30 Teams In 30 Days

San Diego Padres:  Jake Peavy Is Still Their Employee

(Over the next 30 days, BERNing on Sports will be previewing every team in the Majors, yes, even the Royals.  Only one a day, every day, so try not to get too hooked.)

Jake Peavy's Still A Padre

The only thing anyone heard this off-season regarding the Padres (other than their blockbuster free agent signing of catcher Henry Blanco) was whether former Cy Young award winning ace Jake Peavy would be wearing a new uniform come opening day.  First we heard about a potential deal to Atlanta, then the rest of the off season seemed to be a game of chess between Cubs GM Jim Hendry and Padres GM Kevin Towers.  Nothing ever happened, despite the fact he was found drunkenly singing "Go Cubs Go" at the winter meetings and he was signing autographs with "Go Cubs" below his name.  He has since denied this, because he was drunk enough that he probably doesn't remember, but it was quite a scene at the Las Vegas Hilton and the Bellagio last December.  Now that Peavy apparently isn't headed anywhere and he'll remain the Padres ace, that's means they have a good chance to win at least once every five days.  Twice when you consider that Chris Young is apparently healthy again and ready to go as well.  Not a bad one-two punch for a team that lost 99 games last year.

Peavy and Young, But Who Else?

Do the Padres have five starting pitchers employed for 2009?  I'm really not so sure.  After the aforementioned Peavy and Young, I suppose Cha-Seung Baek pitches the third day of 2009.  After that, who?  Yahoo Sports only has three pitchers listed in this rotation, which cannot be right, unless San Diego's pending ownership change has gotten so bad that they're trying to go with a three man rotation 1930s style.  Better judgment suggests they might put Kevin Correia and Shawn Hill on the back end of the rotation, or pitchers of the like, and that tells you all you need to know about the lack of pitching depth on this team.  Not to mention that long time closer Trevor Hoffman now gets his mail forwarded to Milwaukee and the Fathers will likely have to settle for Heath Bell as the closer.  Yikes.

Where Hitters Go To Die

Remember the Brian Giles that played for Cleveland and Pittsburgh?  He was one of the best hitters in the game.  The one that has played for San Diego over the last six seasons is half the player he was before.  Credit that to playing in the cavernous Petco Park, allege that he was a steroid user, do whatever you want.  But this guy hasn't hit more than 15 home runs in any of the last four years.  He's gone from great hitter to "walk machine".  Other than Adrian Gonzalez, who is apparently so good this ballpark can't do him in, there's no one in this lineup that stands out as a guy who will have a significant impact on their offense.  Kevin Kouzmanoff seems to be developing into a nice player, but can he be the right handed hitter the Padres could sandwich into the lineup between Giles and Gonzalez?  Probably not.  This offense stinks, flat out.  And it will continue to stink, unless everyone in the lineup has a career year.

Moorad Takes Over

According to sources in San Diego, Jeff Moorad's ownership group, which currently owns 35 percent of the team, is going to be taking over the decision making for the Padres even though their transition to majority ownership may not officially occur for a few years.  What does this mean for the product on the field?  Well Moorad did a nice job running the Diamondbacks previously, as they made the playoffs and rebuilt with a young lineup in 2007.  San Diego is hoping for the same thing.  But the Padres will be strapped for cash over the next couple of years while things are in transition, and this could mean San Diego will eventually dump big contracts like Peavy's and others to the first taker.  Stay tuned.

Bold Predictions

1. San Diego won't be nearly as bad as last year, and with Peavy and Young atop the rotation they may hover around the .500 mark until mid-season.  But at that point they'll realize they can't contend with either the Dodgers or Arizona and they'll dump Peavy and maybe even Chris Young.
2. Kevin Kouzmanoff will hit 30 home runs this year.  He'll also drive in a hundred runs.  His offense however, will be the least productive in baseball.
3. The Padres will trade Brian Giles at the break to a contending team.

30 Teams In 30 Days

Chicago Cubs:  When Will "Next Year" Be Here?

(Over the next 30 days, BERNing on Sports will be previewing every team in the Majors, yes, even the Royals.  Only one a day, every day, so try not to get too hooked.)

