The Fantasy Baseball Nerd: All Bargain Team

On Sunday night I went through the best part of any fantasy baseball season, bar none:  the draft.

The excitement that accompanies each pick, wondering the seemingly eternal questions like, will this be the year Rich Harden stays healthy?  It's great fun.  After that, the season pretty much goes down hill.

The answer, by the way, is no.

Any how, we're all looking for bargains, players on the cheap that everyone else is going to sleep on.  You know what I'm talking about, the proverbial Jermaine Dye, that produces way above where he's selected on average in most drafts.

And so, I present my All-Bargain Team.  By the by, I'm judging what is a "bargain" on value as opposed to ADP (average draft position) in Yahoo drafts.

C - I've never understood the idea of taking any catcher before the, I don't know, 15th round?  Maybe later.  You really shouldn't have to.  Ramon Hernandez and Kelly Shoppach are two guys that will have similar numbers (lower average, but still...) to most top tier catchers.  Difference?  You can get those two guys on average 15 rounds lower.  I'd take the slight hit in BA.

1B - A deep position, no doubt, but you shouldn't have to go with a first basemen in the 1st round if you don't want to.  Sure, guys like Mark Teixeira will put up .300/30/100+, but, so do 4th and 5th round guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Youkilis.  People sleep on Gonzo, and I don't know why.  Forget the ballpark, forget how bad his team is.  They've been bad and good for a while now, and the ballpark is the same size.  3 of 5 fantasy cat's have increased since he got to San Diego (R, HR, RBIs).  As for the Greek God, he's another one that has trended upwards each year over the past 3, and plays in a great lineup in a great park.

2B - One idea I had here was Robinson Cano, primed for a bounce back year.  But, if you're not much for banking on that type of thing, Jose Lopez (on average taken in round 15) is your guy.  He'll be in the middle of the Seattle order (feigned Oh My!), has shown some pop (17 HRs) and only 2 other second basemen had as many RBIs as he did last year.

SS - The top few guys here are amazing, no doubt.  Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes produce on a level that later round guys can not match.  But, there are a few really good shortstops out there to be had later in the draft.  J.J. Hardy and Jhonny Peralta are generally available in the 9th and 10th rounds.  Both have hit over 20 homers each of the last two years, are improving, and don't have real first names.  

3B - You could go with Youk here, but a name that seems to be garnering a ton of buzz in the fantasy world is Pablo Sandoval.  People around baseball have been known to say that the two months not to pay attention to statistics in are March and September.  If you hold to that belief, you might want to stay away from Sandoval.  In a half of August and full September, the burly Sandoval (with catcher, 3b, and 1b eligibility, I believe) hit over .340 and knocked in 24.  If he's for real, who knows, but someone needs to drive in runs for San Fran, and he'll get his shot.

OF - Mark Nickakis (either way, really) is one guy you can get in the 4th round on average, that's a good bet to get somewhere near .290/25/100.  Magglio Ordonez isn't as fun or up-and-coming as a guy like Nate McClouth, but he's a near lock to mash.  Over the last 3 seasons, he's never had less than 21 HRs, 103 RBIs, or batted under .298 (all, curiously, right near what his career averages are).  Same goes for Raul Ibanez, especially in a hitter's park now.  Mags' (6th round) and Ibanez's (11th round) statistics compare quite favorably to those a few rounds higher.

SP - My theory is, if you pitch in the NL West, you're A-OKay with me.  There's one hitter, one real hitter in that whole division.  You know who I'm talking about.  So, in that line of thinking, the first guy I'd recommend is Chad Billingsley (7th round), who should be fine for Opening Day, already had his first big season innings-wise, and should be ready to stay strong the whole season this year.  Teammates Derek Lowe (13th round) and Javier Vazquez (11th round) are consistently producing, and the National League never hurt anyone.  Ted Lilly (17th round) is a steal, considering he could won that many games last year, and has had at least 15 three years in a row.  Other post 10th round names are John Danks (14th, same as Billingsley, should be ready to handle full year of pitching after big innings year last year), Scott Baker (14th, over 3 to 1 K:BB ratio last season), and Zack Greinke (12th, don't let impending psychosis, team, or my man-crush get in the way).

I'm leaving RPs off this list because there so unpredictable.  People in firm closer seats pop in and out all year, it's not worth getting excited over.  What I will say is, you can find value late, and that it's not worth going too early for them.  Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria, Jose Valverde had as many as or more saves than Jonathan Papelbon.  Not saying those guys will do it again, but the point is, it could be anyone.

