The Fantasy Baseball Nerd: A Strategy For The Ages

It doesn't help me get women.  It's not considered "cool".  I should grow up at some point.  It's been called pathetic.

I know all of these things said about playing fantasy baseball.  Trust me.  My dad told me some of them last night as I watched ESPN's hour long fantasy baseball special.  Then again, when one of your leading "experts" looks like this, can you really blame anyone for making those sort of assertions?

Thing is, I've been doing fantasy baseball for the past eight years, and I'd say I've become fairly proficient (read:  my nerdyness and lack of social life has allowed me to be competitive on a year-in, year-out basis).  And so, as we move closer to the start of the real baseball season, and throughout the year, I'm going to be putting up some fantasy baseball related posts.  I wouldn't say to count on it, because you all know how bad unfulfilled promises can be.  But, be ready.

Day 1:  Strategy

Today, I'd like to talk strategy.  For the purpose of this or any further discussion on the topic of fantasy baseball, let's assume a standard, 5 by 5, head-to-head league (BA, HR, RBI, SB, R for hitters and W, WHIP, ERA, SV, K for pitchers). 

Some leagues I've seen, some of the categories included are just flat out ridiculous.  One league a buddy of mine is includes CI.  Yes, catcher's interferences are a category.  I'm not sure who wins in that situation.  The guy with more CI's, or less?  I've also seen perfect games as a category.  Plural.  It's happened 17 times in 132 years.  Come on.

The Idea, In Theory

Last year, I brewed up a scheme. Essentially, after years of doing stupid things like drafting players I liked and players I thought would be good, I wanted to try to monopolize a few categories and try to guarantee the most that I could.  Further, I started to realize that the fluctuation in the pitching market from year to year (Aaron Harang, anyone?) really made it a crap shoot and guys like that were only helping you with strikeouts as wins were basically pot luck.

So...the idea.  I figured, if I can lock up steals, I could lock up batting average and runs.  Draft steals and saves, in heavy doses almost exclusively.  See if you can get one of those closers that has SP eligibility so you can put another in your daily lineup.  Go with guys like Jose Reyes and Ichiro and Grady Sizemore.  With one or two of these guys in your lineup along with a few other guys that steal in the 20's you should be able to lock up steals every week.  Following my logic, most guys that steal bases score runs.  And, to score runs, you've got to be on base, so their batting average isn't terrible either.  Of the 16 guys to steal at least 30 bags last year, only two didn't score at least 75 runs or hit at least .275.  

On the other side, my idea had me going heavy with closers.  The theory being that their ERAs and WHIPs would be extremely low each week, and you'd be in the mix for both of those categories.  Logically, you'd take saves.  Throw in a few cheap starters that are proven for some wins, like Chien-Ming Wang, Joe Saunders, and Derek Lowe and you're now in the mix for wins without having to gamble on guys like Joba Chamberlain or Rich Harden who seem to wind up hurting more than anything in the long run.

The Idea, In Practice

This failed miserably.  I finished in 9th place, which is the lowest I've finished in a league since 2003, and the lowest ever in a 10 team league.  I sucked major (insert phallic joke here).  Then again, that could have something to do with the fact that my "locks" like Matt Holliday (dropped 49 RBIs from the previous year), Ichiro (BA dropped 40 points), and Vladimir Guerrero (worst full statistical year in career) all decided to have down years.  In a big way.  Then, another lock, Mr. Ming Wang, decided he couldn't handle running the bases.  

Still, besides bitterness, the strategy didn't work as well as I had hoped.  I did get a ton of steals and saves, but just like any other category, they came in fits and spurts.  As you could imagine, during those dry spells my team stunk.  More often than not, that was the case.

