The Fantasy Baseball Nerd: All Bargain Team

On Sunday night I went through the best part of any fantasy baseball season, bar none:  the draft.

The excitement that accompanies each pick, wondering the seemingly eternal questions like, will this be the year Rich Harden stays healthy?  It's great fun.  After that, the season pretty much goes down hill.

The answer, by the way, is no.

Any how, we're all looking for bargains, players on the cheap that everyone else is going to sleep on.  You know what I'm talking about, the proverbial Jermaine Dye, that produces way above where he's selected on average in most drafts.

And so, I present my All-Bargain Team.  By the by, I'm judging what is a "bargain" on value as opposed to ADP (average draft position) in Yahoo drafts.

C - I've never understood the idea of taking any catcher before the, I don't know, 15th round?  Maybe later.  You really shouldn't have to.  Ramon Hernandez and Kelly Shoppach are two guys that will have similar numbers (lower average, but still...) to most top tier catchers.  Difference?  You can get those two guys on average 15 rounds lower.  I'd take the slight hit in BA.

1B - A deep position, no doubt, but you shouldn't have to go with a first basemen in the 1st round if you don't want to.  Sure, guys like Mark Teixeira will put up .300/30/100+, but, so do 4th and 5th round guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Youkilis.  People sleep on Gonzo, and I don't know why.  Forget the ballpark, forget how bad his team is.  They've been bad and good for a while now, and the ballpark is the same size.  3 of 5 fantasy cat's have increased since he got to San Diego (R, HR, RBIs).  As for the Greek God, he's another one that has trended upwards each year over the past 3, and plays in a great lineup in a great park.

2B - One idea I had here was Robinson Cano, primed for a bounce back year.  But, if you're not much for banking on that type of thing, Jose Lopez (on average taken in round 15) is your guy.  He'll be in the middle of the Seattle order (feigned Oh My!), has shown some pop (17 HRs) and only 2 other second basemen had as many RBIs as he did last year.

SS - The top few guys here are amazing, no doubt.  Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes produce on a level that later round guys can not match.  But, there are a few really good shortstops out there to be had later in the draft.  J.J. Hardy and Jhonny Peralta are generally available in the 9th and 10th rounds.  Both have hit over 20 homers each of the last two years, are improving, and don't have real first names.  

3B - You could go with Youk here, but a name that seems to be garnering a ton of buzz in the fantasy world is Pablo Sandoval.  People around baseball have been known to say that the two months not to pay attention to statistics in are March and September.  If you hold to that belief, you might want to stay away from Sandoval.  In a half of August and full September, the burly Sandoval (with catcher, 3b, and 1b eligibility, I believe) hit over .340 and knocked in 24.  If he's for real, who knows, but someone needs to drive in runs for San Fran, and he'll get his shot.

OF - Mark Nickakis (either way, really) is one guy you can get in the 4th round on average, that's a good bet to get somewhere near .290/25/100.  Magglio Ordonez isn't as fun or up-and-coming as a guy like Nate McClouth, but he's a near lock to mash.  Over the last 3 seasons, he's never had less than 21 HRs, 103 RBIs, or batted under .298 (all, curiously, right near what his career averages are).  Same goes for Raul Ibanez, especially in a hitter's park now.  Mags' (6th round) and Ibanez's (11th round) statistics compare quite favorably to those a few rounds higher.

SP - My theory is, if you pitch in the NL West, you're A-OKay with me.  There's one hitter, one real hitter in that whole division.  You know who I'm talking about.  So, in that line of thinking, the first guy I'd recommend is Chad Billingsley (7th round), who should be fine for Opening Day, already had his first big season innings-wise, and should be ready to stay strong the whole season this year.  Teammates Derek Lowe (13th round) and Javier Vazquez (11th round) are consistently producing, and the National League never hurt anyone.  Ted Lilly (17th round) is a steal, considering he could won that many games last year, and has had at least 15 three years in a row.  Other post 10th round names are John Danks (14th, same as Billingsley, should be ready to handle full year of pitching after big innings year last year), Scott Baker (14th, over 3 to 1 K:BB ratio last season), and Zack Greinke (12th, don't let impending psychosis, team, or my man-crush get in the way).

