The Monday Morning Longsnapper

Credit Where Credit Is Due Edition

Jordan did have this game picked right, but, most people didn't give the Cardinals much of a chance in this game.  Most people didn't give the Cardinals credit a week ago, in Carolina.  Some even doubted their chances to beat the young Falcons, two weeks before that.  And now, for the third week in a row, they've shut us all up.  Except for Jordan.

What most people doubted (if I can confidently speak for the masses) was Arizona's defense.  People questioned whether or not a defense that was in the bottom five in the NFL in points allowed would be able to slow the Eagles.  Now, no one was confusing the Eagles with an offensive juggernaut but for whatever reason, we (at least, I) felt like stopping Atlanta and Carolina in consecutive weeks was merely happenstance.

Crushing DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart (not to mention making Jake Delhomme look like he was 70 years old) just wasn't enough to convince people.  Neither, apparently, was derailing another 2009 elite running back in Michael Turner and forcing 3 turnovers out of Matt Ryan.  Wasn't enough.  

Too soft, not a big game defense.

Then, they went up 21-6 in the first half, forced Donovan McNabb to make throws he didn't want to make, and generally had the heat on the Eagles in that first half.  Things certainly slowed down a bit in that third quarter for the Cards defense, but, the '85 Bears they ain't.  

The simple truth is that the Cardinals, lead by Jesus Christ and his lone disciple Kurt Warner, are a good team.  They weren't a good team all season, they were never the best team at any point in the season.  But, unfortunately for the Panthers and Giants and Eagles and any other team in the NFC, that's just not how it works.  

• Eagles Fans:  That wasn't a missed pass interference call on your second to last pass of the season.  Two things, Kevin Curtis (still my man), was falling down anyway, and McNabb's pass was offline as it was.  Not a PI, sorry.
• Some part of me feels good for the Cardinals.  If I had told you, two years ago, that in the same sports year, the "Devil" Rays would be playing in the World Series, and the Cardinals would be playing in the Super Bowl, there's no way you'd have believed me.  What's next, are the Nationals going to beat the Globetrotters?  Has the world gone completely mad?  Let me guess, the economy's going to tank too, and we're going to have a black president, right?  Sure...
• Brian Westbrook has to be more hurt than he lets on, because when you look back at the three games he played in, he really only had one play of note which was the long screen pass in the Minnesota game.  That was about it.  Average or bad the rest of the way.
• Players that probably wish they didn't play football professionally on Sundays:  Corey Ivy, Willis McGahee (ankle), Willis McGahee (neck)...and anyone else on Troy Polamalu's side of the field at any given time.
• On that note, obviously you hope McGahee comes out OK from the scare he got on the field yesterday.  I've never been a big fan of him, especially after his comments regarding night life in Buffalo, but the kid's tough.  He tore up basically everything possible in his knee in college, was banged up this year, and now this neck injury.  Word was he was moving his arms and legs and speaking easily, so those are obviously good signs.
• The score may have been close, but Baltimore wasn't really in the game as much as it may have seemed.  They seemed to be waiting on a big play, which Joe Flacco has been able to deliver fairly often.  But, against this Steelers D it just wasn't to be.  I expected him to fold completely after the early interception, but to his credit he held it together.  The pressure he never seemed to get a break from, the nearly flawless downfield coverage his receivers faced--it was just too much.  The Steelers D isn't particularly flashy, but they just hit you hard, and often and right in the mouth.
• Lastly, Limas Sweed, if you ever, ever, ever ever ever ever ever (sorry got sick of using commas) drop a pass again like the one at the end of the first half where you're wide open with a chance to blow open the game, I will personally come to Pittsburgh and smack the hell out of you.

Results from NFL Championship Weekend

You win some, and you lose some, as the cliche goes. And Scott and I went 1-1. The Cardinals did more than cover, as the 32-25 score doesn't really describe how well the Cardinals played.
However despite their best efforts, the Ravens couldn't cover the 5.5, as the once turnover-proof Joe Flacco couldn't decipher which color his team was wearing. Three interceptions by Flacco did in the cover, as Troy Polamalu ran one back 40 yards for a touchdown to take the two point Steeler lead (covering) to a nine point lead (no longer covering). So kudo's to Scott on that one, because while I thought Pittsburgh would win I thought the Ravens would keep it closer.