Coming up next...All-Breakout Year

30 Teams In 30 Days

Atlanta Braves: Hold Off On The Return To Glory

(Over the next 30 days, BERNing on Sports will be previewing every team in the Majors, yes, even the Royals. Only one a day, every day, so try not to get too hooked)




Frank and Honest
After John Schuerholz built the dynasty in Atlanta that won a record 14-straight division titles, new GM Frank Wren is trying to make his mark on the Braves. After a pair of disappointing season that saw the Bravos miss the playoffs in back to back years, the low point being last year's brutal 72-90 campaign, they've added pitching. I know, right? Of all teams, the Braves needed pitching. But this staff with the addition of the pictured man above, Derek Lowe, should be better. He also added Javier Vazquez, in one of the more bizarre trades of the off season, and Kenshin Kawakami from Japan. Although, you know how things can go when you sign a pitcher from Japan. He could be a Daisuke Matsuzaka, or he could be a Kei Igawa or Hideki Irabu. As Forrest Gump's mother might say, Japanese pitchers are like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get.

What The Heck?
The biggest move the Braves made this off season besides the acquisition of Lowe was that of embattled right hander Javier "Don't Let Me Pitch Past The 5th Inning Because I'm Going To Get Rocked" Vazquez. Amazingly, White Sox GM Kenny Williams was able to convince Frank Wren to give up four players for Javy, even though he posted just a 12-16 record with a 4.67 ERA last season. The Sox received Baseball America Top 100 prospect Tyler Flowers, along with shortstop Brent Lillibridge (who could make the White Sox team out of camp), and prospect third baseman Jon Gilmore and pitcher Santos Rodriguez. And this was all for Javy and miserable left handed reliever Boone Logan. I hope for the Braves sake that Vazquez is actually not one of the most maddening pitchers in baseball for them this year, or that trade will look brutal in future months.

Offensive Offense
Last year the Braves hit .270 as a team, which ranked eighth in Major League Baseball. With Jones and catcher Brian McCann, it appears at least of the middle of the Atlanta lineup is set. But the rest of the lineup? In the words of Larry David, ehhhh. Garret Anderson is old. Yunel Escobar and Casey Kotchman are nice players, but not impact hitters. Same thing goes for Kelly Johnson, and who knows what will happen in center field. It's between Gregor Blanco and Josh Anderson. That's all you need to know there. And Jeff Francoeur hopes to bounce back from a brutal year offensively, in which he hit just .239 and hit the fewest home runs of any season in his career (11). This team could have trouble scoring runs in a division with good offense. Not good.

From the Looney Bin
Tim Hudson may be the best mid season acquisition in baseball. The right hander is recovering from right elbow surgery and was placed on the 60-day disabled list ten days ago. If he returns this season, that sure would be a shot in the arm for Atlanta. Seriously though, if you'll get past the lame pun I just made, if Hudson returns mid season this is a guy with a career ERA below 3.50, and had a stingy 3.17 ERA last season when healthy. If the Braves can hang around in the NL east until July, Huddy would be a great addition to their suspect rotation.

Bold Prediction, Or Maybe Not So Much
The Braves will be better, but not great. I'd say around .500. Best case scenario? 85 wins. Worst case? 75 wins or so. The Braves will never be horrendous, but they probably won't be great.

Up Next...Saturday, Red Sox

Hump Day Headlines

In this week's version of Hump Day Headlines, we discuss someone you probably hadn't heard of until yesterday, the Braves newest Lowe, the Giants wanting Plax back, and a magical night for Orlando...

