The Fantasy Baseball Nerd: A Strategy For The Ages

It doesn't help me get women.  It's not considered "cool".  I should grow up at some point.  It's been called pathetic.

I know all of these things said about playing fantasy baseball.  Trust me.  My dad told me some of them last night as I watched ESPN's hour long fantasy baseball special.  Then again, when one of your leading "experts" looks like this, can you really blame anyone for making those sort of assertions?

Thing is, I've been doing fantasy baseball for the past eight years, and I'd say I've become fairly proficient (read:  my nerdyness and lack of social life has allowed me to be competitive on a year-in, year-out basis).  And so, as we move closer to the start of the real baseball season, and throughout the year, I'm going to be putting up some fantasy baseball related posts.  I wouldn't say to count on it, because you all know how bad unfulfilled promises can be.  But, be ready.

Day 1:  Strategy

Today, I'd like to talk strategy.  For the purpose of this or any further discussion on the topic of fantasy baseball, let's assume a standard, 5 by 5, head-to-head league (BA, HR, RBI, SB, R for hitters and W, WHIP, ERA, SV, K for pitchers). 

Some leagues I've seen, some of the categories included are just flat out ridiculous.  One league a buddy of mine is includes CI.  Yes, catcher's interferences are a category.  I'm not sure who wins in that situation.  The guy with more CI's, or less?  I've also seen perfect games as a category.  Plural.  It's happened 17 times in 132 years.  Come on.

The Idea, In Theory

Last year, I brewed up a scheme. Essentially, after years of doing stupid things like drafting players I liked and players I thought would be good, I wanted to try to monopolize a few categories and try to guarantee the most that I could.  Further, I started to realize that the fluctuation in the pitching market from year to year (Aaron Harang, anyone?) really made it a crap shoot and guys like that were only helping you with strikeouts as wins were basically pot luck.

So...the idea.  I figured, if I can lock up steals, I could lock up batting average and runs.  Draft steals and saves, in heavy doses almost exclusively.  See if you can get one of those closers that has SP eligibility so you can put another in your daily lineup.  Go with guys like Jose Reyes and Ichiro and Grady Sizemore.  With one or two of these guys in your lineup along with a few other guys that steal in the 20's you should be able to lock up steals every week.  Following my logic, most guys that steal bases score runs.  And, to score runs, you've got to be on base, so their batting average isn't terrible either.  Of the 16 guys to steal at least 30 bags last year, only two didn't score at least 75 runs or hit at least .275.  

On the other side, my idea had me going heavy with closers.  The theory being that their ERAs and WHIPs would be extremely low each week, and you'd be in the mix for both of those categories.  Logically, you'd take saves.  Throw in a few cheap starters that are proven for some wins, like Chien-Ming Wang, Joe Saunders, and Derek Lowe and you're now in the mix for wins without having to gamble on guys like Joba Chamberlain or Rich Harden who seem to wind up hurting more than anything in the long run.

The Idea, In Practice

This failed miserably.  I finished in 9th place, which is the lowest I've finished in a league since 2003, and the lowest ever in a 10 team league.  I sucked major (insert phallic joke here).  Then again, that could have something to do with the fact that my "locks" like Matt Holliday (dropped 49 RBIs from the previous year), Ichiro (BA dropped 40 points), and Vladimir Guerrero (worst full statistical year in career) all decided to have down years.  In a big way.  Then, another lock, Mr. Ming Wang, decided he couldn't handle running the bases.  

Still, besides bitterness, the strategy didn't work as well as I had hoped.  I did get a ton of steals and saves, but just like any other category, they came in fits and spurts.  As you could imagine, during those dry spells my team stunk.  More often than not, that was the case.

