Hump Day Headlines: Thursday Edition

I realize this week's Hump Day Headlines didn't come on Wednesday. Sorry, I was working. Sue me if you don't like it.

In this week's Hump Day Headlines, since it's late, we present the schedule of tournament watching so that those of you who are getting ready to watch games, (like I am) know when and where your team will be playing.

Early Games:

(8) L.S.U vs (9) Butler (Greensboro, NC) 12:20 p.m. ET
Comment: This is one of those classic first round match-ups for people who hate small conference teams and are hoping that the S.E.C's Tigers of Louisiana State win just to prove a point. I picked L.S.U. to win, because I like Tasmin Mitchell.

(2) Memphis vs (15) C.S. Northridge (Kansas City, MO) 12:25 p.m. ET
Comment: I don't know anything about C.S. Northridge. All I know is if Memphis loses, I'm screwed. So obviously I picked Memphis. And for the record? If there's a rare 15 over 2 upset, I don't think it'll be this one.

(8) B.Y.U. vs (9) Texas A&M (Philadelphia, PA) 12:30 p.m. ET
Comment: B.Y.U. can usually pick up a win in the tournament every year. They're always a solid choice. However I took the "upset" with A&M. Speaking of which, how dumb is it when the experts say that a 9 over an 8 is an upset?

Mid-Afternoon Games:

(5) Purdue vs (12) Northern Iowa (Portland,OR) 2:30 p.m. ET
Comment: If you're looking for the 5-12 upset, you likely won't find it here. With a healthy Robbie Hummel, Purdue is a very good squad. And he is healthy now.

(1) North Carolina vs (16) Radford (Greensboro, NC) 2:50 p.m. ET
Comment: Ty Lawson isn't playing, but does it really matter? It's a home game for Carolina against freaking Radford.

(7) California vs (10) Maryland (Kansas City, MO) 2:55 p.m. ET
Comment: Cal is playing the "no one respects us" card because everyone is picking Maryland. They're from the ACC, they beat Carolina, Scott Van Pelt has been propogating love for them on ESPN...so maybe Cal wins? I still took the Terps.

(1) Connecticut vs (16) Chattanooga (Philadelphia, PA) 3:00 p.m. ET
Comment: Jimmy Fallon started a Chattanooga cheering section on his brutal new late night show on NBC. UConn was going to win anyways, but since Fallon is behind Chattanooga the team has a worse chance of winning now.

Early Evening Games:

(4) Washington vs (13) Mississippi State (Portland, OR) 4:55 p.m. ET
Comment: I know that there's a love fest now for Mississippi State because they shocked everyone by winning the automatic bid with an S.E.C. title victory. But this is basically a home game for the Huskies. Adios, M. State.

Evening Games:

(7) Texas vs (10) Minnesota (Greensboro, NC) 7:10 p.m. ET
Comment: This should be a really good game if you get this in your area. Both teams had great starts and fizzled toward the end, but they're both talented clubs. I had a lot of trouble picking this game in my brackets, and I think I made a selection for who wins this one in each.

(7) Clemson vs (10) Michigan (Kansas City, MO) 7:10 p.m. ET
Comment: Michigan's 11-year tournament drought is over thanks to new coach John Beilein. Scott loves the Wolverines, but I'm feeling Oliver Purnell getting his Tigers to their first tourney win under his watch.

(3) Villanova vs (14) American (Philadelphia, PA) 7:20 p.m. ET
Comment: This literally is a home game for Villanova. They play all there big games on this very court at the Wachovia Center. Sorry American, but you were dealt the most unfair draw in the tournament. Nova will roll, or they're a disgrace.

(4) Gonzaga vs (13) Akron (Portland, OR) 7:25 p.m. ET
Comment: This has nothing to do with the game, but I'm still pissed that Syracuse football lost to Akron's Zips back in the 2nd week of the football season. Therefore, I hope the Zags win by 50. By the way, anyone notice this is a meeting between the Zips and the Zags?

Late Games:

(2) Duke vs (15) Binghamton (Greensboro, NC) 9:4o p.m. ET
Comment: I forgot about this one, probably because even though Tony Kornheiser's alma-mater is making its first ever NCAA tournament appearance, the Dukies are playing a game close to home and are motivated by previous tournament flops not to let it happen again early this year.

(6) U.C.L.A. vs (11) V.C.U. (Philadelphia, PA) 9:50 p.m. ET
Comment: U.C.L.A. hasn't been very impressive as of late, losing in big spots when they needed victories late to wrap up the Pac-10 regular season and then tournament crowns. I have a feeling V.C.U. which beat Duke in the tournament not too long ago, adds this upset win to its resume.