• America, meet Jodie Meeks.  The six-foot four inch junior from Norcross, Georgia now holds the University of Kentucky's record for most points in a single game.  With his eye-popping 54 point effort yesterday against Tennessee, Meeks broke Dan Issel's 39-year school record.  And by the way, UK beat the #24 Volunteers 90-72.  (Issel set the previous record with 53 points at Mississippi in 1970.)  This achievement, while astounding, is not completely surprising.  Entering last night's game Meeks was averaging 24 points per game, and was shooting a nice 46% from the field.  In fact, already once this season Meeks flirted with history, when he dropped 46 on Appalachian State December 20th.  Meeks ranked 5th in the nation in scoring entering last night's contest, and will likely move up after his historic night, considering he was just 0.6 points behind Notre Dame's Luke Harangody for fourth in the country.  And maybe most impressive about this night for Meeks?  He shot a whopping 68% from the field, 15-22, and hit TEN three pointers.  Yes, 10-15 from beyond the arc.  (Imagine if Marv Albert had called this game.  Meeks, from downtown, YES!)  He didn't miss a free throw either, going 14-14 from the line, and had eight rebounds and four assists to boot.  Who says Billy Gillispie couldn't turn Kentucky around?  At 13-4, and 2-0 in SEC play, this team has rebounded from it's annual season opening shocker when it lost to Virginia Military in game one.  With Meeks leading this bunch, they could be scary come tourney time.
• Quietly, or maybe not so much, the Atlanta Braves are becoming a legitimate team to compete for the division that they once won 14 times in a row.  After losing John Smoltz to the Red Sox, General Manager Frank Wren spent no time trying to acquire another pitcher.  Derek Lowe is set to sign a sixty million dollar contract with the Braves that keeps him in the A-T-L for the next four years.  The 35-year old sinker baller went 14-11 last year with the Dodgers and had a nice 3.24 ERA, but was absolutely nasty down the stretch.  He allowed 3 runs just twice in his last thirteen starts, which included the playoffs, and won six of his last seven regular season decisions.  He'll be at the top of a rotation that now includes Javier Vazquez, who they acquired from the White Sox for four prospects, and Japanese All-Star Kenshin Kawakami.  The NL East may very well be the best division in the National League this year, and now the defending champion Phillies and the paper champion Mets may have another serious contender to deal with.  And we haven't even mentioned the Marlins.
• Sometimes athletes, even when they're complete morons, are still valuable despite their off field problems.  The Giants passing offense was dreadful without Plaxico Burress.  They were 11-1 with the man who shot himself in the leg, and then dropped three of four without him to finish the season and were erased from the playoffs by the Eagles last week at Giants Stadium.  And over those four weeks prior to the playoff loss, Eli Manning had a QB rating of 69.8 (bad) and threw just two touchdowns in that stretch.  Now he and his teammates want him back, despite all the off the field garbage they dealt with.  "I think he will be back," tailback Brandon Jacobs said after the team lost to the Eagles Sunday.  "I think he should be back.  I don't think he has a bad bone in his body, and I think everyone deserves a second chance."  Translation:  we don't have any good receivers other than Plax, and without him, we're not any good!  With Plax, the Giants passing offense averaged about 1.6 touchdowns per contest.  Without him, it averaged just over half a pass TD per game.  And, since you can't throw half a touchdown, the Giants offense was pretty darn bad without him.  So, Mayor Bloomberg, if you're a Giants fan, let Plax off the hook so he can revive the Giants passing game!  Oh, and by the way, he's in court again because a car he leased was impounded with damages in Pennsylvania.  So I guess letting him off the hook now may not be so easy.
• While Jodie Meeks was making the headlines in college buckets, the Orlando Magic made the headlines in the professional ranks.  The Magic made an NBA record 23 three point shots in a 139-107 blowout of the lowly Sacramento Kings.  Jameer Nelson hit all five treys he attempted, Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu each hit three of them, and J.J. Redick and Keith Bogans hit four each off the bench to contribute to the mark.  (NINE Magic players hit at least one three-pointer.)  The Magic are an impressive 31-8 this season, and coming into last night's game ranked third in the NBA in 3-point percentage (39.3).  With this kind of shooting, they're definitely going to be a force in the Eastern Conference and contend for the Finals.    And, lost in this incredible shooting night, the Magic got another typically great performance from Dwight Howard, who poured in 25 with 15 rebounds.   Howard shot 80% from the field, hit 9-11 free throws, and also had four steals.  What a Magical night for Orlando in Sacramento.

Enough Already

It's December 23rd, sometime in the afternoon, do you know where your targeted Scott Boras client is?

Likely sitting at home.

As reported by Y! Sports, only one Boras client has signed a FA contract his winter.  His name, Felipe Lopez, and he's now a Diamondback, in case you cared.  Quick aside...best line of the whole article, came in the comments section:

"Shocking Boras even accepted him as a client."

While that observation is quite true, the more shocking fact is that he's the only one that's signed.  Then again, when you consider that Scott Boras could very well be the anti-Christ of Major League Baseball, it isn't that surprising.

Boras' supremely talented clients, Mark Teixiera, Oliver Perez, Manny Ramirez, and Derek Lowe among them, sit at home, while their agent postures and preens and pauses.  There are usually a few "mystery teams" that no one seems to know much about (their whereabouts, how they are offering that player a contract without anyone knowing about it, or why they are the only team offering 2 more years and 40 million more).  

There usually is a ridiculous waiting game played, where teams go back and forth saying they are "out" of the bidding.  Boston said they were out last week.  The Angels have withdrawn their offer.  Sure.  And the Yankees were really done bidding on A-Rod when they said so last year.

Now there's word out of Washington that the Nats are offering more money (up near the 180 million mark), with the potential for more years.  As has been said previously here on BERNing, that's clearly not a good idea.  Though, Collin Balester might have something different to say about that.

However it winds up breaking down, with Marky Mark wearing Bo-Sox red next year or Natty gray (who even cares what color they are?), I've had quite enough of this Mark Teixeira saga.  Let's get a move on this whole process.  Let's get him signed, let's get these other guys signed.  Who cares if it's for too much money?  At least, once it's over, we'll be able to get rid of Scott Boras til next winter.