30 Teams In 30 Days

Colorado Rockies: Ode To The Humidor
(Over the next 30 days, BERNing on Sports will be previewing every team in the Majors, yes, even the Royals. Only one a day, every day, so try not to get too hooked. Except this is the last day, so maybe this message no longer applies. Yes, actually, it no longer applies. But I'm leaving it up here anyways.)

This Team Won the Pennant Two Years Ago
Remember that? The Rockies won their first and only National League pennant back in 2007, when they got wildly hot in September and early October to run all the way to the World Series. Of course, they lost to Boston in the Fall Classic, but at the time I was impressed with this team. I thought they were finally building a team that could win in that ball park, especially now that the humidor was "de-juicing" the baseballs and they had a lot of young and talented pitchers. Whoops! Last year sent Colorado back to irrelevance, as they finished 14 games below the .500 mark and they dealt with regression from players like Troy Tulowitzki (more on that later). If they want to be relevant again this year, they'll need their pitching staff to rebound, and for Tulowitzki to return to his excellent form of 2007. Otherwise, it's status quo in the Mile High city.

What The Hell Happened, Jeff Francis?
I would really like an answer, yet I know you won't be able to give it to me this year since you tore your labrum and will be out for the 2009 season. I thought you were good. I thought you'd be a star in this league that could buck the trend of pitchers faltering at Coors Field and you could anchor a pitching staff that would contend in the NL West for years to come. Yet last year you went 4-10 with a 5.01 ERA and were largely ineffective for the entire season. Maybe you can still be a great starter in the future and last year can be chalked up to your shoulder injury. I hope you get healthy, and I hope we have a chance to see what you can really be. Your franchise needs your arm, because while Aaron Cook was an all-star last year, the rest of that rotation could really use some help.

Buy Bleacher Tickets For Games When Jason Marquis Is Pitching
According to the Rockies website, to sit out in the outfield at Coors Field will only cost you no more than $15 dollars per ticket this season. So, Denver residents, if you want a good time, and a potential souvenir, go to the game when Jason Marquis is on the bump. It's incredibly affordable, and with this guy pitching in the think Rocky Mountain air, it's almost a certainty that once or twice a game the opposition will homer into your section, no matter where you sit in the outfield. Marquis was acquired by Colorado from the Cubs for Luis Vizcaino as a salary dump. And Marquis figures to only be in Denver one year, so if you want a home run ball you'll need to go to Coors this year. He seems like a nice guy, but he gives up a ton of home runs. He's allowed 167 home runs in his career in 198 career starts, and in a ballpark where the ball flies this could be a potential disaster.

Troy Tulowitzki Must Be the Face of This Franchise
When he burst onto the scene as a fantastic rookie in 2007, the Rockies had the best season in their franchise's history. "Tulo" not only played great on the field, but he embodied the spirit of what we thought was the start of something great on Blake Street. With last season's down year, he'll need to pick up the production to help carry this line up. Matt Holliday now plays for Oakland, and Todd Helton is old, so the youth in this group will have to perform. Guys like Garrett Atkins, who's a budding star, along with Chris Ianetta and Brad Hawpe will be counted upon to keep the Mile High City rocking, but it's Tulowitzki who has that David Wright/Derek Jeter like image if he's healthy that will keep the Rockies in the news.

Bold Predictions

1. Colorado will finish this season above .500, even with the pitching issues they have. Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook will be enough for this team to win maybe 84 games.
2. My boy Tulowitzki will return to form, and hit close to .300, with 20 homers and drive in 100.
3. Huston Street will save 30 games this year, and him and Manny Corpas will provide the Rockies with a nice 8th and 9th inning combo.

Up next....Post Season Awards...Playoff Picks

The Fantasy Baseball Nerd: A Strategy For The Ages

It doesn't help me get women.  It's not considered "cool".  I should grow up at some point.  It's been called pathetic.

I know all of these things said about playing fantasy baseball.  Trust me.  My dad told me some of them last night as I watched ESPN's hour long fantasy baseball special.  Then again, when one of your leading "experts" looks like this, can you really blame anyone for making those sort of assertions?

