30 Teams In 30 Days

Chicago Cubs:  When Will "Next Year" Be Here?

(Over the next 30 days, BERNing on Sports will be previewing every team in the Majors, yes, even the Royals.  Only one a day, every day, so try not to get too hooked.)

The Pressure's Always On

The Cubs may be entering the 2009 season coming off back to back division titles, a feat they hadn't accomplished since they won the World Series in back to back seasons in 1907 and 1908.  But the fact remains Chicago's National League ball club has been swept in back to back playoff series spiraling its fervent fan base into a whirlwind of disappointment.  The 2007 sweep by the Diamondbacks can be chalked up to a the fact that the 85-77 Cubs really weren't all that good.  But the 2008 outfit won 97 games and was the clear-cut favorite in the national league until walks, errors and James Loney sent the Cubs home early last year.  The pressure on the Cubs to win in 2009 is, like always, extraordinary, especially now that the glory drought on the north side has reached year number 101.  And consider skipper Lou Piniella is in the final year of his contract and the team isn't getting any younger.

Lefty Loosey, Righty Tighty

One of the most prominent rationalizations for why last year's Cubs didn't bring any hardware to Wrigley Field in late October was that their lineup was too right-handed.  So they traded Mark DeRosa to Cleveland, signed switch hitting right fielder Milton Bradley from Texas, and picked up Aaron Miles, another switch hitter, to platoon at various infield positions.  They also added back up catcher Paul Bako, a left handed hitter (to replace right handed hitting Hank White) and the speedy light-hitting (but left-handed) Joey Gathright to battle for a back-up outfield spot.  You might say none of these moves were significant other than the Bradley signing.  And you might be right.  But the Cubs will be far more balanced this year than they were last year.  Sweet Lou hopes the Kosuke Fukudome from the first half of 2008 shows up this year and not the one who looked like a top spinning itself into the left handed batters box in the second half of last season.  The Cubs are also banking on a breakout year from 2nd baseman Mike Fontenot.  The opening day lineup figures to feature three lefties in the starting nine and a bunch of options off the bench.  So if they don't win it this year, at least we can't say they didn't have left-handed hitting.

They Didn't Get Jake Peavy...

So they better hope their pitching staff can replicate, for the most part, the success of last season.  I say for the most part because even though the staff ranked 5th in baseball in ERA and compiled the most strikeouts of any team in the bigs, they also had some shaky performances from ace Carlos Zambrano down the stretch.  Yes, he threw a no-hitter September 14th last year against the Astros, which I happened to attend (I know you're happy for me).  But after an excellent first half of 2008 (10-3 2.84 ERA), his second half was porous (4-3 5.80 ERA).  If the first half Zambrano returns, the Cubs will have that anchor atop their rotation they need and not landing Jake Peavy doesn't seem so bad.  If not though, the Cubs may be forced to trade for him in July.  Ryan Dempster had a fantastic year in 2008 transitioning from a mediocre closer to an All-Star starter.  They'll need him, Ted Lilly, and the oft-injured but un-hittable when healthy Rich Harden to all replicate their success from last year.  Look for Sean Marshall to get plenty of work this year as well, not only as a fifth starter, but as the man to take the ball in place of Harden when he has his yearly shoulder issue. 

He blew it for the Dominicans, so will he blow it for the Cubs?

That's the overreaction that's been infiltrating sports talk stations all over the Windy City over the last week or so.  The question whether the heir-apparent to the beloved Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol, is capable of handling the closer's role now that Woody's in Cleveland.  (That, and why in the hell is the Sears Tower now called the Willis Tower?)  Other than one bad month over the last two years, Marmol has been virtually untouchable as the Cubs set-up man.  In fact, a Sports Illustrated poll last year confirmed that Marmol was the most feared relief pitcher in the National League according to Senior Circuit hitters.  But whether he can move seamlessly into the closer's roll remains to be seen.  If not, Kevin Gregg and his interesting choice of spectacles will handle the 9th inning for Chicago.

Bold Predictions

1. The Cubs will win the NL Central Crown for the third straight time, probably more because their competition is weaker than their off-season retooling.  (Not so bold, but figured I'd throw it out there.)
   
