Showing posts with label Scott Baker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Scott Baker. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

The Fantasy Baseball Nerd: All Bargain Team

On Sunday night I went through the best part of any fantasy baseball season, bar none:  the draft.

The excitement that accompanies each pick, wondering the seemingly eternal questions like, will this be the year Rich Harden stays healthy?  It's great fun.  After that, the season pretty much goes down hill.

The answer, by the way, is no.

Any how, we're all looking for bargains, players on the cheap that everyone else is going to sleep on.  You know what I'm talking about, the proverbial Jermaine Dye, that produces way above where he's selected on average in most drafts.

And so, I present my All-Bargain Team.  By the by, I'm judging what is a "bargain" on value as opposed to ADP (average draft position) in Yahoo drafts.

C - I've never understood the idea of taking any catcher before the, I don't know, 15th round?  Maybe later.  You really shouldn't have to.  Ramon Hernandez and Kelly Shoppach are two guys that will have similar numbers (lower average, but still...) to most top tier catchers.  Difference?  You can get those two guys on average 15 rounds lower.  I'd take the slight hit in BA.

1B - A deep position, no doubt, but you shouldn't have to go with a first basemen in the 1st round if you don't want to.  Sure, guys like Mark Teixeira will put up .300/30/100+, but, so do 4th and 5th round guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Youkilis.  People sleep on Gonzo, and I don't know why.  Forget the ballpark, forget how bad his team is.  They've been bad and good for a while now, and the ballpark is the same size.  3 of 5 fantasy cat's have increased since he got to San Diego (R, HR, RBIs).  As for the Greek God, he's another one that has trended upwards each year over the past 3, and plays in a great lineup in a great park.

2B - One idea I had here was Robinson Cano, primed for a bounce back year.  But, if you're not much for banking on that type of thing, Jose Lopez (on average taken in round 15) is your guy.  He'll be in the middle of the Seattle order (feigned Oh My!), has shown some pop (17 HRs) and only 2 other second basemen had as many RBIs as he did last year.

SS - The top few guys here are amazing, no doubt.  Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes produce on a level that later round guys can not match.  But, there are a few really good shortstops out there to be had later in the draft.  J.J. Hardy and Jhonny Peralta are generally available in the 9th and 10th rounds.  Both have hit over 20 homers each of the last two years, are improving, and don't have real first names.  

3B - You could go with Youk here, but a name that seems to be garnering a ton of buzz in the fantasy world is Pablo Sandoval.  People around baseball have been known to say that the two months not to pay attention to statistics in are March and September.  If you hold to that belief, you might want to stay away from Sandoval.  In a half of August and full September, the burly Sandoval (with catcher, 3b, and 1b eligibility, I believe) hit over .340 and knocked in 24.  If he's for real, who knows, but someone needs to drive in runs for San Fran, and he'll get his shot.

OF - Mark Nickakis (either way, really) is one guy you can get in the 4th round on average, that's a good bet to get somewhere near .290/25/100.  Magglio Ordonez isn't as fun or up-and-coming as a guy like Nate McClouth, but he's a near lock to mash.  Over the last 3 seasons, he's never had less than 21 HRs, 103 RBIs, or batted under .298 (all, curiously, right near what his career averages are).  Same goes for Raul Ibanez, especially in a hitter's park now.  Mags' (6th round) and Ibanez's (11th round) statistics compare quite favorably to those a few rounds higher.

SP - My theory is, if you pitch in the NL West, you're A-OKay with me.  There's one hitter, one real hitter in that whole division.  You know who I'm talking about.  So, in that line of thinking, the first guy I'd recommend is Chad Billingsley (7th round), who should be fine for Opening Day, already had his first big season innings-wise, and should be ready to stay strong the whole season this year.  Teammates Derek Lowe (13th round) and Javier Vazquez (11th round) are consistently producing, and the National League never hurt anyone.  Ted Lilly (17th round) is a steal, considering he could won that many games last year, and has had at least 15 three years in a row.  Other post 10th round names are John Danks (14th, same as Billingsley, should be ready to handle full year of pitching after big innings year last year), Scott Baker (14th, over 3 to 1 K:BB ratio last season), and Zack Greinke (12th, don't let impending psychosis, team, or my man-crush get in the way).

