Philadelphia (-3.5) @ Arizona
This match-up may be the best example of parity existing in the NFL. Not many people thought coming into this post season that the sixth seeded Eagles would be facing the least successful division winner for the right to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. I guess that's why you always hear the old cliche "that's why you play the games".
This contest provides tremendous intrigue still, especially when you consider the storylines present. As I mentioned earlier this week, I think there's no way Kurt Warner is deserving of a hall of fame bid, but if Warner elevates another team to a Super Bowl, expecially the Cardinals, it would make him a legend in Arizona. As for Donovan McNabb, every win this post season is helping his case for future consideration.
That said, it has been Warner who has played outstanding football in this post season, while McNabb has been just good enough for his Eagles to win. Warner has completed nearly 63% of his passes this post season, has thrown for 491 combined yards, and has fired four touchdown passes while only throwing two picks. And maybe most impressively, Warner led his team into Carolina last week and pummeled a Panthers squad that was a perfect 8-0 at home in the regular season.
What's more, the Cardinals much maligned defense has been stellar too, as they have caused a whopping nine turnovers in their two playoff games, including six last week. Panthers QB Jake Delhomme had probably the worst game of his career, as Arizona intercepted five of his passes and caused him to fumble as well. So entering Sunday's contest, Arizona couldn't be playing better on defense. Oh, and Anquan Boldin is expected to play, so the offense that dominated Carolina last week could be healthier and better.
Now to McNabb and the Eagles. Sunday's NFC Championship will be the fifth Donvan has lead the Eagles to in the last eight years, so experience is no problem for the former Syracuse signal caller. He was very good in the Eagles win over the Vikings in the first round of the playoffs throwing for 300 yards and a touchdown, and in last week's game against a good Giants defense McNabb did just enough to help the Eagles win the contest. Oh, and against the Cards this year on Thanksgiving night, (the game nobody saw because it was on the NFL Network), McNabb threw for 260 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 48-20 romp.
Philly's defense has been stifling, allowing an average of 12.5 points per game over their two contests. In that regular season win over the Cardinals on Turkey night, the only reason Arizona even got to 20 points was due to some garbage points at the end. They intercepted Kurt Warner three times in the game and held the Cards rushing offense to a mere 25 yards that night. I wouldn't expect a complete domination against Arizona tomorrow, but you know defensive coordinator Jim Johnson will send the house on the blitz early and often to force Warner to repeat those same mistakes.
The Cardinals are trying to reach the Super Bowl for the first time in team history, and it's going to be a tough one for them to win. The guys in Vegas think so too, as the Cardinals are home underdogs despite the fact they went 7-2 at home this season including their playoff win over Atlanta. It would be fun to see a team that perenially stinks make the Super Bowl just for the intrigue of it, but part of me wants to see Donovan McNabb finally win the Super Bowl. I'll take Arizona to cover the 3.5 point spread, and keep it close, but I'd like to see the Eagles win. (So now that I'm picking Arizona, Philly fans, book your tickets for Tampa.)
Scott's Pick: Philadelphia Jordan's Pick: Arizona
Baltimore (+5.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Ravens colors might be black and purple, and the Steelers might be black and gold. But this game figures to be black and blue the whole way through. These two teams are very similar, in that they both ranked in the top three in defense (Steelers #1, Ravens #3) during the regular season, and they rely on their defenses to set up their offense. The biggest difference, however, is the quarterback play.
Here's a basic mathematical principle that we can all understand:
Ben Roethlisberger > Joe Flacco
In the Steelers win over the Chargers last week, Ben Roethlisberger made plays to help Pittsburgh earn a hard fought win. Even though he did have the help of Willie Parker's 146 yards rushing, Roethlisberger threw a touchdown pass to Heath Miller and completed 65% of his passes to lead the Steelers to victory. The rookie Flacco, on the other hand, in two post season games, has completed just 44% of his passes, and has thrown for 296 combined yards. The key is that he hasn't thrown a pick. He doesn't make plays, but he doesn't make bad plays. That's probably the biggest reason the Ravens have survived the first two playoff rounds.
The defenses are excellent, and they're both opportunistic. In last week's win over the Chargers, Phillip Rivers threw an interception to Larry Foote inside the ten yard line which completely turned the momentum in favor of the Steelers. Especially when you consider that the play before was a Darren Sproles punt return into the red zone. It's no secret the Ravens defense has been unbelievable too, considering they made big red zone stops against the Titans last week, and Ed Reed ran wild on the Dolphins in the first round with 64-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Reed's pick was one of four the Ravens would get against a normally smart quarterback in Chad Pennington. So expect points to come at a premium tomorrow.
To pick this game, I use this logic: Both teams have great defense. Both have similar philosophy on offense, preferring to run the football to set up the pass. The Steelers have a dynamic special tems presence in Santonio Holmes, who returned a punt for a touchdown last week. But it's not like the Ravens can't cover him for one game. They have played each other twice already this season, and the Steelers won both contests. Often times, teams have trouble beating a team three times in the same season, but the Ravens wanted this match-up, openly rooting for Pittsburgh to beat San Diego last week after they beat Tennessee the day before.
The Steelers are a great team. They were 12-4 in the regular season. They earned the first round bye, but have less momentum entering this week's game because the Ravens had to win twice to get here. There's a reason for that, though: they're better than this Ravens team. They were during the regular season, and they're 7-2 at home including last week's playoff win. The Steelers have a tough spread to cover, so I'm taking the Ravens. But the Steelers should eek out this game in a close one.
Scott's Pick: Pittsburgh Jordan's Pick: Baltimore
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Everything You Need To Get Ready For NFL Championship Weekend
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Well let's see: I'm on Philly -3 and Pit/Balt over 34. It shall be itneresting
ReplyDeleteAlways go with the underdog
ReplyDeleteRose, as long as you're not going with my picks, you're winning today. Interesting with that over bet. I probably would have taken the under, but that's why you'll win that too.
ReplyDeletesuprisingly, i agree with jordan above...i wouldn't have taken the over in a game like that, esp. with the way the weather's supposed to be
ReplyDeleteAlways go with the opposite of what you think and you might win....
ReplyDeleteJordan picked a game right!!!!
ReplyDeleteYeah I did. But Baltimore is killing me right now in the 2nd quarter...
ReplyDeleteRough day for you there Rose...
ReplyDeleteI've had worse days:
ReplyDeleteNBA: Suns -2.5 W
NFL: Philly -3 L
NFL: Balt/Pit O33 W
I mean, I just don't buy this Cardinal bullshit; are they really that good? Surely inferior to the Steelers....right?