Coming up soon...All-Bargain Team

30 Teams in 30 Days

Kansas City Royals: Officially Ready To Move On To Mediocrity

(Over the next 30 days, BERNing on Sports will be previewing every team in the Majors, yes, even the Royals. We finally got to them. Yippy! Only one a day, every day, so try not to get too hooked)

Keeping It Real

Honestly, I can't express how much I love this team. I've loved the Royals since I was a young boy. Well, that's not exactly true. Maybe since my freshman year in college. But still, the infatuation is real. Last year was the first time in 5 years that the team didn't finish in dead last. They still weren't over .500 (something they've done only once---amazingly---since the strike), but I'm not giving up hope. The top two in the rotation are good (Zack Greinke and Gil Meche), the 9th inning with Joakim Soria is locked down, and the lineup will never wow you but shouldn't be laughed at. There seems to be a consistent thread of solid hitters, whether it's the Disgruntled One, Mr. I've Been A Permament DH Since I Was A Rookie, the Quietest Case of Assault You've Never Heard Of (yes, it's true), Coo-Coo for Co-Co Puffs, or Mr. They've Tried Me At Every Position But Nothing Will Stick Because They Keep Acquiring Better Players Than Me. OK, so maybe that last nickname is a bit long, but it makes the point. Anyway, the guys in this lineup aren't to be feared, but are fairly solid, 1-9. That makes for a much tougher out than the Royals would provide opposition in previous years. Remember one thing, these ain't your slightly older brother's Royals.

Unless You Are David DeJesus, I'll Bet You Didn't Know This

Or, if you're Trey Hillman. If you aren't either of those two, I can't imagine how you'd know that the Royals are planning on batting David DeJesus (Talk about you're clear cut steroid user. Jeez, could it be any more obvious?) in the number 3 spot. DeJesus, who's taken nearly 83% of his approaching 2500 hacks from the leadoff spot will be given a chance to drive in runs. The Royals logic (who knew they'd even had any?) is that he's their best hitter. While he suddenly won't start belting home runs, his ability to hit with runners on (career .317 BA) should translate into run production. I have to say, I happen to agree with the move. I've thought for a long time the Indians should do the same with Grady Sizemore, an even more traditional three hitter.

The Zack Greinke Sanity Meter

A few years back, we were decidedly in the red. In 2006, he looked like he'd gone off the deep end, Joaquin Phoenix-style. Then, after a prolonged sabbatical he returned, in 2007, seemingly not fully ready. Recently, we've seen him pitch quite well in 2008, and now, I'd have to say with confidence that the meter's has to be decidedly in the green. He re-upped with KC, finished 3 games over .500 and had a top-10 ERA in the American League. There was a time when rumors persisted that Greinke had a zillion pitches and could throw any of them at anywhere from 50 or so mph to near 95 mph. I'm pretty sure he's taken the bugs bunny curve ball out of his arsenal, but he doesn't seem to have suffered much from it.

Sidney Ponson Offered Another Chance To Prove How Bad He Really Is

I understand that each team needs a certain amount of starters. I understand the value of having someone throw a bunch of innings for you. But, when you're a team annually out of contention somewhere in the middle of April every year, why waste time with a veteran that has no upside, whatsoever. At least a guy like Livan Hernandez has a track record of winning (though precariously) and throwing a lot of innings. Sidney Ponson (his judge beating issues aside) hasn't thrown 200 innings since 2004, and hasn't won more games than he's lost or had a sub-4 ERA since 2003. Never has he ever been "good", just passable. He doesn't strike people out, he's not young, he gives up a lot of hits, there's been no sign that he's a great clubhouse leader, he's had attitude problems, he sweats a lot. Need I go further? Why is this guy still in the major leagues? Sorry, I had to get that off my chest.

Bold Predictions

The Royals will win upwards of 80 games this year, and while they won't make the playoffs, they'll be in that curious, "if they go on an insane run, maybe they could do it" position for most of the season.

Zack Greinke will win at least 15 games (not that bold considering he won 13 last year, but I wanted it marked down). I'm in love with him, in a strictly platonic fashion.

David DeJesus will drive in at least 85 runs, and Coco Crisp will steal at least 30 bases.

This will be a good year for the Royals. Strike that. I should say, it won't be a bad year for the Royals. Let's keep it under control.

Up Next...Thursday, A's.