I'm leaving RPs off this list because there so unpredictable.  People in firm closer seats pop in and out all year, it's not worth getting excited over.  What I will say is, you can find value late, and that it's not worth going too early for them.  Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria, Jose Valverde had as many as or more saves than Jonathan Papelbon.  Not saying those guys will do it again, but the point is, it could be anyone.

Coming up next...All-Breakout Year

30 Teams In 30 Days

San Diego Padres:  Jake Peavy Is Still Their Employee

(Over the next 30 days, BERNing on Sports will be previewing every team in the Majors, yes, even the Royals.  Only one a day, every day, so try not to get too hooked.)

Jake Peavy's Still A Padre

The only thing anyone heard this off-season regarding the Padres (other than their blockbuster free agent signing of catcher Henry Blanco) was whether former Cy Young award winning ace Jake Peavy would be wearing a new uniform come opening day.  First we heard about a potential deal to Atlanta, then the rest of the off season seemed to be a game of chess between Cubs GM Jim Hendry and Padres GM Kevin Towers.  Nothing ever happened, despite the fact he was found drunkenly singing "Go Cubs Go" at the winter meetings and he was signing autographs with "Go Cubs" below his name.  He has since denied this, because he was drunk enough that he probably doesn't remember, but it was quite a scene at the Las Vegas Hilton and the Bellagio last December.  Now that Peavy apparently isn't headed anywhere and he'll remain the Padres ace, that's means they have a good chance to win at least once every five days.  Twice when you consider that Chris Young is apparently healthy again and ready to go as well.  Not a bad one-two punch for a team that lost 99 games last year.

Peavy and Young, But Who Else?

Do the Padres have five starting pitchers employed for 2009?  I'm really not so sure.  After the aforementioned Peavy and Young, I suppose Cha-Seung Baek pitches the third day of 2009.  After that, who?  Yahoo Sports only has three pitchers listed in this rotation, which cannot be right, unless San Diego's pending ownership change has gotten so bad that they're trying to go with a three man rotation 1930s style.  Better judgment suggests they might put Kevin Correia and Shawn Hill on the back end of the rotation, or pitchers of the like, and that tells you all you need to know about the lack of pitching depth on this team.  Not to mention that long time closer Trevor Hoffman now gets his mail forwarded to Milwaukee and the Fathers will likely have to settle for Heath Bell as the closer.  Yikes.

Where Hitters Go To Die

Remember the Brian Giles that played for Cleveland and Pittsburgh?  He was one of the best hitters in the game.  The one that has played for San Diego over the last six seasons is half the player he was before.  Credit that to playing in the cavernous Petco Park, allege that he was a steroid user, do whatever you want.  But this guy hasn't hit more than 15 home runs in any of the last four years.  He's gone from great hitter to "walk machine".  Other than Adrian Gonzalez, who is apparently so good this ballpark can't do him in, there's no one in this lineup that stands out as a guy who will have a significant impact on their offense.  Kevin Kouzmanoff seems to be developing into a nice player, but can he be the right handed hitter the Padres could sandwich into the lineup between Giles and Gonzalez?  Probably not.  This offense stinks, flat out.  And it will continue to stink, unless everyone in the lineup has a career year.

Moorad Takes Over

According to sources in San Diego, Jeff Moorad's ownership group, which currently owns 35 percent of the team, is going to be taking over the decision making for the Padres even though their transition to majority ownership may not officially occur for a few years.  What does this mean for the product on the field?  Well Moorad did a nice job running the Diamondbacks previously, as they made the playoffs and rebuilt with a young lineup in 2007.  San Diego is hoping for the same thing.  But the Padres will be strapped for cash over the next couple of years while things are in transition, and this could mean San Diego will eventually dump big contracts like Peavy's and others to the first taker.  Stay tuned.

Bold Predictions

1. San Diego won't be nearly as bad as last year, and with Peavy and Young atop the rotation they may hover around the .500 mark until mid-season.  But at that point they'll realize they can't contend with either the Dodgers or Arizona and they'll dump Peavy and maybe even Chris Young.
2. Kevin Kouzmanoff will hit 30 home runs this year.  He'll also drive in a hundred runs.  His offense however, will be the least productive in baseball.
3. The Padres will trade Brian Giles at the break to a contending team.