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The Picks - Division Winners, Champions

Scott mentioned how the preseason predictions of post season awards is ridiculous. And while many "experts" usually have better luck with the prognostication of division winners and eventual world series champions, there is always one team that makes us all look ridiculously dumb. Tampa Bay Rays anyone? I don't think any of the players down in St. Pete would have chosen them to win the American League Pennant. On that note, check this out in six months and let us know how stupid we are....

The Divisions:
AL East:

Scott: Red Sox - I don't necessarily think they've got such a great team, and the Manny-hole in the lineup will be apparent, all season. But, injuries to the Yankees will hurt them. The Rays bullpen will falter this year, ruining a great year from the rest of the team.

Jordan: Yankees - Scott's likely being a massochist by not picking the Yanks to win the division considering they spent a kagillion dollars this off season. But this year they have what they didn't have the last couple of years, a dominant ace. C.C. you back in the playoffs, Pinstripes. And the Red Sox seemingly never win the division. Even last year Tampa Bay won the East and not Boston.

AL Central:

Scott: Twins - Young guns (Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey) and the return of Francisco Liriano, coupled with a big year from Justin Morneau put this team on top of a division lacking any front runners. The Indians and White Sox will be around all year, though.

Jordan: Indians - You could really pick a name out of a hat for this division winner, but I expect a good year from Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez (both returning from injury), and they've added stability to the back end of the bullpen with Kerry Wood.

AL West:

Scott: Mariners - Again, not a great team, but I'm expecting big things out of King Felix and Erik Bedard. On top of that, I don't think the Angels are going to be as good as they have been in year's past, due to injuries and decline.

Jordan: Athletics - I've been thinking about this for a while, and maybe I'm insane. It doesn't appear this club has any pitching. But the Angels won't be as good, we agree, and while I think the M's could compete Oakland's lineup may be good enough to eek this out.

AL Wild Card:

Scott: Yankees - Nagging injuries to Joba Chamberlain, A.J. Burnett, and Alex Rodriguez will pester the Yankees, but their depth will allow them to put together a solid season to make the playoffs, getting strong and healthy just as October rolls around.

Jordan: Red Sox - Yankees Jr. get in again. Very good pitching, good line up, and a good bullpen. They're always balanced, and they appear to be a sure fire 90+ win team.

NL East:

Scott: Phillies - Bottom line, need to see the Mets not blow it in September. Need to see it, before I can predict it.

Jordan: Mets - It would be so Philadelphia for that team to not win the NL East the year after winning it all. And, the Mets have added two closers, so things have to improve in the back end of the pen. No collapse this year.

NL Central:

Scott: Cubs - Far and away, best team in this division, no questions asked. I may have them going to far (who doesn't want to be the guy picking them to win the World Series?) in the post season, but this team is far too talented and deep not to win this division.

Jordan: Cubs - Did you think I'd pick someone else? But seriously, who is better than the Cubs in the Central? Exactly. No one. They may not win 97 this year, but even if they win just 90 that should be good enough. And Scott, take it easy with this World Series talk.

NL West:

Scott: Dodgers - Poor division will allow the Dodgers to win this one. It'll be tight, because no one's really that good, but there's one difference between the Dodgers and the rest of the division: Manny Ramirez. The Giants and Diamondbacks don't have him (or any good hitters).

Jordan: Dodgers - What Scott said.

NL Wild Card:
Scott: Reds - Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto are primed to put together full, dominant seasons. A young core of Phillips, Votto, and Bruce will anchor the lineup in a good hitter's park. Expect better things from Aaron Harang. Not a bad thing either to play the Brewers, Pirates and Astros a bunch of times.

Jordan: Phillies - Scott's crazy about the Reds. The Phillies may not be as good as last year, because Joe Blanton and Brett Myers will probably return to normalcy. But this team will still be the rest of the rest in the NL, which is not all that strong. Pains me to say it, but St. Louis could win this too.

