The Fantasy Baseball Nerd: A Strategy For The Ages

It doesn't help me get women.  It's not considered "cool".  I should grow up at some point.  It's been called pathetic.

I know all of these things said about playing fantasy baseball.  Trust me.  My dad told me some of them last night as I watched ESPN's hour long fantasy baseball special.  Then again, when one of your leading "experts" looks like this, can you really blame anyone for making those sort of assertions?

Thing is, I've been doing fantasy baseball for the past eight years, and I'd say I've become fairly proficient (read:  my nerdyness and lack of social life has allowed me to be competitive on a year-in, year-out basis).  And so, as we move closer to the start of the real baseball season, and throughout the year, I'm going to be putting up some fantasy baseball related posts.  I wouldn't say to count on it, because you all know how bad unfulfilled promises can be.  But, be ready.

Day 1:  Strategy

Today, I'd like to talk strategy.  For the purpose of this or any further discussion on the topic of fantasy baseball, let's assume a standard, 5 by 5, head-to-head league (BA, HR, RBI, SB, R for hitters and W, WHIP, ERA, SV, K for pitchers). 

Some leagues I've seen, some of the categories included are just flat out ridiculous.  One league a buddy of mine is includes CI.  Yes, catcher's interferences are a category.  I'm not sure who wins in that situation.  The guy with more CI's, or less?  I've also seen perfect games as a category.  Plural.  It's happened 17 times in 132 years.  Come on.

The Idea, In Theory

Last year, I brewed up a scheme. Essentially, after years of doing stupid things like drafting players I liked and players I thought would be good, I wanted to try to monopolize a few categories and try to guarantee the most that I could.  Further, I started to realize that the fluctuation in the pitching market from year to year (Aaron Harang, anyone?) really made it a crap shoot and guys like that were only helping you with strikeouts as wins were basically pot luck.

So...the idea.  I figured, if I can lock up steals, I could lock up batting average and runs.  Draft steals and saves, in heavy doses almost exclusively.  See if you can get one of those closers that has SP eligibility so you can put another in your daily lineup.  Go with guys like Jose Reyes and Ichiro and Grady Sizemore.  With one or two of these guys in your lineup along with a few other guys that steal in the 20's you should be able to lock up steals every week.  Following my logic, most guys that steal bases score runs.  And, to score runs, you've got to be on base, so their batting average isn't terrible either.  Of the 16 guys to steal at least 30 bags last year, only two didn't score at least 75 runs or hit at least .275.  

On the other side, my idea had me going heavy with closers.  The theory being that their ERAs and WHIPs would be extremely low each week, and you'd be in the mix for both of those categories.  Logically, you'd take saves.  Throw in a few cheap starters that are proven for some wins, like Chien-Ming Wang, Joe Saunders, and Derek Lowe and you're now in the mix for wins without having to gamble on guys like Joba Chamberlain or Rich Harden who seem to wind up hurting more than anything in the long run.

The Idea, In Practice

This failed miserably.  I finished in 9th place, which is the lowest I've finished in a league since 2003, and the lowest ever in a 10 team league.  I sucked major (insert phallic joke here).  Then again, that could have something to do with the fact that my "locks" like Matt Holliday (dropped 49 RBIs from the previous year), Ichiro (BA dropped 40 points), and Vladimir Guerrero (worst full statistical year in career) all decided to have down years.  In a big way.  Then, another lock, Mr. Ming Wang, decided he couldn't handle running the bases.  

Still, besides bitterness, the strategy didn't work as well as I had hoped.  I did get a ton of steals and saves, but just like any other category, they came in fits and spurts.  As you could imagine, during those dry spells my team stunk.  More often than not, that was the case.

Coming up soon...All-Bargain Team

30 Teams In 30 Days

New York Yankees: The Billion Dollar Bombers

(Over the next 30 days, BERNing on Sports will be previewing every team in the Majors, yes, even the Royals. Only one a day, every day, so try not to get too hooked)

Keeping It Real

The Yankees dumped a disgusting amount of money (recession or not) on three of the best free agent available this off-season. It came to a whopping 423.5 million. But, the reality is they actually trimmed payroll from last year (amazing as that sounds, it's true). Gone are heavy burdens like Jason Giambi (back to the Bay), Mike Mussina (retired), Bobby Abreu (allowed to avoid walls in Anaheim now), Carl Pavano (allowed to quit for another franchise), and Kyle Farnsworth (allowed to flex his muscles in purgatory...err, Kansas City). They added serious rotation depth, not just in A.J. Burnett and C.C. Sabathia, but also in the form of former ace, Chien-Ming Wang, who is healthy after missing most of last season with a freak ankle injury. Mark Teixeira may have seemed like a greedy pick up, but they needed him for a) his defense, and b) his bat (Jorge Posada and Robinson Cano aren't likely to get either younger or more consistent).