Coming up soon...All-Bargain Team

30 Teams in 30 Days

Cincinnati Reds:  Dusty Baker's Doing His Best To Ruin This Group Of Youngsters

(Over the next 30 days, BERNing on Sports will be previewing every team in the Majors, yes, even the Royals. Only one a day, every day, so try not to get too hooked)

Keeping it Real

Brandon Phillips, at 27, is one of the elder statesmen of this year's Cincy Reds.  Gone are the Griffeys and Dunns and Sabos (wrong year?).  Surrounding Phillips are a crop of young players including Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto (who sounds like he should have his own comic book).  The problem is, they're just not ready to put it all together right this minute.  Combine that with a bunch of players that are either middling veteran players with significant holes in their games (Willy Taveras, Jerry Hairston Jr., Ramon Hernandez) or simply veteran players that have lost their touch in recent years (Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo).  It makes for an odd (read:  under .500) bunch, no?  Thing is, Volquez is for real, he just ran into a wall last year as many pitchers do in their first years.  Cueto, though his numbers wouldn't suggest it, is absolutely filthy.  He could put it all together this year, and I wouldn't be surprised.  Bruce had a great start to his MLB career, but really tailed off.  The adjustments he makes will be interesting to see after the league adjusted to him.  And finally, Phillips, after a down year across the board, will need to regain some of his swag if this team's going to be as powerful (offensively at least) as it could be.  Maybe it's just the hope that Spring seems to bring every year for bad teams across this great nation, but it's hard for me to be too down on this team, if only on potential for growth.

Why Does It Seem Like There's Always A Million Outfielders On This Team

Because there are.  Over the years, three of the guys that were breaking in were Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena (all of whom miraculously find themselves on the Nationals now...Jim Bowden, you dog!).  Throw in that Ryan Freel was at one point serviceable and Griff was around too, and you had a verifiable logjam in the outfield that never (and hasn't) cleared up.  Now, you've got Bruce and Taveras in right and center, which is fine.  Battling for left, not as clear cut.  There's Hairston, and then a whole other list of cast-offs, including Jacque Jones, Jonny Gomes, and Laynce Nix (remember when he was supposed to be good?).  Now, it's not nearly as cluttered as it was back in the day (say, 2005), but it's still not clear. 

You Can't Teach Speed (or How To Get On-Base, apparently)

Willy Taveras, despite an incredible dislike of getting on base consistently (or even hitting the ball in fair play and reaching base safely consistently) finds himself not only on another major league team this year, but starting in center field, and leading off.  Why?  Because the man can flat out swipe bags, Lloyd McLendon-style.  More impressive than leading the league in steals (did anyone other than Rockies personnel know about this?), he was only caught 7 times (career percentage of over 80 percent is damn good).  So, while Taveras wages his own personal campaign against Billy Beane and the moneyball-driven obsession with OBP, we can all just sit back and watch a man that really can run.  And that's about it.

Aaron Harang Swears He Really Isn't As Bad As He Was Last Year

How in the hell do you go from winning 16 games to losing 17 in one year?  How in the hell do you have three straight years with an under 4 ERA, in a pitcher's park, logging over 200 innings each year, to an ERA near 5 in under 200 innings?  How?  Forearm problems?  Weight issues?  No one is quite sure what went wrong in 2008 for Harang, but he did lose some weight and appears to be over any nagging injuries from the year prior.  Was last year a sign of wear and tear and ultimate decline, or is he going to revert back to the reliable fantasy pitcher we all know and love.  Not that I drafted him last year and held on to him for way too long as he killed me each and every week.  Not that I did that, or anything...

Bold Predictions

Homer Bailey will get his last real shot this year with the Stockings.  And while he won't be Roger Clemens (as he was touted to be) he will be serviceable (as he has never been) throughout this year.

Johnny Cueto will be over .500 this year, and while he won't be nearly as consistent as everyone would like, he will make a huge leap forward this year.  I'm saying at least 4 or 5 more wins than last year, and an ERA right next to the number 4.

Two quickies:  NO way on Earth Hairston lasts in LF til the All-Star Game (injury or inability, your choice), and Ramon Hernandez will again approach 25 bombs in a friendly hitter's park.

Up Next...Tuesday, Brewers