Before we get going, let me clarify what I term as breakout. For me, a breakout season can mean a number of things. It can mean the obvious of just coming from no where to have a huge season, a la Josh Hamilton. It can mean having a big year after many down years, like Ken Griffey Jr. in 2007. It can mean building upon previous good seasons, and putting it all together, like Derrek Lee in 2005. It can mean any of these things, and more. So, just because a guy was good last year, doesn't mean he can't have what I'm calling a breakout year this year.
As always, feel free to rip it apart in the comments.
C - Mike Napoli has already hit 46 homers in his career, 20 of which came last year. But, this year, he's going to do better. I'm talking 30 to 35 homers, better. The average won't be good, but with health and finally some full-time duties behind the plate, the burly catcher will rip it up. With that said, still don't expect much more than 80 or so RBIs.
1B - This is a tough one, because a lot of these guys have already had pretty good seasons. For instance, I'm one of many that thinks Joey Votto is going to have a big year, but it's not much of a surprise considering how well he hit last year. Another guy people have pegged is Billy Butler, who seems like he's been on lists like this for years. If he's healthy, the kid can hit, no doubt. He doesn't have a position, and seems to have more doubles-type power than homer-type power, but I think we'd all be happy with 20 and 100 from Billy B.
2B - A guy a lot of people are mentioning is Aaron Hill, but he already had what I'd call his breakout year two years ago. No, my guy is the speedster Alexi Casilla. Think Luis Castillo, but a better hitter. Way better. And, steals will come for Casilla. He only swiped 7 last year, but in the minors he averaged over 30 steals a season.
SS - Consider this my first divergence from the rules I set up above. Troy Tulowitzki already had his big year, two years ago. But, people seem to have forgotten about him on draft day this year. The guy was injured last year, never got it going, but he hasn't lost his stroke. Not to mention, he'll still be playing his home games at Coors Field, and with Matt Holliday gone, the Rocks will be counting on him to help fill in.
3B - Another guy that's on these lists a lot is Alex Gordon. I've heard that he's starting to try to go the other way more, not pull everything he sees. Which, is all well and good, but I need to see him hit well for more than a two week period before I endorse him. My guy here is another one that isn't really going to "break out". Ryan Zimmerman has had a few good years in his career, but like Tulowitzki, has completely fallen off people's radars. Zim can hit and now that he's healthy (not to mention, with Dunn in the lineup) he should resume his 25/110-type seasons.
OF - Adam Jones will steal at least 25 bases, David DeJesus could drive in over 90 runs batting in the 3-hole this year (if Bengie Molina can do it from the cleanup spot...), Coco Crisp with more playing time and no media to harass him should return to pre-Boston stats, once B.J. Upton returns on the 13th, he will tear it up (think power of 2007, speed of 2008), and not too far form 20/25 last year, Lastings Milledge will do big things from the leadoff spot for the Nats. I wouldn't sleep on Elijah Dukes either, who, if he keeps himself on the field, would be hard pressed not to go at least 20/20.
SP - They say the second year after Tommy John surgery is when you see a return to form, expect that from Francisco Liriano. He won 15 games last year, but Ricky Nolasco's ceiling is somewhere in the atmosphere. Matt Cain has only won 15 games the last two years while pitching to solid ERAs both times. I wouldn't expect his luck to be so poor for a third straight year. Figure between 12 and 16 wins. Another guy that's shown a ton of promise is Johnny Cueto, who I'd expect more consistency out of in his second full year. Bounce back year for Fausto Carmona, that heavy sinker is too good to ignore.
Again, I'm leaving off relievers because they're just too damn flimsy.
So, there you have it, my picks for guys to have break out or bust out or big or unexpected or kind of expected years. Agree, disagree, or simply ignore. You're choice. But, I'll still say I told ya so.
