Showing posts with label Jose Lopez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jose Lopez. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

The Fantasy Baseball Nerd: All Bargain Team

On Sunday night I went through the best part of any fantasy baseball season, bar none:  the draft.

The excitement that accompanies each pick, wondering the seemingly eternal questions like, will this be the year Rich Harden stays healthy?  It's great fun.  After that, the season pretty much goes down hill.

The answer, by the way, is no.

Any how, we're all looking for bargains, players on the cheap that everyone else is going to sleep on.  You know what I'm talking about, the proverbial Jermaine Dye, that produces way above where he's selected on average in most drafts.

And so, I present my All-Bargain Team.  By the by, I'm judging what is a "bargain" on value as opposed to ADP (average draft position) in Yahoo drafts.

C - I've never understood the idea of taking any catcher before the, I don't know, 15th round?  Maybe later.  You really shouldn't have to.  Ramon Hernandez and Kelly Shoppach are two guys that will have similar numbers (lower average, but still...) to most top tier catchers.  Difference?  You can get those two guys on average 15 rounds lower.  I'd take the slight hit in BA.

1B - A deep position, no doubt, but you shouldn't have to go with a first basemen in the 1st round if you don't want to.  Sure, guys like Mark Teixeira will put up .300/30/100+, but, so do 4th and 5th round guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Youkilis.  People sleep on Gonzo, and I don't know why.  Forget the ballpark, forget how bad his team is.  They've been bad and good for a while now, and the ballpark is the same size.  3 of 5 fantasy cat's have increased since he got to San Diego (R, HR, RBIs).  As for the Greek God, he's another one that has trended upwards each year over the past 3, and plays in a great lineup in a great park.

2B - One idea I had here was Robinson Cano, primed for a bounce back year.  But, if you're not much for banking on that type of thing, Jose Lopez (on average taken in round 15) is your guy.  He'll be in the middle of the Seattle order (feigned Oh My!), has shown some pop (17 HRs) and only 2 other second basemen had as many RBIs as he did last year.

SS - The top few guys here are amazing, no doubt.  Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes produce on a level that later round guys can not match.  But, there are a few really good shortstops out there to be had later in the draft.  J.J. Hardy and Jhonny Peralta are generally available in the 9th and 10th rounds.  Both have hit over 20 homers each of the last two years, are improving, and don't have real first names.  

3B - You could go with Youk here, but a name that seems to be garnering a ton of buzz in the fantasy world is Pablo Sandoval.  People around baseball have been known to say that the two months not to pay attention to statistics in are March and September.  If you hold to that belief, you might want to stay away from Sandoval.  In a half of August and full September, the burly Sandoval (with catcher, 3b, and 1b eligibility, I believe) hit over .340 and knocked in 24.  If he's for real, who knows, but someone needs to drive in runs for San Fran, and he'll get his shot.

OF - Mark Nickakis (either way, really) is one guy you can get in the 4th round on average, that's a good bet to get somewhere near .290/25/100.  Magglio Ordonez isn't as fun or up-and-coming as a guy like Nate McClouth, but he's a near lock to mash.  Over the last 3 seasons, he's never had less than 21 HRs, 103 RBIs, or batted under .298 (all, curiously, right near what his career averages are).  Same goes for Raul Ibanez, especially in a hitter's park now.  Mags' (6th round) and Ibanez's (11th round) statistics compare quite favorably to those a few rounds higher.

SP - My theory is, if you pitch in the NL West, you're A-OKay with me.  There's one hitter, one real hitter in that whole division.  You know who I'm talking about.  So, in that line of thinking, the first guy I'd recommend is Chad Billingsley (7th round), who should be fine for Opening Day, already had his first big season innings-wise, and should be ready to stay strong the whole season this year.  Teammates Derek Lowe (13th round) and Javier Vazquez (11th round) are consistently producing, and the National League never hurt anyone.  Ted Lilly (17th round) is a steal, considering he could won that many games last year, and has had at least 15 three years in a row.  Other post 10th round names are John Danks (14th, same as Billingsley, should be ready to handle full year of pitching after big innings year last year), Scott Baker (14th, over 3 to 1 K:BB ratio last season), and Zack Greinke (12th, don't let impending psychosis, team, or my man-crush get in the way).

