The Fantasy Baseball Nerd: All Bargain Team

On Sunday night I went through the best part of any fantasy baseball season, bar none:  the draft.

The excitement that accompanies each pick, wondering the seemingly eternal questions like, will this be the year Rich Harden stays healthy?  It's great fun.  After that, the season pretty much goes down hill.

The answer, by the way, is no.

Any how, we're all looking for bargains, players on the cheap that everyone else is going to sleep on.  You know what I'm talking about, the proverbial Jermaine Dye, that produces way above where he's selected on average in most drafts.

And so, I present my All-Bargain Team.  By the by, I'm judging what is a "bargain" on value as opposed to ADP (average draft position) in Yahoo drafts.

C - I've never understood the idea of taking any catcher before the, I don't know, 15th round?  Maybe later.  You really shouldn't have to.  Ramon Hernandez and Kelly Shoppach are two guys that will have similar numbers (lower average, but still...) to most top tier catchers.  Difference?  You can get those two guys on average 15 rounds lower.  I'd take the slight hit in BA.

1B - A deep position, no doubt, but you shouldn't have to go with a first basemen in the 1st round if you don't want to.  Sure, guys like Mark Teixeira will put up .300/30/100+, but, so do 4th and 5th round guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Youkilis.  People sleep on Gonzo, and I don't know why.  Forget the ballpark, forget how bad his team is.  They've been bad and good for a while now, and the ballpark is the same size.  3 of 5 fantasy cat's have increased since he got to San Diego (R, HR, RBIs).  As for the Greek God, he's another one that has trended upwards each year over the past 3, and plays in a great lineup in a great park.

2B - One idea I had here was Robinson Cano, primed for a bounce back year.  But, if you're not much for banking on that type of thing, Jose Lopez (on average taken in round 15) is your guy.  He'll be in the middle of the Seattle order (feigned Oh My!), has shown some pop (17 HRs) and only 2 other second basemen had as many RBIs as he did last year.

SS - The top few guys here are amazing, no doubt.  Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes produce on a level that later round guys can not match.  But, there are a few really good shortstops out there to be had later in the draft.  J.J. Hardy and Jhonny Peralta are generally available in the 9th and 10th rounds.  Both have hit over 20 homers each of the last two years, are improving, and don't have real first names.  

3B - You could go with Youk here, but a name that seems to be garnering a ton of buzz in the fantasy world is Pablo Sandoval.  People around baseball have been known to say that the two months not to pay attention to statistics in are March and September.  If you hold to that belief, you might want to stay away from Sandoval.  In a half of August and full September, the burly Sandoval (with catcher, 3b, and 1b eligibility, I believe) hit over .340 and knocked in 24.  If he's for real, who knows, but someone needs to drive in runs for San Fran, and he'll get his shot.

OF - Mark Nickakis (either way, really) is one guy you can get in the 4th round on average, that's a good bet to get somewhere near .290/25/100.  Magglio Ordonez isn't as fun or up-and-coming as a guy like Nate McClouth, but he's a near lock to mash.  Over the last 3 seasons, he's never had less than 21 HRs, 103 RBIs, or batted under .298 (all, curiously, right near what his career averages are).  Same goes for Raul Ibanez, especially in a hitter's park now.  Mags' (6th round) and Ibanez's (11th round) statistics compare quite favorably to those a few rounds higher.

SP - My theory is, if you pitch in the NL West, you're A-OKay with me.  There's one hitter, one real hitter in that whole division.  You know who I'm talking about.  So, in that line of thinking, the first guy I'd recommend is Chad Billingsley (7th round), who should be fine for Opening Day, already had his first big season innings-wise, and should be ready to stay strong the whole season this year.  Teammates Derek Lowe (13th round) and Javier Vazquez (11th round) are consistently producing, and the National League never hurt anyone.  Ted Lilly (17th round) is a steal, considering he could won that many games last year, and has had at least 15 three years in a row.  Other post 10th round names are John Danks (14th, same as Billingsley, should be ready to handle full year of pitching after big innings year last year), Scott Baker (14th, over 3 to 1 K:BB ratio last season), and Zack Greinke (12th, don't let impending psychosis, team, or my man-crush get in the way).

I'm leaving RPs off this list because there so unpredictable.  People in firm closer seats pop in and out all year, it's not worth getting excited over.  What I will say is, you can find value late, and that it's not worth going too early for them.  Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria, Jose Valverde had as many as or more saves than Jonathan Papelbon.  Not saying those guys will do it again, but the point is, it could be anyone.

