Bluegrass Turns Green

So it's finally true. John Calipari is the new head basketball coach at Kentucky replacing Billy Gillispie.

The former Memphis coach has accepted a contract that will make him the wealthiest coach in Division I, and will place enormous expectations on him to have the Wildcats contend right away. He has reportedly signed for eight years and $35 million.

The move is a great one for Kentucky, even if they have doled out an unprecedented sum to bring Calipari to Lexington. Coach Cal is a great recruiter, and has taken both UMass and Memphis to the national championship. He is a great defensive coach, and always has great athletes playing for him.

Yet I questioned on the BERNing on Sports Podcast whether this is a good move for Calipari. Obviously, he's getting a huge sum of money that no one could pass up. I realize that Kentucky is the winningest program in Division I history and the chance to coach or play there is hard to pass up. I also know he'll inherit Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson for next year's team.

But when you consider that Calipari was already being comfortably compensated by Memphis, and he was part of a situation that set up extraordinarily well for his Tigers to succeed yearly in the NCAA Tournament, maybe Coach Cal is leaving a perfect situation behind.

After all, he's won more than sixty consecutive games in Conference USA. Last year he took the Tigers to the National Title game and with a team that lost Derrick Rose, they still earned a number two seed in this year's dance and likely would have competed for a similar position next year. Seemingly every year the last few years Memphis has earned the benefit of the doubt even though they play a weak conference schedule and they get a top seed. It seems that would be hard to leave behind.

Again, do I see why Calipari's off to Kentucky? Sure. Do I understand the lure of a school with so much tradition and history? Yes. Furthermore, do I think Calipari can do a great job and Kentucky can return to prominence under his tutelage? Yes.

But while the bluegrass seems greener on the other side, maybe it's not. Maybe this isn't the match made in heaven that many on the national networks have asserted it is. Maybe Coach Cal would be better served staying in his safety zone in Memphis where he's guaranteed success. He could still have that success at UK, but it's going to be a heck of a lot harder.

The Fantasy Baseball Nerd: All Bargain Team

On Sunday night I went through the best part of any fantasy baseball season, bar none:  the draft.

The excitement that accompanies each pick, wondering the seemingly eternal questions like, will this be the year Rich Harden stays healthy?  It's great fun.  After that, the season pretty much goes down hill.

The answer, by the way, is no.

Any how, we're all looking for bargains, players on the cheap that everyone else is going to sleep on.  You know what I'm talking about, the proverbial Jermaine Dye, that produces way above where he's selected on average in most drafts.

And so, I present my All-Bargain Team.  By the by, I'm judging what is a "bargain" on value as opposed to ADP (average draft position) in Yahoo drafts.

C - I've never understood the idea of taking any catcher before the, I don't know, 15th round?  Maybe later.  You really shouldn't have to.  Ramon Hernandez and Kelly Shoppach are two guys that will have similar numbers (lower average, but still...) to most top tier catchers.  Difference?  You can get those two guys on average 15 rounds lower.  I'd take the slight hit in BA.

1B - A deep position, no doubt, but you shouldn't have to go with a first basemen in the 1st round if you don't want to.  Sure, guys like Mark Teixeira will put up .300/30/100+, but, so do 4th and 5th round guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Youkilis.  People sleep on Gonzo, and I don't know why.  Forget the ballpark, forget how bad his team is.  They've been bad and good for a while now, and the ballpark is the same size.  3 of 5 fantasy cat's have increased since he got to San Diego (R, HR, RBIs).  As for the Greek God, he's another one that has trended upwards each year over the past 3, and plays in a great lineup in a great park.

2B - One idea I had here was Robinson Cano, primed for a bounce back year.  But, if you're not much for banking on that type of thing, Jose Lopez (on average taken in round 15) is your guy.  He'll be in the middle of the Seattle order (feigned Oh My!), has shown some pop (17 HRs) and only 2 other second basemen had as many RBIs as he did last year.