2. Catcher Geovany Soto will have a bit of a sophomore slump.  The reigning National League rookie of the year will still be good, but not quite as good as last year.
3. Alfonso Soriano will eventually be moved out of the leadoff spot as a panic move by manager Lou Piniella.  And, because he's not an ideal lead-off man by any stretch.
4. Milton Bradley will have a great year, and Cubs fans won't dog him like fans have in the past.  Expect 30 home runs and 100 RBI from the board game in Right Field.
5. Micah Hoffpauir will be the centerpiece of the deal that brings Jake Peavy to the north side sometime during the season.  The other major piece of that deal will be 2008 3rd overall pick Josh Vitters. 
6. Don't expect me to finish this segment with the prediction that this is the year the Cubs finally win the World Series.  What do you think I am, an idiot?  

Don't answer that.

Up next...Tuesday, Twins 

Here's Something I Don't Understand...

Why does everyone care so much about whether a pitcher starts on opening day?

Here in Chicago, the talk has been whether Carlos Zambrano would start opening day for the Cubs for a couple of weeks. Turns out he is. I've heard discussion about whether Johan Santana can start opening day for the Mets, or whether he'll pitch the day after or the day after that. This discussion seems to take place in many cities in the country.

But why is that so important? What's so great about starting on opening day? Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's one game and doesn't count for more than one win, right? How is it so much more important than any other game?

Listen, opening day is like a holiday for me, because the realization that baseball's back is thrilling. I love watching my team play an afternoon or early evening game on the season's first day and think about how great it is that there are 161 games to follow.

At the same time, though, it's not that important. Opening day is just game one of 162. And when you look at any team in September, it is usually markedly different than it was on the season's first day.

Spare me this argument how the opening day start is so important it's worth discussing. Because the truth is, it doesn't matter one bit.

Should the Cubs or Rays Want Curt Schilling?

Curt Schilling says there's only a twenty percent chance he returns to baseball.  He hasn't pitched since 2007, and sat out all of last season rehabbing from shoulder surgery.

But if he were to come back, he says he'd like to pitch for either the Tampa Bay Rays or Chicago Cubs.

It's the obvious challenge:  take a team that hasn't won in 100 years, and break their curse like he did the Red Sox, or go to a team that until winning the American League pennant last year was the perennial doormat of the AL East.  Schilling could add to his legendary post season status, especially if he brought the Red Sox and Cubs a World Series Championship in his career.  Who else in baseball history would be able to say that?

Still, before we start worrying about where he'll go, he's not even sure he wants to pitch.  Like I said, Schilling said his chances of returning are just twenty percent.

"I'm hemming and hawing right now," Schilling said about the possibility of pitching again to ESPN Radio.  "I'll make a decision in the next couple of weeks."

Schilling has been a great pitcher in his career for stretches.  I don't believe he's a hall of famer myself, but he has had an excellent career.  He has 216 career wins, has a career ERA of 3.46 and has 3,116 career strikeouts.

His post-season numbers are amazing however, as he boasts an 11-2 career record in October with a 2.23 ERA.  The thought of having him pitch in the playoffs, especially for a Cubs team that hasn't won a post-season game during the last two years, would be enticing.

But his last full season in the bigs was fairly pedestrian.  He went 9-8 with a 3.87 ERA, and struck out 101 over 151 innings.  He also allowed 21 home runs during that stretch.  Those numbers aren't exactly the type of numbers a GM would covet, especially from a pitcher who will turn 43 this year.

If you're the Cubs, I suppose he could fit into the fifth spot in the rotation behind Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Rich Harden and Ted Lilly.  In the playoffs, maybe you start Schilling in games one or two of a playoff series, depending on how he's pitching heading into the series.  Plus, you'd have a guy who historically loves enormous pressure and wouldn't likely be fazed by the pressure the Cubs roster is usually burdened with in October.

If you're the Rays, he'd be entering a young and already crowded rotation, with Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine and David Price already responsible for rise of Tampa Bay in 2008.  It would be interesting to see him pitch against Boston in the ALCS or in the World Series, but the Rays appear to be a team that has the pitching to win it.  With more experience you'd think they could probably capture the crown without Schilling in the rotation.

And again, he turns 43 this year.

If you're getting the Schilling of the past, it would be a no brainer to have this guy in uniform as soon as he's ready to go.  If you're not though, imagine the disappointment for a Cubs team to add a guy like Schill and still not get to the promised land.  And if you're the Rays, adding him might slow the development of one of your young starters who needs the experience to improve.

What do you all think?  Post away.