(Over the next 30 days, BERNing on Sports will be previewing every team in the Majors, yes, even the Royals. Only one a day, every day, so try not to get too hooked.)
Fourth Place Again?
Before the Rays got good, the Blue Jays were that team you could usually slide into 3rd place behind the Yankees and Red Sox every year for the division race. The Jays have had their moments where they've played not only competitively, but well. Over the last three years, they've won 87, 83, and 86 games respectively from 2006 through 2008. The problem is, a win total in the mid-eighties is not going to win in the AL East. Three years ago, they followed the lead of their divisional cohorts by breaking the bank for a free agent. They spent a boat load on B.J. Ryan from Baltimore for 5-years at $47 million. The deal hasn't totally worked out, because while Ryan has been good when healthy, he missed almost all of 2007 with an injury. Last year they broke the bank again, when they inked Vernon Wells to a monster 7-year contract worth $126 million. Problem is, while he's a nice player, who hit .300 last year, he's not the guy they thought they were getting, the guy who hit .303 with 32 homers and 106 RBI in 2006. Then again, Wells and Ryan are players emblematic of what Toronto truly is: a nice team that has its moments but just isn't good enough to truly compete for anything.
Moneyball or Goofball?
When the Blue Jays hired General Manager J.P. Ricciardi, they thought they were getting a "moneyball" guy who was going to revamp the minor league system and bring in a bunch of guys that walk and get on base. That hasn't really happened, though, as the Blue Jays last year ranked 17th in baseball in on base percentage and 10th in the American League (.331). Not to mention he's publicly ripped other teams players who do get on base, like Adam Dunn, and he dumped a perennial on base machine in Frank Thomas. If J.P. thought that acquiring a lot of light hitting guys was the answer, then he has certainly accomplished that. While Lyle Overbay is a solid major league hitter, he's one of the least productive players at a power position, first place. Scott Rolen is still a great defensive player, but he's a shell of the hitter he used to be at third. Alex Rios is a very versatile player who puts up good numbers, but isn't a world beater by any stretch. And the minor league system isn't likely to produce much thump in the near future. Trust me. I worked in the team's minor league system last year. Rookie Travis Snider looks like he'll hit 20-30 homers a year at some point, but probably not this year. And the rest of the system doesn't look like it'll produce much power. If anyone does from the current crop, it could be power hitting AA catcher J.P. Arencibia, but then again he's probably not reaching the show this season. Other than him? There isn't a ton of blue-chip talent to on the farm, except maybe for last year's first round pick David Cooper, who's likely to start the year in Dunedin at advanced A.
Roy Halladay Is Nasty...
And because of this fact, the Blue Jays will hang around for awhile if he continues to put up the numbers he typically puts up year after year. Last year he had a fantastic year, with 20 wins and a stingy 2.78 ERA, not to mention his 206 strikeouts and just 39 walks. He is great year after year but somehow seems to go relatively unnoticed and under appreciated. This guy is among the best pitchers in baseball, and can anchor a pitching staff as well as anyone. The question is whether these young guys around him can hold up their end of teh bargain. With A.J. Burnett moved on to the Yankees, guys like Jesse Litsch, who quietly had a good year last year, Shaun Marcum and David Purcey will finally have to put together years on the major league level that the organization expects. That's a tall order considering the pitching that's already in this division, but it's the only way the Jays can compete.
Look Out for The Terp...
Former Maryland lefty ace Brett Cecil has vaulted up the Blue Jays minor league system quickly, moving from low A Auburn in 2007, where he lead the Doubledays to a New York Penn League Championship, to AAA Syracuse in just two years. This guy is the crown jewel of the minor league system amongst pitchers, and don't be surprised if he's calling Toronto home at some point during the season. If his minor league success is any indication, Cecil promises to be a very good major league arm and could be the the guy the Blue Jays need if they're contending in August. He may not be David Price, but he could have a similar effect if the Jays need to add a pitcher late in 2009.
Bold Prediction
Adam Lind will hit for a higher average than both of his outfield mates, Vernon Wells and Alex Rios. He is coming along nicely and the 3rd round pick in 2004 may be primed for a very nice year for Toronto this year.
Up Next...Tuesday, (Devil) Rays
No comments:
Post a Comment