching is bad, as I have already mentioned.
- Matt Holliday will prove his doubters wrong and have a big year in a big park. 30HR, 100RBI for the special occasion.
- Nomar Garciaparra will return to being a good MLB hitter. If he gets the at-bats, expect 20 homers and 85RBI.
Up next...Friday, Angels.
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