(5) Illinois vs (12) Western Kentucky (Portland, OR) 9:55 p.m. ET
Comment: It is en-vogue to pick against Illinois in this game, as many figure this to be the 5-12 upset. If Chester Frazier doesn't play, the Illini probably lose. If he does play though, Illinois can play defense, and the lack of respect card as motivation to win and prove the doubters wrong.

Enjoy the games!

Why Records Don't Matter (In College Basketball)

Nearly ever team ranked in the Top 25 has an excellent record.  That's why they're ranked in the Top 25.

The top few teams have one loss.  The teams at the bottom of the rankings fit into one of two categories: either they are teams that no one thought would be there, so they have great records (#25 Illinois is 17-3), or they are teams that people expected to be better, haven't quite fulfilled expectations, but are still considered quality teams (#19 Notre Dame is 13-7).  So every team in that group is in the same ball park, generally.

Everyone always talks about records.  But the biggest difference between all of these teams is coaching.  Coaching determines the type of characters on a particular team.  Coaching determines philosophy on offense and defense.  Coaching determines how a player reacts when the pressure is on and a player relies on what has been drilled into him in practice by his coach.

That's why teams similar in record in college basketball can be completely different.  

They're records don't even begin to tell their stories.

(Yes, the conference a team plays in can have something to do with it.  An exceptionally talented team in a weaker conference can have a gaudy record that they might not have in a better league.  But generally speaking, in conferences of similar talent level, records are inconsequential.)

The best example of this, ironically, might be two teams that have the same colors.  Number 8 Syracuse (at least number 8 until the newest rankings come out Monday) is 17-4, while 25th-ranked Illinois is 17-3.  While they're separated by just one more Syracuse loss, they're completely different in how they're coached.  They got to their similar records in nearly opposite ways.

Syracuse is loaded with talent.  They might have enough talent that if they were better disciplined they could be the best team in the country.  Jonny Flynn and Eric Devedorf are former McDonalds High School All-Americans.  Paul Harris was a High School Jordan All-American.  They've got size on the inside with Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson, and the three-point shooter that every team needs in Andy Rautins.   It's that talent level that suggests to the voters that they should be among the top ten teams in the country by rank.  But they're undisciplined, they don't run an offense, and have lost three of their last four games because of it.

Illinois on the other hand is very disciplined, and lacks the talent of Syracuse.  It's debatable which player on the Fighting Illini is the best, between Demetri McCamey, Chester Frazier, or Mike Davis.    And neither player is really that good.  They don't have a player averaging more than 12.5 points per game (McCamey) and they don't have a player that appears to be equipped to play at the next level.  

But they look like a team poised to surprise people come March, thanks to their disciplined offensive and defensive approach, while Syracuse looks like a team poised to disappoint in the tournament.

It's hard to argue with the success of Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim.  The hall of fame coach has amassed 788 life time wins, which ranks him eighth on the all-time list.  The only names ahead of him are coaching legends: Bob Knight, Dean Smith, Adolph Rupp, Jim Phelan, Mike Krzyzewski and Eddie Sutton.  (And just in case you were wondering, those names are in order from most wins to least.)  Boeheim relies on his talent too much, however.  He puts too much faith in college kids to police themselves on the basketball court and to know how to set up a basket when needed late.  He often doesn't get the best out of his talent on a basis consistent enough to lead it deep into the NCAA tournament.  And with all the talent he stock piles on a yearly basis, Syracuse should be winning games in the tournament year after year.  They haven't won one in four consecutive tournaments.

Bruce Weber on the other hand doesn't have the track record of Boeheim.  He has only been a head coach for ten years.  After serving as an assistant at Western Kentucky in the 1979-1980 season, he was an assistant for the legendary Gene Keady for eighteen years at Purdue.  After a five year run at Southern Illinois where he lead the Salukis to the NCAA Tournament twice (once to the Sweet 16), he's been the coach at Illinois for just five years prior to this season.  He did lead the Fighting Illini to the National Championship in the 2004-2005 season, but he did it with Bill Self's recruits.  Now, in his sixth year, his recruits are finally there, and they're doing well.  He doesn't have the fanfare of a Boeheim, or even close.  But the mark of a Weber coached team is incredible discipline on both sides of the floor.

So when you try to compare a team that is supposed to be in the Top 25, like Syracuse, or a team not supposed to be there, like Illinois, the difference ultimately is which coach can get his players to respond best down the stretch.  While they have nearly identical records now, the team that finishes the season with the most success will likely be the team that is best coached.  Players ultimately win games in any sport, and must execute their game plans well enough to win.  But it's the coaches with the best game plans, especially in college sports, that ultimately leads their teams to victory.

Jim Boeheim has better talent than Bruce Weber.  And he has won far more games all time.  (788 for Boeheim, 248 for Weber)  But it is Weber's team, if both teams continue to play as they are, that will ultimately go further in March.   It's Weber's team that has the discipline and execution to get things done.

They're records right now, and later on, won't matter.