The Fantasy Baseball Nerd: All Bargain Team

On Sunday night I went through the best part of any fantasy baseball season, bar none:  the draft.

The excitement that accompanies each pick, wondering the seemingly eternal questions like, will this be the year Rich Harden stays healthy?  It's great fun.  After that, the season pretty much goes down hill.

The answer, by the way, is no.

Any how, we're all looking for bargains, players on the cheap that everyone else is going to sleep on.  You know what I'm talking about, the proverbial Jermaine Dye, that produces way above where he's selected on average in most drafts.

And so, I present my All-Bargain Team.  By the by, I'm judging what is a "bargain" on value as opposed to ADP (average draft position) in Yahoo drafts.

C - I've never understood the idea of taking any catcher before the, I don't know, 15th round?  Maybe later.  You really shouldn't have to.  Ramon Hernandez and Kelly Shoppach are two guys that will have similar numbers (lower average, but still...) to most top tier catchers.  Difference?  You can get those two guys on average 15 rounds lower.  I'd take the slight hit in BA.

1B - A deep position, no doubt, but you shouldn't have to go with a first basemen in the 1st round if you don't want to.  Sure, guys like Mark Teixeira will put up .300/30/100+, but, so do 4th and 5th round guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Youkilis.  People sleep on Gonzo, and I don't know why.  Forget the ballpark, forget how bad his team is.  They've been bad and good for a while now, and the ballpark is the same size.  3 of 5 fantasy cat's have increased since he got to San Diego (R, HR, RBIs).  As for the Greek God, he's another one that has trended upwards each year over the past 3, and plays in a great lineup in a great park.

2B - One idea I had here was Robinson Cano, primed for a bounce back year.  But, if you're not much for banking on that type of thing, Jose Lopez (on average taken in round 15) is your guy.  He'll be in the middle of the Seattle order (feigned Oh My!), has shown some pop (17 HRs) and only 2 other second basemen had as many RBIs as he did last year.

SS - The top few guys here are amazing, no doubt.  Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes produce on a level that later round guys can not match.  But, there are a few really good shortstops out there to be had later in the draft.  J.J. Hardy and Jhonny Peralta are generally available in the 9th and 10th rounds.  Both have hit over 20 homers each of the last two years, are improving, and don't have real first names.  

3B - You could go with Youk here, but a name that seems to be garnering a ton of buzz in the fantasy world is Pablo Sandoval.  People around baseball have been known to say that the two months not to pay attention to statistics in are March and September.  If you hold to that belief, you might want to stay away from Sandoval.  In a half of August and full September, the burly Sandoval (with catcher, 3b, and 1b eligibility, I believe) hit over .340 and knocked in 24.  If he's for real, who knows, but someone needs to drive in runs for San Fran, and he'll get his shot.

OF - Mark Nickakis (either way, really) is one guy you can get in the 4th round on average, that's a good bet to get somewhere near .290/25/100.  Magglio Ordonez isn't as fun or up-and-coming as a guy like Nate McClouth, but he's a near lock to mash.  Over the last 3 seasons, he's never had less than 21 HRs, 103 RBIs, or batted under .298 (all, curiously, right near what his career averages are).  Same goes for Raul Ibanez, especially in a hitter's park now.  Mags' (6th round) and Ibanez's (11th round) statistics compare quite favorably to those a few rounds higher.

SP - My theory is, if you pitch in the NL West, you're A-OKay with me.  There's one hitter, one real hitter in that whole division.  You know who I'm talking about.  So, in that line of thinking, the first guy I'd recommend is Chad Billingsley (7th round), who should be fine for Opening Day, already had his first big season innings-wise, and should be ready to stay strong the whole season this year.  Teammates Derek Lowe (13th round) and Javier Vazquez (11th round) are consistently producing, and the National League never hurt anyone.  Ted Lilly (17th round) is a steal, considering he could won that many games last year, and has had at least 15 three years in a row.  Other post 10th round names are John Danks (14th, same as Billingsley, should be ready to handle full year of pitching after big innings year last year), Scott Baker (14th, over 3 to 1 K:BB ratio last season), and Zack Greinke (12th, don't let impending psychosis, team, or my man-crush get in the way).

I'm leaving RPs off this list because there so unpredictable.  People in firm closer seats pop in and out all year, it's not worth getting excited over.  What I will say is, you can find value late, and that it's not worth going too early for them.  Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria, Jose Valverde had as many as or more saves than Jonathan Papelbon.  Not saying those guys will do it again, but the point is, it could be anyone.

Coming up next...All-Breakout Year

30 Teams In 30 Days

Philadelphia Phillies: Stop Complaining, Philadelphia
(Over the next 30 days, BERNing on Sports will be previewing every team in the Majors, yes, even the Royals. Only one a day, every day, so try not to get too hooked.)

We Shouldn't Be Hearing From You Anymore, Philly fans...