The Pressure's Always On

The Cubs may be entering the 2009 season coming off back to back division titles, a feat they hadn't accomplished since they won the World Series in back to back seasons in 1907 and 1908.  But the fact remains Chicago's National League ball club has been swept in back to back playoff series spiraling its fervent fan base into a whirlwind of disappointment.  The 2007 sweep by the Diamondbacks can be chalked up to a the fact that the 85-77 Cubs really weren't all that good.  But the 2008 outfit won 97 games and was the clear-cut favorite in the national league until walks, errors and James Loney sent the Cubs home early last year.  The pressure on the Cubs to win in 2009 is, like always, extraordinary, especially now that the glory drought on the north side has reached year number 101.  And consider skipper Lou Piniella is in the final year of his contract and the team isn't getting any younger.

Lefty Loosey, Righty Tighty

One of the most prominent rationalizations for why last year's Cubs didn't bring any hardware to Wrigley Field in late October was that their lineup was too right-handed.  So they traded Mark DeRosa to Cleveland, signed switch hitting right fielder Milton Bradley from Texas, and picked up Aaron Miles, another switch hitter, to platoon at various infield positions.  They also added back up catcher Paul Bako, a left handed hitter (to replace right handed hitting Hank White) and the speedy light-hitting (but left-handed) Joey Gathright to battle for a back-up outfield spot.  You might say none of these moves were significant other than the Bradley signing.  And you might be right.  But the Cubs will be far more balanced this year than they were last year.  Sweet Lou hopes the Kosuke Fukudome from the first half of 2008 shows up this year and not the one who looked like a top spinning itself into the left handed batters box in the second half of last season.  The Cubs are also banking on a breakout year from 2nd baseman Mike Fontenot.  The opening day lineup figures to feature three lefties in the starting nine and a bunch of options off the bench.  So if they don't win it this year, at least we can't say they didn't have left-handed hitting.

They Didn't Get Jake Peavy...

So they better hope their pitching staff can replicate, for the most part, the success of last season.  I say for the most part because even though the staff ranked 5th in baseball in ERA and compiled the most strikeouts of any team in the bigs, they also had some shaky performances from ace Carlos Zambrano down the stretch.  Yes, he threw a no-hitter September 14th last year against the Astros, which I happened to attend (I know you're happy for me).  But after an excellent first half of 2008 (10-3 2.84 ERA), his second half was porous (4-3 5.80 ERA).  If the first half Zambrano returns, the Cubs will have that anchor atop their rotation they need and not landing Jake Peavy doesn't seem so bad.  If not though, the Cubs may be forced to trade for him in July.  Ryan Dempster had a fantastic year in 2008 transitioning from a mediocre closer to an All-Star starter.  They'll need him, Ted Lilly, and the oft-injured but un-hittable when healthy Rich Harden to all replicate their success from last year.  Look for Sean Marshall to get plenty of work this year as well, not only as a fifth starter, but as the man to take the ball in place of Harden when he has his yearly shoulder issue. 

He blew it for the Dominicans, so will he blow it for the Cubs?

That's the overreaction that's been infiltrating sports talk stations all over the Windy City over the last week or so.  The question whether the heir-apparent to the beloved Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol, is capable of handling the closer's role now that Woody's in Cleveland.  (That, and why in the hell is the Sears Tower now called the Willis Tower?)  Other than one bad month over the last two years, Marmol has been virtually untouchable as the Cubs set-up man.  In fact, a Sports Illustrated poll last year confirmed that Marmol was the most feared relief pitcher in the National League according to Senior Circuit hitters.  But whether he can move seamlessly into the closer's roll remains to be seen.  If not, Kevin Gregg and his interesting choice of spectacles will handle the 9th inning for Chicago.

Bold Predictions

1. The Cubs will win the NL Central Crown for the third straight time, probably more because their competition is weaker than their off-season retooling.  (Not so bold, but figured I'd throw it out there.)
   
2. Catcher Geovany Soto will have a bit of a sophomore slump.  The reigning National League rookie of the year will still be good, but not quite as good as last year.
3. Alfonso Soriano will eventually be moved out of the leadoff spot as a panic move by manager Lou Piniella.  And, because he's not an ideal lead-off man by any stretch.
4. Milton Bradley will have a great year, and Cubs fans won't dog him like fans have in the past.  Expect 30 home runs and 100 RBI from the board game in Right Field.
5. Micah Hoffpauir will be the centerpiece of the deal that brings Jake Peavy to the north side sometime during the season.  The other major piece of that deal will be 2008 3rd overall pick Josh Vitters. 
6. Don't expect me to finish this segment with the prediction that this is the year the Cubs finally win the World Series.  What do you think I am, an idiot?  

Don't answer that.

Up next...Tuesday, Twins