For the playoffs, in the paraphrased words of Around the Horn's Tony Reali, "Heeeeere's how we stand:

Scott: 6-3 (1-1 this weekend)
Jordan: 3-6 (1-1 this weekend

It's no secret my picks have been bad, so I don't even need to waste my time relaying that information to you once again. All I can say is, if I get the Super Bowl right, that would provide a small vindication for my poor performance throughout the season. Stay tuned.

As for the games, Scott will have that tomorrow in the Monday Morning Longsnapper. But, a couple of quick thoughts from me:

• Once again, even if Kurt Warner wins the Super Bowl, he's NOT a hall of famer. The Eagles not winning did not help Donovan McNabb's case either. For me, neither should ever be enshrined in Canton.
• Larry Fitzgerald is really, really good. That guy could break some records if he stays healthy throughout his career.
• Joe Flacco reminded us he's a rookie. I guess no one can commend him any more for not throwing picks, not getting sacked, or not costing his team games. That said, impressive for a rookie they got this far.
• Now for the storyline that's going to get overplayed for the next two weeks: Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt was the Steelers offensive coordinator the last time Pittsburgh won the Super Bowl.
• And, so much for those #6 seeds, as both went down today.

Everything You Need To Get Ready For NFL Championship Weekend

Philadelphia (-3.5) @ Arizona

This match-up may be the best example of parity existing in the NFL. Not many people thought coming into this post season that the sixth seeded Eagles would be facing the least successful division winner for the right to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. I guess that's why you always hear the old cliche "that's why you play the games".

This contest provides tremendous intrigue still, especially when you consider the storylines present. As I mentioned earlier this week, I think there's no way Kurt Warner is deserving of a hall of fame bid, but if Warner elevates another team to a Super Bowl, expecially the Cardinals, it would make him a legend in Arizona. As for Donovan McNabb, every win this post season is helping his case for future consideration.

That said, it has been Warner who has played outstanding football in this post season, while McNabb has been just good enough for his Eagles to win. Warner has completed nearly 63% of his passes this post season, has thrown for 491 combined yards, and has fired four touchdown passes while only throwing two picks. And maybe most impressively, Warner led his team into Carolina last week and pummeled a Panthers squad that was a perfect 8-0 at home in the regular season.

What's more, the Cardinals much maligned defense has been stellar too, as they have caused a whopping nine turnovers in their two playoff games, including six last week. Panthers QB Jake Delhomme had probably the worst game of his career, as Arizona intercepted five of his passes and caused him to fumble as well. So entering Sunday's contest, Arizona couldn't be playing better on defense. Oh, and Anquan Boldin is expected to play, so the offense that dominated Carolina last week could be healthier and better.

Now to McNabb and the Eagles. Sunday's NFC Championship will be the fifth Donvan has lead the Eagles to in the last eight years, so experience is no problem for the former Syracuse signal caller. He was very good in the Eagles win over the Vikings in the first round of the playoffs throwing for 300 yards and a touchdown, and in last week's game against a good Giants defense McNabb did just enough to help the Eagles win the contest. Oh, and against the Cards this year on Thanksgiving night, (the game nobody saw because it was on the NFL Network), McNabb threw for 260 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 48-20 romp.

Philly's defense has been stifling, allowing an average of 12.5 points per game over their two contests. In that regular season win over the Cardinals on Turkey night, the only reason Arizona even got to 20 points was due to some garbage points at the end. They intercepted Kurt Warner three times in the game and held the Cards rushing offense to a mere 25 yards that night. I wouldn't expect a complete domination against Arizona tomorrow, but you know defensive coordinator Jim Johnson will send the house on the blitz early and often to force Warner to repeat those same mistakes.

The Cardinals are trying to reach the Super Bowl for the first time in team history, and it's going to be a tough one for them to win. The guys in Vegas think so too, as the Cardinals are home underdogs despite the fact they went 7-2 at home this season including their playoff win over Atlanta. It would be fun to see a team that perenially stinks make the Super Bowl just for the intrigue of it, but part of me wants to see Donovan McNabb finally win the Super Bowl. I'll take Arizona to cover the 3.5 point spread, and keep it close, but I'd like to see the Eagles win. (So now that I'm picking Arizona, Philly fans, book your tickets for Tampa.)