I'm leaving RPs off this list because there so unpredictable.  People in firm closer seats pop in and out all year, it's not worth getting excited over.  What I will say is, you can find value late, and that it's not worth going too early for them.  Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria, Jose Valverde had as many as or more saves than Jonathan Papelbon.  Not saying those guys will do it again, but the point is, it could be anyone.

Coming up next...All-Breakout Year

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

30 Teams in 30 Days

Minnesota Twins:  Putting Prospects (Sometimes Yours) To Work
(Over the next 30 days, BERNing on Sports will be previewing every team in the Majors, yes, even the Royals.  Only one a day, every day, so try not to get too hooked.)

Keeping It Real
If you're looking at the Twins roster at any point and your not a fantasy baseball nerd (check) or American League Central fan, the likelihood that you've heard of all of these guys is quite slim.  Don't fret.  The Twinkies, at just around 26 years of age, are the third youngest team in the league, loaded with their own prospects (Denard Span, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Scott Baker, etc.), other teams former prospects (like John Bonser, Delmon Young, and Joe Crede), and other teams actual prospects (Carlos Gomez).  It's fair to say that they've done quite well for themselves, losing big name players seemingly every year, and still competing.  Considering the rest of the teams didn't do too much to improve themselves and that the Twins are now a year older after a 163 game regular season last year, they should find themselves in the thick of AL Central competition all season.

Joe Mauer's Achy Back
I'm not going to hide it, I've never been a huge fan of Joe Mauer.  Not to take anything away from him, but I just never bought into this hype that had him imagined as a top flight MLB player.  Sure, the numbers he puts up (for a catcher) are good and he can actually field the position (ahem, Josh Phelps).  But, let's be honest about this dude.  Three hitters that hit for a nice average, don't drive in more than 80 or so runs (in a good year), and can't hit more than 10 homers are called Bobby Abreu.  Not, the best new young thing.  OK, now that I've finished bashing the best young catcher in the league, his back injury has become something of a spot of worry for the Twins.  No one seems to know exactly what is wrong or how long he'll be out.  Regardless of his lack of power or run-producing ability, he'll undoubtedly be missed as the Twins lineup, while consistently solid, is already lacking in pop (only 3 guys had either 10 or more homers and 70 or more RBIs).

Proof That Home Runs Are Overrated
Last year, the Twins ranked 29th in the league in homers hit, but 4th in the league in runs scored.  How in the hell?  Well, first, they've got a lot of what I call the David Eckstein-annoying-as-hell-but-effective quotient.  Scrappy little guys like Span and Alexi Casilla (expect some more steals this year you fantasy mongers) are able to outweigh the complete disappearance of power from a guy like Delmon Young or lack of it from Mauer.  I know I can't be the only AL fan to lick his chops when the Twins come to town, thinking that they only have one real hitter to fear in their whole lineup (sorry, not you Jason Kubel).  But, 6 of the 9 guys in their projected line up hit over .270 last year.  Fact is, they hit.  May not go a whole long way, but, it doesn't always have to.

A Quick Fantasy Note
Don't sleep on a guy like Scott Baker, please.  Somehow, this guy isn't catching on big time yet.  He was a solid to dominant pitcher for the last 4 months of the season last year.  He won't compete for a Cy Young any time soon, but the strikeout to walk ratio is sure to surprise (3.5/1) and he's only now rounding into what should be his first full 200 inning season.  Expect 15 wins, a sub-4 ERA, and near 175 K's.  I'd say that's pretty good.

Bold Predictions
Francisco Liriano, who has had a terrific spring, will return to top form this year.  Maybe not striking out 12 a game like 2006, but we will see more than just a flash of what made this kid the heir-apparent to Santana.  Usually, the second year after Tommy John is when you see full recovery, and sometimes even improvement.

Despite a balanced, youthful, improving staff, the lack of a 8th inning guy to compliment Joe Nathan will hurt the team at some point. Guys like Jesse Crain, Luis Ayala, and Matt Guerrier just don't seem like they can (or ever have been able to) get it done. How much it will hurt, I can't say.  I literally mean that, I'm not allowed.  I do know, but the league won't let me tell you.  Sorry.

Up Next...Wednesday, Astros