Thing is, I've been doing fantasy baseball for the past eight years, and I'd say I've become fairly proficient (read:  my nerdyness and lack of social life has allowed me to be competitive on a year-in, year-out basis).  And so, as we move closer to the start of the real baseball season, and throughout the year, I'm going to be putting up some fantasy baseball related posts.  I wouldn't say to count on it, because you all know how bad unfulfilled promises can be.  But, be ready.

Day 1:  Strategy

Today, I'd like to talk strategy.  For the purpose of this or any further discussion on the topic of fantasy baseball, let's assume a standard, 5 by 5, head-to-head league (BA, HR, RBI, SB, R for hitters and W, WHIP, ERA, SV, K for pitchers). 

Some leagues I've seen, some of the categories included are just flat out ridiculous.  One league a buddy of mine is includes CI.  Yes, catcher's interferences are a category.  I'm not sure who wins in that situation.  The guy with more CI's, or less?  I've also seen perfect games as a category.  Plural.  It's happened 17 times in 132 years.  Come on.

The Idea, In Theory

Last year, I brewed up a scheme. Essentially, after years of doing stupid things like drafting players I liked and players I thought would be good, I wanted to try to monopolize a few categories and try to guarantee the most that I could.  Further, I started to realize that the fluctuation in the pitching market from year to year (Aaron Harang, anyone?) really made it a crap shoot and guys like that were only helping you with strikeouts as wins were basically pot luck.

So...the idea.  I figured, if I can lock up steals, I could lock up batting average and runs.  Draft steals and saves, in heavy doses almost exclusively.  See if you can get one of those closers that has SP eligibility so you can put another in your daily lineup.  Go with guys like Jose Reyes and Ichiro and Grady Sizemore.  With one or two of these guys in your lineup along with a few other guys that steal in the 20's you should be able to lock up steals every week.  Following my logic, most guys that steal bases score runs.  And, to score runs, you've got to be on base, so their batting average isn't terrible either.  Of the 16 guys to steal at least 30 bags last year, only two didn't score at least 75 runs or hit at least .275.  

On the other side, my idea had me going heavy with closers.  The theory being that their ERAs and WHIPs would be extremely low each week, and you'd be in the mix for both of those categories.  Logically, you'd take saves.  Throw in a few cheap starters that are proven for some wins, like Chien-Ming Wang, Joe Saunders, and Derek Lowe and you're now in the mix for wins without having to gamble on guys like Joba Chamberlain or Rich Harden who seem to wind up hurting more than anything in the long run.

The Idea, In Practice

This failed miserably.  I finished in 9th place, which is the lowest I've finished in a league since 2003, and the lowest ever in a 10 team league.  I sucked major (insert phallic joke here).  Then again, that could have something to do with the fact that my "locks" like Matt Holliday (dropped 49 RBIs from the previous year), Ichiro (BA dropped 40 points), and Vladimir Guerrero (worst full statistical year in career) all decided to have down years.  In a big way.  Then, another lock, Mr. Ming Wang, decided he couldn't handle running the bases.  

Still, besides bitterness, the strategy didn't work as well as I had hoped.  I did get a ton of steals and saves, but just like any other category, they came in fits and spurts.  As you could imagine, during those dry spells my team stunk.  More often than not, that was the case.

Coming up soon...All-Bargain Team

30 Teams In 30 Days

Oakland Athletics: Moneyball Madness
(Over the next 30 days, BERNing on Sports will be previewing every team in the Majors, yes, even the Royals. Only one a day, every day, so try not to get too hooked.)


Finally Some Pressure To Win
The Oakland A's normal course of action when they have a top flight player entering their prime is to let him walk at the end of his contract or trade him for four or five prospects before his deal expires. Remember the Mark Mulder trade to St. Louis? Or when Tim Hudson was dealt to Atlanta? How about letting go of Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon and Miguel Tejada, all in their respective primes? The rationalization for these peculiar management decisions was always that they could be replaced by players using Moneyball (more on that later). But considering Oakland is a combined 21 games below .500 over the last two years, management told General Manager Billy Beane to go get some bats in this lineup. Enter Matt Holliday acquired via trade, resigning an older yet still effective Giambi, picking up former White Sox shortstop Orlando Cabrera and taking Nomar Garciaparra off the scrap heap, all of a sudden this lineup may not be so bad. Is it great? No. But when was the last time Oakland was the team making key free agent acquisitions? Exactly, I can't think of a time either, at least before this off season. I'm not saying the A's will be good, but at least they'll be more watchable this season.