SS - The top few guys here are amazing, no doubt.  Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes produce on a level that later round guys can not match.  But, there are a few really good shortstops out there to be had later in the draft.  J.J. Hardy and Jhonny Peralta are generally available in the 9th and 10th rounds.  Both have hit over 20 homers each of the last two years, are improving, and don't have real first names.  

3B - You could go with Youk here, but a name that seems to be garnering a ton of buzz in the fantasy world is Pablo Sandoval.  People around baseball have been known to say that the two months not to pay attention to statistics in are March and September.  If you hold to that belief, you might want to stay away from Sandoval.  In a half of August and full September, the burly Sandoval (with catcher, 3b, and 1b eligibility, I believe) hit over .340 and knocked in 24.  If he's for real, who knows, but someone needs to drive in runs for San Fran, and he'll get his shot.

OF - Mark Nickakis (either way, really) is one guy you can get in the 4th round on average, that's a good bet to get somewhere near .290/25/100.  Magglio Ordonez isn't as fun or up-and-coming as a guy like Nate McClouth, but he's a near lock to mash.  Over the last 3 seasons, he's never had less than 21 HRs, 103 RBIs, or batted under .298 (all, curiously, right near what his career averages are).  Same goes for Raul Ibanez, especially in a hitter's park now.  Mags' (6th round) and Ibanez's (11th round) statistics compare quite favorably to those a few rounds higher.

SP - My theory is, if you pitch in the NL West, you're A-OKay with me.  There's one hitter, one real hitter in that whole division.  You know who I'm talking about.  So, in that line of thinking, the first guy I'd recommend is Chad Billingsley (7th round), who should be fine for Opening Day, already had his first big season innings-wise, and should be ready to stay strong the whole season this year.  Teammates Derek Lowe (13th round) and Javier Vazquez (11th round) are consistently producing, and the National League never hurt anyone.  Ted Lilly (17th round) is a steal, considering he could won that many games last year, and has had at least 15 three years in a row.  Other post 10th round names are John Danks (14th, same as Billingsley, should be ready to handle full year of pitching after big innings year last year), Scott Baker (14th, over 3 to 1 K:BB ratio last season), and Zack Greinke (12th, don't let impending psychosis, team, or my man-crush get in the way).

I'm leaving RPs off this list because there so unpredictable.  People in firm closer seats pop in and out all year, it's not worth getting excited over.  What I will say is, you can find value late, and that it's not worth going too early for them.  Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria, Jose Valverde had as many as or more saves than Jonathan Papelbon.  Not saying those guys will do it again, but the point is, it could be anyone.

Coming up next...All-Breakout Year

30 Teams in 30 Days

Texas Rangers:  How Can This Team Continue To Let Kevin Millwood Be Their Ace?

(Over the next 30 days, BERNing on Sports will be previewing every team in the Majors, yes, even the Royals. Only one a day, every day, so try not to get too hooked)

Keeping It Real

Every year it seems, the Texas Rangers run into the same confounding problem:  they can score runs with just about anyone in the league, but seem to have a little problem stopping the other team from doing the same.  Last year, to no one's surprise, the Rangers ranked last in team ERA.  They've been in the bottom half of the league in that category (more often in the bottom 5) since at least 2002.  And that's only because Yahoo!'s database doesn't go back further.  I'm sure they stunk before then.  Either way, they did try to court Ben Sheets, which was a fine effort, but nothing came of it.  Instead, they enter 2009 with Kevin Millwood and Vincente Padilla in contract years as the front members of a rag-tag rotation.  The lineup is again loaded, though now more than ever with young, less-proven talent like Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Elvis Andrus, and Chris Davis.  I don't doubt the ability of any of those guys, but outside of Hamilton, it might be a lot to ask them all to perform so early in there careers.  Oh, and Andruw Jones has decided he wanted to put down the cheeseburgers and try playing baseball again.  So that's exciting.  Best of luck pal.