I'm leaving RPs off this list because there so unpredictable.  People in firm closer seats pop in and out all year, it's not worth getting excited over.  What I will say is, you can find value late, and that it's not worth going too early for them.  Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria, Jose Valverde had as many as or more saves than Jonathan Papelbon.  Not saying those guys will do it again, but the point is, it could be anyone.

Coming up next...All-Breakout Year

Monday, March 30, 2009

30 Teams in 30 Days

Seattle Mariners:  Better A Year Late Than Never
(Over the next 30 days, BERNing on Sports will be previewing every team in the Majors, yes, even the Royals. Only one a day, every day, so try not to get too hooked)
Keeping It Real
The "team" the Mariners ran out there everyday last year was putrid.  No questions about it.  Guys like Richie Sexson and Kenji Johjima just aren't the kind of guys you want around if winning is your thing.   Unfortunately, while Sexy is gone, Johjima is still manning the plate (trust us, Jeff Clement knows it's not about ability but rather a poor contract decision the Mariners would prefer we not discuss).  Still, less poisonous members (in fact, down right peachy!) of the team return. Jose Lopez, Ichiro, Felix Hernandez and others form a group of guys that may not look like much, but keep in mind the division they play in.  None of the teams in the AL West will run away and hide at any point, especially with seemingly every Angels starter beginning the season on the DL.  The key, far as I'm concerned, is Erik Bedard returning to his top form.  If he can, this team, believe it or not, will compete all season long for that division.

Does Erik Bedard Feel Like Playing Baseball This Year?
As I just mentioned, the Canuck is the key.  The guy they acquired for sleepy prospect Adam Jones a year ago was one of the best left handed pitchers in the game, even if he'd yet to throw 200 innings in a season.  His ERA had dropped each of the previous four years, and his strike out totals rose each of those years as well.  A move to a real pitcher's park in Seattle seemed like a great move for Bedard.  Then, he got hurt, and stories came out that he just didn't really care too much for giving it his all in baseball.  Not good for one of your aces.  This year, despite getting consistently shelled this spring, he says he feels fine.  The Mariners should hope so.

The Kid is Back

The Lone Mariner To Show Actual Improvement
Jose Lopez seems to be, from what I've read and looked at, the only Mariner that improved from 2007 to 2008.  While most guys were busy either not caring, not hitting, not improving, or simply moving their way out of baseball, Lopez actually trended upwards.  More power, better average, more RBIs.  No one on Earth talks about him, but he's a pretty good hitter.  I'm not saying I'm comfortable with him as a meat of the order guy, but, there's worse options.  Like, say, Richie Sexson.  

Could This Be The Year For The King?
Felix Hernandez came up with Doc Gooden-esque hype.  He's yet to reach it yet, and most people point to the fact that even still he's only 22 years old.  Over the years, he's battled a number of ailments (shoulder bursitis, shin splints, ankle sprain, etc.) but appears to be (wink, wink) ready to go for 2009.  He may not be in what many consider a desirable situation after the WBC, but King Felix insists he'll be fine.  He's one of the harder pitchers to truly figure out, seeing as how electric he can be one outing, and how mediocre he can be another. To date, he's yet to put it all together.  Will this be the year?  I can't really say, as I've been part of the group saying each of the previous 3 years would be "the year".

Bold Predictions
Wladimir Balentien will issue a public apology for his name, finally admitting that a W/L combination in a name is nearly impossible to know how to pronounce.

Brandon Morrow, newly anointed as the team's closer, will save at least 25 games this year.  Maybe I just caught him at his peak, but I'm in love with this kid.  

Griff will be happy, the fans will be happy to see him.  His season will be better than last, maybe 20 homers (maybe?), but nothing special.  All in all, a  nice ride off into the sunset for the Kid.

Up Next...Tuesday, Rangers