The Playoffs: The Division Series:

Scott: Cubs defeat the Mets, Dodgers beat the Phillies,
Red Sox top the Mariners, Yankees over the Twins

Jordan: Cubs defeat the Phillies, Mets beat the Dodgers
Yankees over the Athletics, Indians over the Red Sox

The Playoffs: League Championship Series:

Scott: Yankees beat the Red Sox, Cubs over the Dodgers

Jordan: Mets beat the Cubs (Jordan cries), Indians beat the Yankees (Scott cries)

The Playoffs: The World Series:

Scott: Cubs over the Yankees (Jordan is elated, Scott kills Jordan)

First time for everything, right? I picked them a few years back, and I was wrong then. Who knows. Maybe it's because I don't like picking my own team, but this Cubs team seems to darn talented. (Jordan thinks this is crazy but is elated at the thought)

Jordan: Indians top Mets (neither Scott nor Jordan watches)

I've been burned too many times to pick the Cubs. That's why I'll take my boys Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa to earn the glory in October. Plus, the Indians haven't won the series in 60 years or so, and they with a very promising team, they very well might.

The Fantasy Baseball Nerd: All Breakout Team

Alright, I'll be honest, this one is basically for me, so that, at the end of the year, if any of these guys become big, or have break out (or bounce back) type seasons, I'll be able to shove it in anyone's face that I was right (once).

Before we get going, let me clarify what I term as breakout. For me, a breakout season can mean a number of things. It can mean the obvious of just coming from no where to have a huge season, a la Josh Hamilton. It can mean having a big year after many down years, like Ken Griffey Jr. in 2007. It can mean building upon previous good seasons, and putting it all together, like Derrek Lee in 2005. It can mean any of these things, and more. So, just because a guy was good last year, doesn't mean he can't have what I'm calling a breakout year this year.

As always, feel free to rip it apart in the comments.

C - Mike Napoli has already hit 46 homers in his career, 20 of which came last year. But, this year, he's going to do better. I'm talking 30 to 35 homers, better. The average won't be good, but with health and finally some full-time duties behind the plate, the burly catcher will rip it up. With that said, still don't expect much more than 80 or so RBIs.

1B - This is a tough one, because a lot of these guys have already had pretty good seasons. For instance, I'm one of many that thinks Joey Votto is going to have a big year, but it's not much of a surprise considering how well he hit last year. Another guy people have pegged is Billy Butler, who seems like he's been on lists like this for years. If he's healthy, the kid can hit, no doubt. He doesn't have a position, and seems to have more doubles-type power than homer-type power, but I think we'd all be happy with 20 and 100 from Billy B.

2B - A guy a lot of people are mentioning is Aaron Hill, but he already had what I'd call his breakout year two years ago. No, my guy is the speedster Alexi Casilla. Think Luis Castillo, but a better hitter. Way better. And, steals will come for Casilla. He only swiped 7 last year, but in the minors he averaged over 30 steals a season.

SS - Consider this my first divergence from the rules I set up above. Troy Tulowitzki already had his big year, two years ago. But, people seem to have forgotten about him on draft day this year. The guy was injured last year, never got it going, but he hasn't lost his stroke. Not to mention, he'll still be playing his home games at Coors Field, and with Matt Holliday gone, the Rocks will be counting on him to help fill in.

3B - Another guy that's on these lists a lot is Alex Gordon. I've heard that he's starting to try to go the other way more, not pull everything he sees. Which, is all well and good, but I need to see him hit well for more than a two week period before I endorse him. My guy here is another one that isn't really going to "break out". Ryan Zimmerman has had a few good years in his career, but like Tulowitzki, has completely fallen off people's radars. Zim can hit and now that he's healthy (not to mention, with Dunn in the lineup) he should resume his 25/110-type seasons.

OF - Adam Jones will steal at least 25 bases, David DeJesus could drive in over 90 runs batting in the 3-hole this year (if Bengie Molina can do it from the cleanup spot...), Coco Crisp with more playing time and no media to harass him should return to pre-Boston stats, once B.J. Upton returns on the 13th, he will tear it up (think power of 2007, speed of 2008), and not too far form 20/25 last year, Lastings Milledge will do big things from the leadoff spot for the Nats. I wouldn't sleep on Elijah Dukes either, who, if he keeps himself on the field, would be hard pressed not to go at least 20/20.