More Pitching Staff Ripping

The only thing I can say positively about this staff is that there aren't many retreads, besides Kris Benson.  By the way, Kris, get over it.  If you weren't drafted first overall, people would have long gotten over the fact that you're amazingly mediocre.  On the other hand, who the hell is Matt Harrison?  Or Scott Feldman?  Or Tommy Hunter or Dustin Nippert?  These are guys that I only know having been a fantasy nerd and having played in an AL-Only league for 3 years.  I'm sure Nolan Ryan doesn't even know who some of these "young guns" are.  The only uniting factors about these young guys are that they are, well, young and that they all sport ERAs near or above 6.  As for Millwood and Padilla, I'm amazed they still are pitching in the front end of a rotation.  These guys long ago proved they're not consistent, top-end pitchers.  Neither throws hard or with a ton of command nowadays.  Meatball city, in Arlington.  Can't wait til my team gets to go down there.

The King Has Left The Building

Well, not really.  In fact, prized shortstop prospect Elvis Andrus has just entered the building, but I couldn't really think of any Elvis-related slogans that made any more sense.  Maybe, "Thank you, thank you very much" for moving a gold glover out of my position when I'm clearly not ready for a full-time gig.  Yeah, that might have done better.  Andrus hasn't hit over Double A yet and struggled mightily in the field last year (32 errors at short).  Though he did produce well while there last year (.295 with 50+ steals), the expectations for him will (should be, at least) lower for him as he'll likely bat 9th.  Why they felt the need to rush him up to the big leagues when there clearly wasn't a real reason for it, I'll never know.  I just hope it's not one of those deals where his growth winds up being stunted because he came up too early.  Not that I really care about Elvis Andrus, but, still, I'd rather not see it happen.

From Throwing Chairs, To Throwing Strikes

This is the tale of Frank Francisco, a cautionary one to be sure.  Only a few short years ago, Francisco was a disgruntled reliever best known for being a psycho.  A Tommy John surgery and a few anger management classes later, Francisco enters 2009 as the team's closer, something that they aren't too concerned about.  In his final 12.2 innings of the last month plus of last season as the closer, Francisco didn't allow a run, saved 5 games, won another, and struck out 21 while only walking 4.  Granted, it was a short span, but, maybe the Rangers might have a weapon in the bullpen.  I don't think it's much of a coincidence that the last time the Rangers were over .500 (2004) was the year another unheralded Francisco burst onto the scene in the back end of the pen.

Bold Predictions

Someone will let fantasy owners down, big time.  Maybe it'll be Chris Davis.  Maybe Josh Hamilton, or Nelson Cruz on a lesser scale.  Point is, not all of these guys are primed for huge offensive years.  Usually doesn't work that way.

Frank Francisco won't be as good as his Franciscan predecessor, but he will enjoy a violence-free, solid season.  Somewhere between 25-30 saves.  

No one mentions this guy, but if it wasn't for a knee injury ending his season prematurely last year, he'd be all the rage.  David Murphy will continue where he left off, expect 20 homers and near 90 RBIs out of the left fielder.

Up Next...Wednesday, Diamondbacks

A Little of This, A Little of That Pt. 2

None of this deserves its own full posting, so I present a smattering (smorgasbord, even?) of some sports related information.

(ed. note:  maybe I really am this dense, but it took me nearly a month to figure out the "NOT funny" comment after the last post in response to an opposite day video. well done, sir.)