Alex Rodriguez Plays Baseball (among other things)

What can be said about this guy that hasn't been said? What more can he say or do wrong? Just a few days ago he said he wished he could play with Jose Reyes all the time. I guess Derek Jeter and Cano don't do it for ya? I can't say the steroids won't distract him, but, it won't be the first time (or last) he'll be bombarded with media coverage. My advice to Rodriguez? Take your time recovering from surgery, keep your mouth shut, and hit a home run or two when you come back.

And The Award For Most Time Spent On The DL Goes To...

With the types of players on the Yankees, the amount of money invested in them, and the history the Yankees have had with the DL, it's not a matter of who, but how often and how long. If I was running Vegas, the odds on favorite would be A.J. Burnett, and that's hard to argue with. But, to keep it interesting and because he's already starting the season on the DL, Alex Rodriguez has to make the list.

Running Proof the ROY Means Nothing

Just in case you hadn't noticed, Angel Berroa, AL ROY in 2003, is battling Cody Ransom (who at least can do this) for the back-up infielder spot. Apparently, striking out at a rate four times more frequently than walking is detrimental to your career success. Who'd have thought?

Bold Predictions

Robinson Cano will start (and finish) strong, bouncing back from a poor 2008. People have compared him to Rod Carew (easy with that) and while he's no where near that now, he'll finally have a complete season. I'll say a steady .295/20/95.

Phil Hughes in another attempt to distract people from the fact that his fastball tops out at 92 MPH, will try glasses again while pitching. When that doesn't work, he'll wear the same mask that Rip Hamilton wears.

Up Next...Friday, Atlanta Braves

Hump Day Headlines

On today's Hump Day Headlines we discuss winning streaks, big dollars, Plaxico's guns and a match up for the ages...

• The Celtics won their nineteenth straight game last night, walloping the 76ers 110-91.  The win gives Boston, the winningest basketball franchise in history, a new club record with the streak.  The last Celts loss came back on November 14th in a 94-85 loss to Denver at home, and ironically the Nuggets went without Allen Iverson in the lineup.  Thirty-nine days later, Boston heads into a Christmas Day match up with the Lakers still without another loss.   And since you're probably wondering, Boston is now ahead of the pace of the 95-96 Bulls team that went 72-10.  That Chicago club, led by Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen, was 26-3 through its first twenty-nine games.  Boston is 27-2.  We might be watching the greatest team ever this season.  Also, check out my previous post that explores this topic here.  
• Four-hundred thirty-one million dollars.  That number is the amount of cash the Yankees have doled out to four players over the last couple of weeks to overtake the Red Sox and Rays next year in the AL East.  With the acquisitions of C.C. Sabathia ($161 million) and  A.J. Burnett ($85 million), avoiding arbitration with Chien-Ming Wang ($5 million), and inking Mark Teixiera today for $180 million over eight years, the rich are certainly getting richer.  I guess we can throw that whole recession crap out the window, and the notion that the Yankees would try to cut payroll after dumping nearly $80 million off the books this off-season prior to these moves.   What will the Yankees do next year if they don't win it all?  Probably blame A-Rod.  (For more on this, check out Scott's earlier post here.)
• Two guns were found in Plaxico Burress's house yesterday.  Whoops.  I guess whatever story Plax tries to tell to get himself out of this mess is moot at this point.  Then again, he is a professional athlete, so constitutional law only partially applies to him.  And, he'll have a big money lawyer likely representing him in court March 31st.  But while he did bail himself out of jail on $100,000 bond, that money may only buy him three months of freedom...just enough to watch the Giants playoff run while he sits on the non-football injury list.
• Speaking of New York football, what a sweet match up we'll be treated to on Sunday when Miami visits Giants Stadium to take on the Jets.  Yes, it is a match up that will help decide who wins the AFC East.  But what makes this far more intriguing is that former Jet QB Chad Pennington will get to face off with the man that replaced him, in Brett Favre.  Imagine, for the already snake-bit Jets fans, to have to watch ol' Chadwick come back to knock them out of the playoffs on their home turf with a team that was 1-15 a year ago! And consider this, the Jets were 8-3 just five weeks ago, coming off victories over New England and Tennessee on the road.  Now, 1-3 over the last month, New York will need some help to get into the playoffs.  Guess Broadway Brett wasn't the savior after all.