SP - They say the second year after Tommy John surgery is when you see a return to form, expect that from Francisco Liriano. He won 15 games last year, but Ricky Nolasco's ceiling is somewhere in the atmosphere. Matt Cain has only won 15 games the last two years while pitching to solid ERAs both times. I wouldn't expect his luck to be so poor for a third straight year. Figure between 12 and 16 wins. Another guy that's shown a ton of promise is Johnny Cueto, who I'd expect more consistency out of in his second full year. Bounce back year for Fausto Carmona, that heavy sinker is too good to ignore.

Again, I'm leaving off relievers because they're just too damn flimsy.

So, there you have it, my picks for guys to have break out or bust out or big or unexpected or kind of expected years. Agree, disagree, or simply ignore. You're choice. But, I'll still say I told ya so.

The Picks - Post Season Award Talk

Arguably, the most ridiculous of all of the pre-season predictions are the awards. Which player will be the most valuable to his (or her) team? Which pitcher will have the best season? How about best rookie? The questions themselves seem simple enough, but when asked before a pitch has been thrown, they're a bit silly.

But, nonetheless, it's tradition. Before every baseball season, even if it's only in your own head, you have to think of some predictions, even if that only means picking your Silver Sluggers (and if that's your thing, more power to you...get it, more power to you. bah dumpt, chhhh). And so, Jordan and I have berned long and hard over these, stewing and brewing over predictions that will more than likely fall by the wayside due to injury or incompetence (on either the players' or our parts).

So, without further ado, the 2009 Berning On Sports Pre Season Award picks...

AL Rookie of the Year:

Jordan: Matt Wieters, BAL

Assuming he plays most of the season, this guy is bound for stardom. I expect once he comes up in May he'll hit near .300 and hit 15-20 home runs while making a big impact on the Orioles both offensively and defensively.

Scott: Same, BAL

I don't really know many other rookies. He's supposed to be good.

NL Rookie of the Year:

Jordan: Colby Rasmus, STL

This guy has been in the minors longer than the Cardinals wanted him there because of an already crowded outfield. Assuming he'll get plenty of at-bats this season, he'll do well because he plays for St. Louis and if you play for them, you hit, no matter what your name is.

Scott: Come on. My only other guess, Daniel Murphy, NYM. He'll bat second, and they say the kid can really rake, so long as his lack of a real position doesn't kill the Mets too bad.

AL Cy Young Award: J

Jordan: Jon Lester, BOS

He's an excellent pitcher primed for a huge year. With the benefit of a winning club that has a great offense, he'll win a lot of games, and statistically he's as good as anyone.

Scott: Roy Halladay, TOR

I love the pick of Lester, and while I'd love to echo Jordan's sentiment's a third time, I'm going to stay in the division, but head further north. The only thing holding him back is that he might not get enough wins playing for such a poor team, but his stuff and track record show nothing other than greatness and no signs of slowing.

NL Cy Young Award:

Jordan: Jake Peavy, SD

This one is harder because there are so many dynamite pitchers in the National League. But the 2007 Cy Young is going to be pitching with the extra motivation of wanting to be traded from San Diego so he'll have a huge year. The only way he doesn't get consideration is if he doesn't win enough games because his offense is so bad.

Scott: Johan Santana, NYM

This might seem like a pick made based on the fact that I live in his area, but he'd have likely won it if the Mets had any semblance of a bullpen at any point last season. He won 16 games with a league leading ERA last year, and now he has Frankie Rodriguez and J.J. Putz to lock down a few more W's for the resume.

AL Most Valuable Player:

Jordan: Mark Teixeira, NYY

The MVP almost always comes from one of the best teams that is playoff bound. Big Tex is a fantastic player as it is, but now he'll be the focal point of an already excellent offense since A-Rod will begin the season on the DL.