• According to the New York Daily News, the formerly inaccurate throwing and dog-slaying Michael Vick is looking for a book deal.  A memoir, of sorts.  First of all, I never got the idea of people trying to write stories about themselves before they've finished their careers (or, in his case, life in the public eye as a future playing career remains up in the air).  Second, who wants to read about this guy, or his life?  Chapter One...Why Didn't Roddy White Catch Like That For Me?...Chapter Two...Fido Had It Coming...Chapter Three...Pretend Remorse in an Attempt To Get Out Of Bankruptcy...
• I never could stand Mark Cuban, ever.  I realize what he does that is good, that if he was the owner of my favorite team, I'd love him.  But, he owns the team I hate, he's constantly running his mouth, and he never shuts up about the referees.  This time, it came on Twitter, where he complained about something else the refs screwed up for him.  Here's what I want.  I want Cuban to go out there and ref a game of any kind, at any level.  Rec basketball, high school, college.  A quarter, a half, a game.  Anything.  Go and do that, and once your done, let me know how much complaining you want to do.  I'm not saying referees are infallible, but, jeez already, give them a break.
• You can look at Dontrelle Willis' recent DL-stint for a blood related anxiety disorder in two ways.  First and foremost, it's a bit sad how far he's fallen, if only because he's a guy that not much was expected of when he first started playing pro ball, and then in a few short years won 22 games.  And, unlike so many other pro athletes, Willis legitimately seems like a really nice, likeable guy.  The leg kick, the smile, the fact that he could hit better than most Marlins at the time.  The whole bit.  So, if only for those reasons, to see a guy that was dominating the National League only a few years ago not be able to get guys out in Single A is a bit depressing.  The other side of things is, I wonder how much of his recent DL trip is a "I walked nearly twice as many guys as I struck out last year" thing, as opposed to a disorder thing.  Not that I doubt the results of the test, but, somehow I feel like if he had rediscovered his command, he'd have found a way into that 5th spot this year, and not on the DL.
• I love the guy, but, shouldn't this be a good thing?
• Saw this on the BLS on Yahoo.  Not sure who Fredi Gonzalez thinks he is having all of his players get hair cuts, but I guess I see the point of trying to make the clubhouse a bit more professional.  Then again, I think it's fair to say that if a player (ahem, Hanley) decides wearing a "I'm Sick of This S**t" t-shirt is the grown-up way to handle things, maybe Gonzalez isn't so far off base.

New BERNing On Sports Podcast Available

On today's podcast, Scott and I talk College Hoops again, as the NCAA Tournament moves towards the final four. We'll also delve into the John Calipari situation as he may move to Kentucky. We also have a longer Hail Mary segment where we throw out a bunch of topics including Michael Vick's memoir soon to hit the bookshelves.

Click Here to access this week's BERNing on Sports podcast.

As always, once this post moves down, you can find it on the red right tab. However, next week we'll be moving to berningonsports.com, which will make all this MUCH easier!

Enjoy!

30 Teams in 30 Days

Seattle Mariners:  Better A Year Late Than Never

(Over the next 30 days, BERNing on Sports will be previewing every team in the Majors, yes, even the Royals. Only one a day, every day, so try not to get too hooked)

Keeping It Real

The "team" the Mariners ran out there everyday last year was putrid.  No questions about it.  Guys like Richie Sexson and Kenji Johjima just aren't the kind of guys you want around if winning is your thing.   Unfortunately, while Sexy is gone, Johjima is still manning the plate (trust us, Jeff Clement knows it's not about ability but rather a poor contract decision the Mariners would prefer we not discuss).  Still, less poisonous members (in fact, down right peachy!) of the team return. Jose Lopez, Ichiro, Felix Hernandez and others form a group of guys that may not look like much, but keep in mind the division they play in.  None of the teams in the AL West will run away and hide at any point, especially with seemingly every Angels starter beginning the season on the DL.  The key, far as I'm concerned, is Erik Bedard returning to his top form.  If he can, this team, believe it or not, will compete all season long for that division.

Does Erik Bedard Feel Like Playing Baseball This Year?

