The Fantasy Baseball Nerd: All Bargain Team

On Sunday night I went through the best part of any fantasy baseball season, bar none:  the draft.

The excitement that accompanies each pick, wondering the seemingly eternal questions like, will this be the year Rich Harden stays healthy?  It's great fun.  After that, the season pretty much goes down hill.

The answer, by the way, is no.

Any how, we're all looking for bargains, players on the cheap that everyone else is going to sleep on.  You know what I'm talking about, the proverbial Jermaine Dye, that produces way above where he's selected on average in most drafts.

And so, I present my All-Bargain Team.  By the by, I'm judging what is a "bargain" on value as opposed to ADP (average draft position) in Yahoo drafts.

C - I've never understood the idea of taking any catcher before the, I don't know, 15th round?  Maybe later.  You really shouldn't have to.  Ramon Hernandez and Kelly Shoppach are two guys that will have similar numbers (lower average, but still...) to most top tier catchers.  Difference?  You can get those two guys on average 15 rounds lower.  I'd take the slight hit in BA.

1B - A deep position, no doubt, but you shouldn't have to go with a first basemen in the 1st round if you don't want to.  Sure, guys like Mark Teixeira will put up .300/30/100+, but, so do 4th and 5th round guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Youkilis.  People sleep on Gonzo, and I don't know why.  Forget the ballpark, forget how bad his team is.  They've been bad and good for a while now, and the ballpark is the same size.  3 of 5 fantasy cat's have increased since he got to San Diego (R, HR, RBIs).  As for the Greek God, he's another one that has trended upwards each year over the past 3, and plays in a great lineup in a great park.

2B - One idea I had here was Robinson Cano, primed for a bounce back year.  But, if you're not much for banking on that type of thing, Jose Lopez (on average taken in round 15) is your guy.  He'll be in the middle of the Seattle order (feigned Oh My!), has shown some pop (17 HRs) and only 2 other second basemen had as many RBIs as he did last year.

SS - The top few guys here are amazing, no doubt.  Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes produce on a level that later round guys can not match.  But, there are a few really good shortstops out there to be had later in the draft.  J.J. Hardy and Jhonny Peralta are generally available in the 9th and 10th rounds.  Both have hit over 20 homers each of the last two years, are improving, and don't have real first names.  

3B - You could go with Youk here, but a name that seems to be garnering a ton of buzz in the fantasy world is Pablo Sandoval.  People around baseball have been known to say that the two months not to pay attention to statistics in are March and September.  If you hold to that belief, you might want to stay away from Sandoval.  In a half of August and full September, the burly Sandoval (with catcher, 3b, and 1b eligibility, I believe) hit over .340 and knocked in 24.  If he's for real, who knows, but someone needs to drive in runs for San Fran, and he'll get his shot.

OF - Mark Nickakis (either way, really) is one guy you can get in the 4th round on average, that's a good bet to get somewhere near .290/25/100.  Magglio Ordonez isn't as fun or up-and-coming as a guy like Nate McClouth, but he's a near lock to mash.  Over the last 3 seasons, he's never had less than 21 HRs, 103 RBIs, or batted under .298 (all, curiously, right near what his career averages are).  Same goes for Raul Ibanez, especially in a hitter's park now.  Mags' (6th round) and Ibanez's (11th round) statistics compare quite favorably to those a few rounds higher.

SP - My theory is, if you pitch in the NL West, you're A-OKay with me.  There's one hitter, one real hitter in that whole division.  You know who I'm talking about.  So, in that line of thinking, the first guy I'd recommend is Chad Billingsley (7th round), who should be fine for Opening Day, already had his first big season innings-wise, and should be ready to stay strong the whole season this year.  Teammates Derek Lowe (13th round) and Javier Vazquez (11th round) are consistently producing, and the National League never hurt anyone.  Ted Lilly (17th round) is a steal, considering he could won that many games last year, and has had at least 15 three years in a row.  Other post 10th round names are John Danks (14th, same as Billingsley, should be ready to handle full year of pitching after big innings year last year), Scott Baker (14th, over 3 to 1 K:BB ratio last season), and Zack Greinke (12th, don't let impending psychosis, team, or my man-crush get in the way).

I'm leaving RPs off this list because there so unpredictable.  People in firm closer seats pop in and out all year, it's not worth getting excited over.  What I will say is, you can find value late, and that it's not worth going too early for them.  Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria, Jose Valverde had as many as or more saves than Jonathan Papelbon.  Not saying those guys will do it again, but the point is, it could be anyone.