Scott: Justin Morneau, MIN

With Joe Mauer out of the lineup for a chunk of time, the Twins will count on the Canadian to pick up the slack, and he will. He might not slug you to death, but Morneau will carry the Twins all the way to a division title.

NL Most Valuable Player:

Jordan: Manny Ramirez, LAD

He's playing his first full season in the National League, which he destroyed last year. I understand it was in a contract year, but the guy mashes no matter where he is. The Dodgers will likely be NL West champs again, and Manny will be credited with leading them there.

Scott: Albert Pujols, STL

This is a give-up pick, but here's how I look at it: the guy's always great (which, I know can work against him for this award, a la Kobe Bryant or even Shaq), and no one on the Cubs stands out to me as a guy that would clearly deserve an MVP award. So, Pujols it is, if even by default. Again.

Jamaal Tinsley: Where Have You Gone

It seems like it was only yesterday, my shaved headed, balding, questionably overweight point guarded friend, that you were turning the ball over at a rapid rate on a nightly basis.

Alas, you've been out of the media spotlight, or any spotlight for that matter, for quite some time now. Where are you, I wonder, as this 2009 NBA season comes to a close without so much of single glimpse of the former Cyclone.

Jamaal "Mel Mel The Abuser" Tinsley had it rough, right from jump street of his NBA career. In what would turn out to be a ill portent of things to come in his career, he was drafted near the bottom of the first round in 2001 to the Vancouver Grizzlies. Almost immediately, no one wanted him. On draft night, he was shipped to Atlanta, and from there, to Indiana. Three cities, one night.

"It was rough, no doubt," Tinsley said, reflecting on his early career. "I mean, I'd never been to Vancouver before, so when I heard that they had picked me, I was like, f**k that. Then, Atlanta woulda been aight, I mean, I hear there's a lot of black people there. But, damn, Indiana? How many black people are there?"

Unfortunately, a few too many, to the detriment of Tinsley's career, as it would turn out. If Anthony Johnson and Kenny Anderson hadn't been playing for the Pacers a few years into his career, Tinsley might have kept his starting job. It was not to be.

From that point forward, erratic play, weight issues, and other attitude related issues have plagued the Rucker Park-made point guard.

"Yeah, it was a struggle," Tinsley admitted. "There were times, no question, when I thought, hell with it, I'm gonna go back and play ball at the Rucker again. Forget this whole NBA thing. But then, I thought, nah, f**k that."

Only three times has he played over 70 games in a season. Only three times has he averaged over 10 points a game.

But, throughout his short career, he has turned the ball over at a phenomenal rate, and coupled with a sagging shooting percentage, few, including Tinsley himself, could figure out why he was treated so poorly this year.

"Basically, they were like, we ain't gonna need you for practice tomorrow. So I'm like, cool, day off. I'll see you tomorrow then? And they're like, nah, not then either. So I'm thinking, wow, four day weekend! But then, they were like, nah, it's not like that. We're just not gonna need you for anything. At all. Any more."

Suffice to say, he was stunned, and how could you blame him? He had played 39 full games the previous season, and managed to shoot under 40% for a second consecutive year.

"You know how hard it is to shoot that bad? I mean, everytime down, I'm thinking, what's the worst possible shot I can take, the worst decision I can make to derail my team's chances of scoring? Maybe a no-look? How about some wrap-around s**t? Or one of them pull-up, fadeaway joints? Point is, it ain't easy being as unreliable as I was."

Effectively, the Pacers put Jamaal Tinsley in timeout. For the rest of the year. He has been sent home, his name removed from the locker room, his memory erased from the minds of millions. His grievance case will likely be heard in the coming months, but, at this point, who really cares?

"I have to be honest, I'm kind of getting used to this whole getting paid for doin' nothing thing. It's kinda hot," a relaxed Tinsley said, sipping a Dunkachino outside his home earlier this week.

And so for now, dear friends, the question isn't, "where have you gone, Jamaal Tinsley?" but, more appropriately, "why did you not go there sooner?"

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