As I just mentioned, the Canuck is the key.  The guy they acquired for sleepy prospect Adam Jones a year ago was one of the best left handed pitchers in the game, even if he'd yet to throw 200 innings in a season.  His ERA had dropped each of the previous four years, and his strike out totals rose each of those years as well.  A move to a real pitcher's park in Seattle seemed like a great move for Bedard.  Then, he got hurt, and stories came out that he just didn't really care too much for giving it his all in baseball.  Not good for one of your aces.  This year, despite getting consistently shelled this spring, he says he feels fine.  The Mariners should hope so.

The Kid is Back

This is all I have to show you.  Oh, and, "Call me, call me, call me Junior".

The Lone Mariner To Show Actual Improvement

Jose Lopez seems to be, from what I've read and looked at, the only Mariner that improved from 2007 to 2008.  While most guys were busy either not caring, not hitting, not improving, or simply moving their way out of baseball, Lopez actually trended upwards.  More power, better average, more RBIs.  No one on Earth talks about him, but he's a pretty good hitter.  I'm not saying I'm comfortable with him as a meat of the order guy, but, there's worse options.  Like, say, Richie Sexson.  

Could This Be The Year For The King?

Felix Hernandez came up with Doc Gooden-esque hype.  He's yet to reach it yet, and most people point to the fact that even still he's only 22 years old.  Over the years, he's battled a number of ailments (shoulder bursitis, shin splints, ankle sprain, etc.) but appears to be (wink, wink) ready to go for 2009.  He may not be in what many consider a desirable situation after the WBC, but King Felix insists he'll be fine.  He's one of the harder pitchers to truly figure out, seeing as how electric he can be one outing, and how mediocre he can be another. To date, he's yet to put it all together.  Will this be the year?  I can't really say, as I've been part of the group saying each of the previous 3 years would be "the year".

Bold Predictions

Wladimir Balentien will issue a public apology for his name, finally admitting that a W/L combination in a name is nearly impossible to know how to pronounce.

Brandon Morrow, newly anointed as the team's closer, will save at least 25 games this year.  Maybe I just caught him at his peak, but I'm in love with this kid.  

Griff will be happy, the fans will be happy to see him.  His season will be better than last, maybe 20 homers (maybe?), but nothing special.  All in all, a  nice ride off into the sunset for the Kid.

Up Next...Tuesday, Rangers

This Was Extremely Necessary

Three knee surgeries in a year and a half? Check.

Two ill-attempted comebacks already?  Check.

A team more than 40 games under .500?  Check.

Nearly a full season gone by without so much as an update as to his whereabouts?  Check.

Based on this impromptu checklist, it seems to me like Gilbert Arenas needed to come back, if only to rev up the nation's capital before they fully go to sleep when the Zimmerman Bros. come to town for the summer.

Why Agent Zero thought it would be a good idea to return to the Washington Wizards, with only nine games remaining, I can't really say with any certainty.  Maybe he figured he had a whole bunch of extra time on his hands. Maybe, and more likely, he's the most selfish player this side of Ricky Davis.  Only a player as selfish as Arenas, only a player as blinded by his own personal goals and desires would come back with so few games left in the season, and so little to play for. 

The Wizards were a playoff team, as recently as last year.  With a healthy Arenas and company in the East, they could again be a playoff team next year.  How much of an accomplishment that actually would be is being investigated by our crack team as you read this.

Either way, stupidity and arrogance are the only factors at play.  Though he came back for the final 9 games, he will only play in 7, as he's being held out of the second end of back-to-backs.  Oh yeah, that's right, he's recovering from knee surgery.  His third.  Forgot about that.

A couple of the obvious possibilities that could result from this comeback are that he could get hurt or could wind up making it worse.  But, something else to consider is that his presence could possibly sneak in a few more wins and lose a few ping pong balls for the Wizards.

I find it personally ironic that in a season for the Wizards that, basically since jump street has been all about praying for that number one draft pick, their superstar's first game back heroics were swatted away by Kwame Brown.  

Sometimes, you can't make this stuff up.