Coming up next...All-Breakout Year

It's Exciting, Even If You're Not Watching

I have mentioned on this forum and in the podcast during the last few weeks that the biggest reason why the World Baseball Classic isn't front page news in the states is simply because Americans don't care.

I still think that's true, because while I consider myself one of the biggest baseball fans on the planet I'm waiting for this tournament to end so the real season can get started.  And I know from talking to many others about this that I'm not alone.

But did you see last night's win for the Americans over Puerto Rico?

I was working last night, and when the game ended I drove to a local bar to watch the rest of the Bulls game with some buddies.  We saw the end of the baseball game, however, and it was thrilling to say the least.  The walk that sent Kevin Youkilis to the plate with the bases loaded, and the two run knock by David Wright to bring home the tying and winning runs.  I was pumping my fist in celebration to see Team USA pull the game out.  I have barely watched any of this tournament, but to see the comeback unfold, as a sports fan, was great entertainment.

There are obvious problems with the WBC, as Scott and I have pointed out before.  Not all the best players are involved in the event.  The rules limiting pitchers give some of the games a glorified spring training feel.   

But the players are going all-out at all times.  The passion and emotion they're displaying makes you forget it's March and makes you think it's October.  Granted, last night was an exciting game, and I wouldn't be making this point after the American team got clubbed a couple of nights ago by the Puerto Ricans via the mercy rule.  

Still, it was great theater and maybe more of us should be watching.  The players care, whether we do or we don't.  And it's better than watching spring training games, right?

30 Teams in 30 Days

Boston Red Sox: When You're A Game Away From The Series, How Many Changes Do You Really Need To Make?

(Over the next 30 days, BERNing on Sports will be previewing every team in the Majors, yes, even the Royals. Only one a day, every day, so try not to get too hooked)

Keeping It Real

While the Yankees were busy acting like the nerdy kid that had a beach house on prom night, trying to impress all the cool kids, the Red Sox more appropriately played the role of Chris Ostreicher, knowing that they are the s**t, and not feeling a ton of peer pressure to do too much to show it. Sure, they whiffed big time on not getting Marky Mark and that could certainly hurt David Ortiz over the course of a full season. But, they will have a full season of Jason Bay and are aiming to have a healthier season from Mike Lowell. What would scare me if I was a Sox fan is that David Ortiz had (by far, but more on that in a minute) his worst season in Beantown last year and you know that Dustin Pedroia is unlikely to repeat his numbers from last year. And that's no knock on Dusty, but when you nearly double 4 offensive categories, that's tough to follow up. The rotation is four deep, as per usual. Interesting to see if Brad Penny has anything left in that right shoulder of his. Likely...not.

Will The Real Cookie Monster Please Stand Up?

Which is the real David Ortiz? The one that averaged over 40 bombs and over 125 RBIs in his first 5 seasons, or the .264/23/89 guy we saw last year? I can't say for certain. Clearly, losing Manny hurts Ortiz, but Bay isn't a nothing. Then again, Red Sox apologists will point to that fact that Big Papi was injured for most of last year, which is certainly fair. Either way, it's a huge year for Ortiz to prove he doesn't need Manny in the lineup to be a fierce slugger.

Odds and Ends, A Bargain Hunters Winter

It seemed like they got a bunch of quality players without spending more money than they had to. Takashi Saito, Rocco Baldelli, John Smoltz, and even Ramon Ramirez (who?). All guys that have had good seasons, are coming off good seasons, or are coming off injuries. Are, all three. Point is, the Red Sox really could come off like geniuses here. Only one or two of the guys need to pan out for it to actually work. Not sure how much Baldelli will be able to contribute, but if Saito, Ramirez, Penny, or Smoltz (any of them, really) play well, it should go down as a job well done. Thus, the beauty of the bargain.

Julio Lugo Stinks. When Will The Red Sox Realize This?

He does. I'm sorry, injury or not, he's just not a good baseball player. He had one very good full season, and another decent full season. That was three years ago. Since his Tampa days, Lugo's failed to reach .270, and in half a season last year he made 16 errors. Get this guy out of here. I don't care if Jed Lowrie isn't that good, or isn't fully ready. You're the Red Sox, for pete's sake.

Bold Predictions

J.D. Drew will be injured at some point. Sorry, that's not bold at all, is it?

Following his on-again, off-again career path, Josh Beckett will have another big year in 2009.

Ok, real one. Kevin Youkilis will have another big time season (his numbers have been climbing each of the last 3 years), and hopefully people will recognize him for the top notch offensive player he really is.

Up Next...Sunday, Marlins.