Scott's Pick: Philadelphia Jordan's Pick: Arizona

Baltimore (+5.5) @ Pittsburgh

The Ravens colors might be black and purple, and the Steelers might be black and gold. But this game figures to be black and blue the whole way through. These two teams are very similar, in that they both ranked in the top three in defense (Steelers #1, Ravens #3) during the regular season, and they rely on their defenses to set up their offense. The biggest difference, however, is the quarterback play.

Here's a basic mathematical principle that we can all understand:

Ben Roethlisberger > Joe Flacco

In the Steelers win over the Chargers last week, Ben Roethlisberger made plays to help Pittsburgh earn a hard fought win. Even though he did have the help of Willie Parker's 146 yards rushing, Roethlisberger threw a touchdown pass to Heath Miller and completed 65% of his passes to lead the Steelers to victory. The rookie Flacco, on the other hand, in two post season games, has completed just 44% of his passes, and has thrown for 296 combined yards. The key is that he hasn't thrown a pick. He doesn't make plays, but he doesn't make bad plays. That's probably the biggest reason the Ravens have survived the first two playoff rounds.

The defenses are excellent, and they're both opportunistic. In last week's win over the Chargers, Phillip Rivers threw an interception to Larry Foote inside the ten yard line which completely turned the momentum in favor of the Steelers. Especially when you consider that the play before was a Darren Sproles punt return into the red zone. It's no secret the Ravens defense has been unbelievable too, considering they made big red zone stops against the Titans last week, and Ed Reed ran wild on the Dolphins in the first round with 64-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Reed's pick was one of four the Ravens would get against a normally smart quarterback in Chad Pennington. So expect points to come at a premium tomorrow.

To pick this game, I use this logic: Both teams have great defense. Both have similar philosophy on offense, preferring to run the football to set up the pass. The Steelers have a dynamic special tems presence in Santonio Holmes, who returned a punt for a touchdown last week. But it's not like the Ravens can't cover him for one game. They have played each other twice already this season, and the Steelers won both contests. Often times, teams have trouble beating a team three times in the same season, but the Ravens wanted this match-up, openly rooting for Pittsburgh to beat San Diego last week after they beat Tennessee the day before.

The Steelers are a great team. They were 12-4 in the regular season. They earned the first round bye, but have less momentum entering this week's game because the Ravens had to win twice to get here. There's a reason for that, though: they're better than this Ravens team. They were during the regular season, and they're 7-2 at home including last week's playoff win. The Steelers have a tough spread to cover, so I'm taking the Ravens. But the Steelers should eek out this game in a close one.

Scott's Pick: Pittsburgh Jordan's Pick: Baltimore

Everything You Need To Get Ready For the the NFL's Divisional Round

Baltimore (+3) @ Tennessee

The Titans earned the right to home field throughout the playoffs, but they're probably the least dangerous top seeded team in recent years. Granted, that was because it was usually the Patriots on top of the AFC, and last year they entered the playoffs 16-0. But this Titans team can't possibly scare the Ravens, who come to town Saturday night.

The Titans have an excellent running game, featuring rookie Chris Johnson and the stout and mighty LenDale White. But Kerry Collins is a very ordinary quarterback, and their most productive receiver was Mizzou's own Justin Gage, who had just 651 yards. The Titans running game is good, but it can be stopped. The miserable Chicago Bears defense held this vaunted running game to 20 yards in week 10, and could easily be stopped by an excellent Ravens defense.

The Ravens defense last week single-handedly won the game against the Dolphins last week, by creating 5 Miami turnovers in a 27-9 convincing win. Joe Flacco went just 9-23 passing for 135 yards, but Chad Pennington threw 4 picks, including one that came back 64 yards for an Ed Reed touchdown. They're the sexy pick right now to upset Tennessee after the way they played last week, but keep in mind Jeff Fisher is an excellent coach who will have his team ready. Still, I like the Ravens, considering that defense wins championships (cliche but true), and while the Titans D is good, the Ravens' D is better, and hotter.

Scott's Pick: Baltimore Jordan's Pick: Baltimore

Arizona (+10) @ Carolina

Somehow, the Cardinals showed up last week and actually played a good game. Arizona stumbled into the playoffs playing pitifully, having lost four of six. But against Matt Ryan's Falcons, 'Zona played great defense, intercepting the rookie QB twice and even recording a safety. Arizona's offense played great, as Kurt Warner threw for 271 yards and 2 touchdowns, and he looked like the man many were considering an MVP candidate earlier in the season.