Would You Want Any Of These Five Men In Your Starting Rotation?
If you're an educated baseball fan, and you were told your opening day starter would be some girl named Dana Eveland (kidding), and he'd be followed by Justin Duchscherer (say that 5 times fast), Sean Gallagher, Dallas Braden and Gio Gonzalez, would you think your team had a fighting chance this season? The answer, clearly, is no. This rotation might be the weakest in baseball, at least in terms of name recognition, and as Scott pointed out, the Royals rotation at least has two viable pitchers in it. Beane usually constructs a pitching staff full of young talent, but other than Duchscherer, this staff has youth but not much talent. Starting pitching will be the Achilles of the A's all season long unless one of these guys blossoms in that big ball park (which is an atrocity, by the way). Otherwise, Oakland will struggle again in the AL West.

A Three Month Solution?
While I did give some props to the A's for acquiring Matt Holliday, let's reserve some of those props for the end of the season. Because those props go right out the window if the Athletics go par for the course and trade Holliday at the deadline or let him go after this season. Holliday is a young player, and while his splits do suggest he was helped a bit by Coors Field in Colorado, he's a good player who could be the the face of the franchise for a while if they keep him around. When asked about his future on "Jim Rome is Burning" on ESPN a couple days ago, Holliday said he was told by management he likely wouldn't be sticking around very long. As he put it, management told him they "don't really do long term contracts" and that they may not have the money to offer him anyways. We can cut the A's a little slack because they're trying to finance a new ballpark but can't get it, and the franchise appears to be in limbo. But if Holliday hits by the bay this year, this guy should be kept in the fold. Unless Beane has a left fielder in AA who has a .405 on base percentage. Groan.

How Great Is Moneyball Anyway?
Michael Lewis wrote a book about it, and the topic has been discussed and analyzed around baseball ever since it came out. The truth is, "Sabrmetrics" the system that is money ball has been around since Bill James came out with those boring stat magazines almost thirty years ago that no one took seriously at the time. Moneyball has certainly had an influence on the game since it was re-popularized by Beane in the 199os, in that on base percentage has become a far more important statistic than it ever was before. Bu the teams that seem to be most successful using Moneyball tactics also employ good baseball wisdom: signing good free agents, developing quality pitching, etc. I'm not saying that Beane hasn't or doesn't do that, because his track record certainly shows that he did and still does. But what I am saying is he relies too much on his system and not enough on common sense. Look at the pitching staff he has? It's terrible from top to bottom. I don't care how many of these guys throw a high percentage of strikes with a 1-1 count. It's still bad.

Bold Predictions

1. Oakland will finish in last place in the American League West. Yes, last place. This team won't be able to win enough games out-slugging people and their pitching is bad, as I have already mentioned.
2. Matt Holliday will prove his doubters wrong and have a big year in a big park. 30HR, 100RBI for the special occasion.
3. Nomar Garciaparra will return to being a good MLB hitter. If he gets the at-bats, expect 20 homers and 85RBI.

Up next...Friday, Angels.

The World Baseball Classic: It Sounds Fun

That's about all I can say for the WBC.  Honestly.  

I've tuned in for bits and pieces of random games, read some recaps, watched some highlights.  I even read a Jeff Passan column.

It's been discussed on the radio, on this blog, and in our podcasts, all with the general intent of diagnosing what's wrong with it.

All I can say is, I still don't care much, regardless of any David Wright heroics or Adam Dunn hysterics (the man's a butcher in the outfield...c'mon Matt Holliday, this has to make you want to play next time).  The fact of the matter is, our team still treats this like it's an exhibition.  Not all of our best players play, the regular season is more important, and that just isn't good enough to beat teams playing like its the 7th game of the Fall Classic (not to be confused with the World Baseball Classic, which isn't to be confused with the World Series).  