But you know we will. I was happy for the Phillies fans last year that they final got a championship in their city for the first time in 25 years. But I still contend that their drought really wasn't that bad and we shouldn't have heard so much about it. (After all, anyone over the age of 35 in Phliadelphia would remember the Sixers title in 1983 or the Phillies last world series crown in 1980.) Philadelphians like to whine and complain a lot, so it's not surprising, but now that the Phillies took home the 2008 World Series crown, we shouldn't be hearing from these complainers anymore. Enjoy your championship, and don't complain if they don't win it again this year. Although they still have a good team, and should contend to win another.

Pat The Bat vs. Raul Ibanez's Bat

Pat Burrell took a lot of heat during his nine year run in Philadelphia. The former number one pick in the 1998 draft was placed with enormous expectations immediately and the city of Philadelphia isn't exactly forgiving, or rational, about their sports teams most of the time. Burrell didn't hit for a high average during his teure in the city of brotherly love and could be frustratingly inconsistent, but he did hit a lot of home runs. 251 in fact. And most recently, Burrell provided that lethal right handed bat to sandwich between lefties Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. That was one of the biggest reasons the Phillies couldn't be beaten in last year's run through October. Replacing him is another lefty, Raul Ibanez. He's an excellent hitter who should fit into the offense quite nicely, assuming that the soon-to-be 38-year old doesn't tail off his production. He and Burrell are both weak defensive players, so Philadelphia doesn't really gain or lose anything there. But will he be a better fit than Burrell? I'm not so sure.

Pitching Still A Problem

Cole Hamels established himself as a brilliant pitcher in the playoffs last year if he hadn't already established this fact before. His presence at the top of the Phillies rotation anchored their run to the World Series title, and will key whatever run Philadelphia ever makes in the future. But maybe even more important to the Phils success in October was the suprising performances of Brett Myers, Joe Blanton and Jamie Moyer. (Both Myers and Blanton were hitting homers in the playoffs, which should have been the sign from above that the Phillies were going to win it all.) Sure, Myers had a great second half after being sent to the minors to figure things out after an abysmal first half. But can he sustain a good year for the entire season? Can Joe Blanton, who has been a fairly average pitcher for most of his career, be the pitcher he was in the post season for an entire year? And is Jamie Moyer getting the senior citizen discount at the movies yet? The Phils rotation has a lot of questions to answer, as usual. If their rotation is good, they're the favorites again in the NL East despite the Mets high-priced additions. But if not, they'll have trouble winning their third consecutive division crown.

Would the Real Brad Lidge Please Stand Up?

Last year was an incredible year for the Phillies closer, as former GM Pat Gillick looks like a genius now for acquiring the guy who had worn out his welcome in Houston. He didn't blow a save last year except for in the All-Star game, and was absolutely unhittable and spectacular. And yes, he has been that good before, prior to the torpedo he served up to Albert Pujols in the 2006 NLCS. But I'm not totally convinced that he'll be as good this year as he was last year. If he is, the Phils are all set in the late innings. But with the ups and downs Lidge has had over the last few seasons, I'm not so sure we can expect Lidge to be as great as he was for another year.

Bold Predictions

1. Ryan Howard will hit .275 or higher this year, finally returning to the form he had when he hit .313 in is MVP award winning 2006 season.
2. Shane Victorino will have his first 20-20 campaign, finially reaching the 20 homer plateau while continuing to steal well over 20 bases.
3. And the Phillies will still win the NL East, despite the moves made by the Mets to improve.

Up Next...Monday, Cubs.

The Best Signing You Didn't Hear About (Until It Was Made Official Today)

If I could give you a player that's averaged over 95 RBI's, 20 homer runs, and a batting average better than .290 over the last seven (yes, seven) seasons, would you sign him?

I'm sure you would. But, likely, you're desperate refrain would be something to the effect of , "Well, unless we're the Yankees, we don't have the dough to sign Mark Teixeira."

What if I told you it'd only cost you around 30 million? Still intrigued?


I'd have to imagine so, and apparently, this line of reasoning intrigued the Phillies enough to give this guy right here a three year deal worth just over 31 million.





The question I have is, why weren't more teams going after Raul Ibanez? Sure, he throws likes a Pony Leaguer, and doesn't have great range. But, how many left fielders are signed for their defense?


Nowadays, to get a player that puts up the numbers that Ibanez has (in a pitcher's park like Safeco, no less) you've gotta be prepared to shell out well over the century mark. To get him for a third of that, for only three years...well, folks around my way call that a bargain.


Not to mention, the soft-spoken Ibanez (who, granted, isn't a spry chick, but isn't the kind of guy anyone's counting on to lead a rebuilding effort) replaces the ill-tempered, disliked Pat Burrell.


If you're the Phillies, it's a win-win. If you're just about anyone else, you're wondering, why didn't we think of this?