Coming up next...All-Breakout Year

30 Teams in 30 Days

Cincinnati Reds:  Dusty Baker's Doing His Best To Ruin This Group Of Youngsters

(Over the next 30 days, BERNing on Sports will be previewing every team in the Majors, yes, even the Royals. Only one a day, every day, so try not to get too hooked)

Keeping it Real

Brandon Phillips, at 27, is one of the elder statesmen of this year's Cincy Reds.  Gone are the Griffeys and Dunns and Sabos (wrong year?).  Surrounding Phillips are a crop of young players including Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto (who sounds like he should have his own comic book).  The problem is, they're just not ready to put it all together right this minute.  Combine that with a bunch of players that are either middling veteran players with significant holes in their games (Willy Taveras, Jerry Hairston Jr., Ramon Hernandez) or simply veteran players that have lost their touch in recent years (Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo).  It makes for an odd (read:  under .500) bunch, no?  Thing is, Volquez is for real, he just ran into a wall last year as many pitchers do in their first years.  Cueto, though his numbers wouldn't suggest it, is absolutely filthy.  He could put it all together this year, and I wouldn't be surprised.  Bruce had a great start to his MLB career, but really tailed off.  The adjustments he makes will be interesting to see after the league adjusted to him.  And finally, Phillips, after a down year across the board, will need to regain some of his swag if this team's going to be as powerful (offensively at least) as it could be.  Maybe it's just the hope that Spring seems to bring every year for bad teams across this great nation, but it's hard for me to be too down on this team, if only on potential for growth.

Why Does It Seem Like There's Always A Million Outfielders On This Team

Because there are.  Over the years, three of the guys that were breaking in were Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena (all of whom miraculously find themselves on the Nationals now...Jim Bowden, you dog!).  Throw in that Ryan Freel was at one point serviceable and Griff was around too, and you had a verifiable logjam in the outfield that never (and hasn't) cleared up.  Now, you've got Bruce and Taveras in right and center, which is fine.  Battling for left, not as clear cut.  There's Hairston, and then a whole other list of cast-offs, including Jacque Jones, Jonny Gomes, and Laynce Nix (remember when he was supposed to be good?).  Now, it's not nearly as cluttered as it was back in the day (say, 2005), but it's still not clear. 

You Can't Teach Speed (or How To Get On-Base, apparently)

Willy Taveras, despite an incredible dislike of getting on base consistently (or even hitting the ball in fair play and reaching base safely consistently) finds himself not only on another major league team this year, but starting in center field, and leading off.  Why?  Because the man can flat out swipe bags, Lloyd McLendon-style.  More impressive than leading the league in steals (did anyone other than Rockies personnel know about this?), he was only caught 7 times (career percentage of over 80 percent is damn good).  So, while Taveras wages his own personal campaign against Billy Beane and the moneyball-driven obsession with OBP, we can all just sit back and watch a man that really can run.  And that's about it.

Aaron Harang Swears He Really Isn't As Bad As He Was Last Year

How in the hell do you go from winning 16 games to losing 17 in one year?  How in the hell do you have three straight years with an under 4 ERA, in a pitcher's park, logging over 200 innings each year, to an ERA near 5 in under 200 innings?  How?  Forearm problems?  Weight issues?  No one is quite sure what went wrong in 2008 for Harang, but he did lose some weight and appears to be over any nagging injuries from the year prior.  Was last year a sign of wear and tear and ultimate decline, or is he going to revert back to the reliable fantasy pitcher we all know and love.  Not that I drafted him last year and held on to him for way too long as he killed me each and every week.  Not that I did that, or anything...

Bold Predictions

Homer Bailey will get his last real shot this year with the Stockings.  And while he won't be Roger Clemens (as he was touted to be) he will be serviceable (as he has never been) throughout this year.

Johnny Cueto will be over .500 this year, and while he won't be nearly as consistent as everyone would like, he will make a huge leap forward this year.  I'm saying at least 4 or 5 more wins than last year, and an ERA right next to the number 4.

Two quickies:  NO way on Earth Hairston lasts in LF til the All-Star Game (injury or inability, your choice), and Ramon Hernandez will again approach 25 bombs in a friendly hitter's park.

Up Next...Tuesday, Brewers