From what I can gather, a bunch of these other teams are really getting into it.  Apparently, the games played in San Juan were jumping.  Watching only an inning of tonight's championship made it clear how nuts it was in LA.  

And so, I'm happy for them.  I still don't care.  But, I'm happy someone does.

Hump Day Headlines

In this week's Hump Day Headlines, we discuss the stumbling Celtics, Jeff Jagodzinski, the A's actually signing free agents, and taking a page out of Mike Tyson's book...

• After a record setting 27-2 start, which was actually ahead of the pace of the '95-'96 Bulls, the Boston Celtics are coming back to earth.  Well, to be fair, they're likely somewhere between the all-world start they had and their recent struggles.  Boston has lost 5 of 7, including losses at Golden State, at New York, and last night in Charlotte.  This is the same team that won 19 straight games, and now they've lost to the Knicks and Bobcats.  "We told our team before the season it will be 82 game 7s,"  Celtics coach Doc Rivers said after last night's puzzling loss to the 13-22 Bobcats.  "On the nights we're not ready mentally for that, we're going to have to get lucky and play over our head to win."  The Celtics are obviously the team to beat in the NBA, regardless of the fact that they now have more losses than the Lakers and Cavaliers, since they are defending their NBA championship of last season.  And, thankfully, unless they go 43-3 the rest of the way, the Bulls record will stay in tact.
• Boston College head football coach Jeff Jagodzinski met with the New York Jets yesterday to discuss their head coaching vacancy, despite the fact that he would likely be fired for accepting the interview.  ESPN.com is reporting that Jagodzinski will not be retained by B.C. for interviewing with the Jets, and Yahoo! Sports says Athletic Director Gene DeFilippo will meet with Jagodzinski today to discuss his situation.  Jeff Jagodzinski must know one of two things:  either A) he knows he's going to be hired by the Jets, or B) he has another college or NFL job locked up as a back up plan if he is not hired by New York.  Otherwise, he is willingly being fired from his job.  But more importantly, and check out the podcast for more on this, the fact that Boston College is doing this to him makes them an utter disgrace of a place to work.  It is understood in this industry and in many others that coaches will bounce around from job to job to advance their careers.  If B.C. can't understand that, I pity the fool that agrees to be their next football coach.
• Quietly, the Oakland A's are actually making strides to be a legitimate force in the AL West next season.  First they added Matt Holliday by making a deal with the Rockies, and now they're close to signing Jason Giambi.  That's a lot of pop to add to the middle of your lineup, even if the Giambino is no longer the player he once was.  Still though, while he only hit .247 last year, he hit 32 home runs and drove in 96 runs.  He also got on base at a .373 clip.  Granted, the 2002 MVP would not be returning, but a good power bat would be.  As for Holliday, people always want to question how good he really is since he's played his entire career in Colorado.  Now that he'll be playing in the cavern in Oakland we'll see how good he truly is.  I believe he will be very good, even though his career batting average at Coors Field was .357, a whopping seventy-seven points higher than his career average of .280 on the road.
• Since many people don't follow hockey, here's something even the non-hockey fan would find disturbing, and probably amusing at the same time.  First, check out the headline of this Yahoo! Sports article and tell me you don't find the childish innuendo amusing: "Ruutu bites Peters in Sabres 4-2 win over Senators".  Now that you've had a chance to snicker, or chuckle, or decide I'm pathetic for finding this funny, here's what happened.  Senators winger Jarkko Ruutu bit the thumb of Sabres winger Andrew Peters in a fight last night between the two teams.  Peters' thumb was still in his glove at the time.  "Just the fact that that happened it's unfortunate," Peters said after the game.  "It's not good for the game of hockey."  Clearly, it's not.  And here's the best part, Ruutu was not penalized, and Peters was.  Since the fight was instigated by Peters, he served time in the penalty box.  Maybe Ruutu was inspired by this little ditty from our old pal Mike Tyson:

• This video is still unbelievable.  But the incident last night?  Just another black eye for the sport of hockey.