But it's no secret the Cardinals don't win on the road. The Cardinals were just 3-5 away from sunny Glendale and Carolina did not lose at home. That's right. The Panthers went 8-0 in Charlotte this season. So by any measuring stick, this is not an easy game for the Cardinals to come in and win, especially when you consider Arizona's last road win came at lowly Seattle November 16th.

Carolina only lost 4 games this season, and already beat the Cardinals at home, 27-23. The Panthers have won four of their last five games too, the only loss coming at the Giants, who hold the #1 seed in the NFC. Carolina has a good running game, and good receivers. They have a good defense, and solid special teams. They are a definite force in this year's playoffs and will win this game. With the line being 10 however, it's hard to pick a playoff game to have that wide a margin. That's why I'll pick Arizona to cover, even if they barely cover it.

Scott's Pick: Carolina Jordan's Pick: Arizona

(Then again though, go with Scott. Remember, I'm 0-4 in this year's playoffs.)

Everything You Need To Get Ready for Wild Card Weekend

Sunday Edition

Here are the results of Saturday's picks:

As usual, Scott fared better than me.  We both lost with the Cardinals defeating "our" Falcons in the afternoon game.  Scott won the night cap as the Chargers got some help from the referees and an outrageous performance by Darren Sproles to beat the Colts at home.  So Scott went 1-1, and the self-proclaimed "blithering idiot" (Jordan), went 0-2.

Baltimore (-3) @ Miami

Now that the Dolphins successfully completed the worst to first story line after beating the Jets in New York last week, they'll face a very tough six seed in the Ravens on Sunday.  Ravens QB Joe Flacco has been an excellent game manager this year, as Scott pointed out in the Saturday edition of this preview.   But if he performs like the other rookie quarterback in this year's playoffs, Falcons QB Matt Ryan, it's going to be a quick exit for the Ravens.  

On the other side of things, while the Dolphins are the higher seed and have the home game, they are the underdogs because the Ravens were really a better version of them this season.  The Ravens offense ranked 11th in the NFL this season while the Dolphins ranked just 21st.  On the defensive side of the ball, Baltimore, known for its stifling defense ranked 3rd in the league, allowing just over 15 points per game.  Miami's defense was much improved and very good this year too, but ranked 9th in the league allowing almost 20 points per game.

By the numbers, the Ravens would obviously have the edge.  But the Dolphins have continued to silence their critics this season after an excellent 11-5 run in a tough AFC East.  And, whenever it seems the Dolphins aren't supposed to win, they continue to do so time and time again.  That's why I like Tony Sparano's 'Fins in the early match-up.  But, why listen to me?  I'm always wrong.

Scott's Pick:  Baltimore Jordan's Pick:  Miami

Philadelphia (-3) @ Minnesota

After their infamous tie against the Bengals in which Donovan McNabb idiotically admitted he didn't know an NFL game could end in that fashion, the beleaguered QB has been nothing short of spectacular since.  He has thrown 9 touchdown passes and 1 interception during that stretch, and has once again silenced his critics and the lunatic Eagles fans that were once again ready to run him out of town.  Despite the Eagles up and down season, and their bizarre 9-6-1 record, Philadelphia is a dangerous team to tangle with in the playoffs.  Under Andy Reid, the Eagles have never lost a first round playoff game, and they have reached the NFC Championship four times.

The Vikings on the other hand have had a series of disappointments in the playoffs recently.  Then again, they usually burn out and fail to make it to the post season, but with Chicago's loss in Houston last week the Vikes clinched before their win over the Giants on a last second field goal by Ryan Longwell.  While they have an incredible running game with the incomparable Adrian Peterson and former feature back Chester Taylor, their passing game is their X-factor.  If Tavaris Jackson (or maybe even Gus Frerotte) is bad, conventional wisdom would suggest the Vikings have no chance of being serious playoff contenders.  It's likely that Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson will challenge the Vikings quarterbacks to beat them and stuff the box to contain Peterson.  If they can get some solid QB play, however, this could be a long day for the Eagles.  The Metrodome is one of the loudest and most difficult venues for road teams in the NFL.

The Eagles are a better team than the Vikings, but the Vikings defense can keep the Philly offense in check.  And with the Vikings having home field advantage and a lot to prove in this year's playoffs, expect them to come up with a big victory at home against the Eagles.

Scott's Pick:  Philadelphia Jordan's Pick:  Minnesota